By Abdirahman Dhuxul
Somalia’s path to democracy has been long and fraught with setbacks, yet moments of hope have periodically emerged. From its early aspirations as a democratic pioneer in postcolonial Africa to the modern challenges it faces today, Somalia’s history is deeply intertwined with the complexities of its state-building process.
While incremental progress has been made, much remains to be done to establish a truly democratic system of governance. Today, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud finds himself confronting challenges similar to those faced by his predecessor, Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed (Farmaajo).
Historical Background:
From Promise to Collapse Somalia’s journey toward democracy began in earnest on July 1, 1960, when the country gained independence and became the first African nation to implement universal suffrage. This monumental achievement led to the election of Aden Abdulle Osman as the first president. The early years of independence seemed to herald Somalia as a model for democratic governance in Africa. In 1964 and 1967, Somalia held multiparty elections, further solidifying its democratic credentials.
However, this promising start was short-lived. In 1969, following the assassination of President Abdirashid Ali Shermarke, General Siad Barre led a military coup that dismantled the nascent democracy. Barre’s regime swiftly transitioned Somalia from a multiparty democracy to one party state, where political freedoms were crushed, and opposition voices silenced. This authoritarian rule brought instability that severely undermined democratic institutions in Somalia (Lewis, 2002). By the early 1990s, Barre’s regime collapsed, leading Somalia into civil war, exacerbated by complex clan dynamics. The ensuing violence resulted in the collapse of central governance, leaving the country without a functioning state for over two decades (Samatar, 1992).
The Clan-Based Power-Sharing Formula
In 2000, after years of instability, hope emerged from the Arta Peace Conference held in Djibouti. This conference-initiated efforts to restore political order in Somalia and resulted in the creation of the “4.5 formula,” a power-sharing agreement that allocated parliamentary seats based on Somalia’s major clans: Darod, Digil & Mirifle, Dir, and Hawiye. Smaller clans received proportional representation under this system.
While this formula aimed to ensure representation for Somalia’s deeply divided clans, it also institutionalized clan-based politics. Over time, it led Members of Parliament to prioritize clan interests over those of their constituents. Political races became focused on securing clan privileges rather than addressing policy issues. The method of indirect elections—where clan elders selected representatives—further distanced the population from direct political participation, rendering the system inherently undemocratic (Elmi, 2021).
Despite these challenges, the 4.5 formula remained foundational for political representation in Somalia for many years. Indirect elections were used to select members of parliament and subsequently the president. This system produced several presidents but left persistent questions about the legitimacy of these elections and the fairness of the power-sharing arrangement.
Farmaajo’s Push for Change
In 2017, Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed (Farmaajo) was elected president of Somalia, with a campaign focused on shifting the country toward a more democratic system based on the “one person, one vote” principle. However, his proposed reforms encountered fierce resistance from regional leaders, particularly in Puntland and Jubbaland. As a result, Farmaajo’s efforts to democratize Somalia were met with significant opposition from both entrenched political elites and local power structures (Hirsh, 2019).
The resistance was compounded by deep structural weaknesses within Somalia’s state institutions, including a lack of trust in the electoral process. Many viewed Farmaajo’s push for reform as a power grab rather than a genuine attempt at democratization. Tensions escalated further when he attempted to extend his presidential term beyond the constitutionally mandated four years, an effort widely perceived as authoritarian. This moves sparked protests, political instability, and growing concerns about Somalia’s future. Finally, elections were eventually held in May 2022, they were delayed for over a year, and the indirect election system remained in place, raising doubts about the country’s commitment to true democratic reform (Yusuf, 2022).
Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s Return:
Continuity or Change? Fast forward to Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s return to the presidency in 2022, and Somalia finds itself facing a strikingly similar political landscape. Despite the change in leadership, the core challenges persist: resistance from regional leaders, a lack of national consensus, and deep divisions between the federal government and the Federal Member States (FMS). Hassan, like Farmaajo, has faced criticism for his centralizing governance style, characterized by a top-down approach that often disregards dialogue and marginalizes key stakeholders, particularly from Puntland and Jubbaland. This has further deepened the rift between the federal government and the FMS, fostering a perception of growing authoritarianism (Mohamed, 2021).
Although Hassan’s return was seen as an opportunity for change, his presidency has been marked by the same obstacles that undermined Farmaajo’s efforts: entrenched clan politics, resistance from regional elites, and widespread mistrust in the central government. As the political gridlock continues, it seems increasingly likely that Somalia will revert to the indirect election system, much as it did under Farmaajo’s administration. The failure to forge a more inclusive, consensus-driven approach suggests that Somalia’s path to a functioning democracy remains elusive. The question that remains is: What is the way forward for Somalia to break this cycle of stagnation and move toward a truly democratic future?
What is the Solution for Somalia’s Democratic Future?
Somalia’s history of dictatorship, civil war, and authoritarian rule has left it with a deeply fragmented political system and a population weary of leadership that often appears self-serving and disconnected from the people’s needs. Trust in government is at an all-time low, and for Somalia to truly transition toward democracy, it needs to address the root causes of this distrust and create an inclusive, transparent, and accountable system of governance.
1. Building National Consensus
Somalia’s experience of prolonged civil war and 21 years of dictatorship has left the population with profound grievances. These historical injustices—exacerbated by the clan-based powersharing system—have made it difficult for the country to establish unity and a sense of common purpose. Trust in the state remains fragile, and many Somalis view the government as a tool for elite political power rather than a legitimate institution serving the people’s interests.
Building national consensus in such an environment is a challenging but crucial step toward lasting peace and democracy. National dialogues, reconciliation processes, and inclusive political reforms are key to achieving this goal. Leaders must find common ground and work toward a vision of Somalia that transcends clan loyalty and focuses on the collective welfare of all citizens. Such efforts should focus on healing the divisions created by decades of conflict, and this process must involve not only political elites but also community leaders, civil society organizations, and ordinary citizens.
Examples of post-conflict countries that have struggled with similar issues of mistrust in government include Liberia and Sierra Leone. Both nations, after devastating civil wars, faced deep divisions and skepticism toward their political systems. Liberia, for example, after its 14- year civil war, had to rebuild trust between the people and the state. Efforts such as truth and reconciliation commissions and grassroots peacebuilding initiatives were critical in rebuilding trust and unifying the country. Similarly, Sierra Leone’s efforts to consolidate democracy involved focusing on reconciliation, accountability, and transparency, which were essential for post-war recovery (Kieh, 2007).
For Somalia, the challenge is even more complex due to the legacy of authoritarianism and the powerful influence of clan politics. Building consensus will require a deliberate and sustained effort to address Somalia’s historical injustices and create a government that is seen as inclusive and fair.
2. Strengthening Political Institutions
For Somalia to make meaningful progress toward democracy, it must build strong, transparent, and accountable political institutions. Strengthening the electoral process is central to this effort. The system of indirect elections, which has been in place since the early 2000s, does not adequately represent the will of the people. Direct elections are necessary to ensure that citizens have a real stake in the political process.
Somalia must also establish an independent electoral commission to oversee fair elections, create effective political parties that represent a range of views rather than clan interests, and develop a judiciary that can check executive power. These reforms will lay the foundation for a more functional and legitimate political system.
The creation of an independent judiciary is crucial. For instance, in post-conflict Bosnia-Herzegovina, after its devastating war, the international community helped establish a judicial system that could prosecute war crimes and hold officials accountable, a step that helped rebuild trust in the state (Simic, 2009). Somalia must replicate this approach to ensure that corruption and impunity are not allowed to undermine future democratic reforms.
3. Improving Security and Stability
Security remains one of Somalia’s most pressing challenges. The continued presence of AlShabaab and other armed groups undermines stability, making it difficult for citizens to feel safe and for free elections to take place. While progress has been made in improving security through the Somali National Army (SNA) and AMISOM (African Union Mission in Somalia), much remains to be done.
Improving security is not just about military action but also about strengthening law enforcement and building trust between the people and security forces. Somalia must prioritize security sector reforms to ensure that citizens feel safe to engage in political processes and that elections can be held without fear of violence or intimidation.
4. Addressing Public Trust and Transparency
Addressing the deep mistrust in government is crucial for Somalia’s democratic future. Public distrust stems from a history of corruption, lack of transparency, and unfulfilled promises from past governments. To build trust, Somalia must ensure that the political process is transparent, that accountability measures are in place, and that corrupt practices are dealt with effectively.
Conclusion
Somalia’s path to democracy is fraught with challenges, many of which stem from its history of authoritarianism, civil war, and clan-based politics. As President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud assumes office again, he faces the monumental task of steering the country toward a more inclusive, democratic, and stable future.
While there are no easy solutions, a comprehensive approach that builds national consensus, strengthens political institutions, and ensures greater security and public trust is essential for Somalia’s democratic transformation. Only through sustained efforts in these areas can Somalia hope to overcome its divisions and become a functioning, democratic state.
Abdirahman Dhuxul
Email: [email protected]
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References
Elmi, A. (2021). The 4.5 formula and its impact on Somali politics: A critical review. African Journal of Political Science, 32(4), 135-147.
Hirsh, A. (2019). The struggle for democracy in Somalia: An analysis of Farmaajo’s political reforms. Journal of African Politics, 56(2), 89-104.
Kieh, G. K. (2007). The challenges of post-conflict democracy: Liberia and Sierra Leone in comparative perspective. African Development Review, 19(3), 416-439.
Lewis, I. M. (2002). A modern history of the Somali: Nation and state in the Horn of Africa (4th ed.). James Currey.
Mohamed, M. (2021). Farmaajo’s term extension crisis: A turning point for Somalia’s fragile democracy. Horn of Africa Review, 7(1), 61-74.
Samatar, A. I. (1992). Destruction of state and society in Somalia: Beyond the tribal convention. The Journal of Modern African Studies, 30(4), 625-641.
Simic, O. (2009). Post-conflict justice in Bosnia and Herzegovina: International intervention and domestic challenges. International Journal of Transitional Justice, 3(2), 204-222.
Yusuf, M. (2022). Somalia’s 2022 elections: A reflection of political stagnation or a step toward reform? Horn of Africa Journal, 18(2), 112-125.
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