The growing crisis in Kismaayo has the potential to undermine the Somali Federal Government (SFG). It also threatens to bring the fragile and recovering nation back to the brink of civil war. The crisis risks destabilizing the Horn of Africa region, balkanizing southern Somalia, and creating an opening for al-Shabaab to reassert control in recently recovered areas. It is therefore critical for major stakeholders—the SFG, the Kenyan Government, the Raas Kambooni group, and the international community—to resolve the crisis in Kismaayo immediately.
Contestation for control has been simmering since the city was recovered from al-Shabaab in October 2012. The SFG intends to apply its template for establishing local administrations as it has in Bay and Hiiraan regions. On 15 May 2013, the Kenyan-backed Raas Kambooni group declared the formation of “Jubbaland State” nominally incorporating Lower Jubba, Middle Jubba, and Gedo regions. Al-Shabaab still controls Middle Jubba, and the SFG recently established a local administration in Gedo. Currently the viability of a “Jubbaland” state is tenuous.
Both the SFG and Raas Kambooni are citing the Provisional Constitution to argue their cases. While constitutional ambiguity certainly adds to the complexity of the crisis, the problem ultimately stems from a struggle for authority and resources. The sooner both sides recognize the limits of their authority, the sooner a satisfactory solution to the crisis can be found. A compromise is possible only if both sides are willing to accommodate their differences within the framework of the Provisional Constitution on the sharing of power, resources, and national obligations.
The aspirations of the people of Lower Jubba, Middle Jubba, and Gedo regions must be recognized. The sacrifices made by Raas
Kambooni in recovering Kismaayo from al- Shabaab must also be acknowledged. However, the SFG’s concerns about the inclusivity and transparency of the process that gave birth to “Jubbaland State” also requires careful consideration.
Background
Control of Kismaayo has been contested since the downfall of the central government in 1991. Three factors contribute to the cycle of conflict in the city.
First, the city boasts one of the largest sea ports in the country. In Somalia, sea ports provide the most important source of revenue for authorities. Control of the port provides the resources to extend control in the region.
Second, Kismaayo is one of the most diverse cities in Somalia in terms of clan composition. With a population comprised of more than 30 sub-clans, the persistent struggle for control of resources along clan lines contributes to inter-communal tensions in the region.
Third, Kismaayo is the natural gateway to Somalia’s most fertile territory. Lower Jubba region, of which Kismaayo is the capital, is arguably the richest of all 18 regions in the country. The combination of fertile soils, rich grazing grounds, and abundant marine resources cannot be found elsewhere in the country.
Between 2008 and 2012, Kismaayo was an al- Shabaab stronghold. The group is believed to have generated as much as 40 per cent of its total operating revenue from the city. Enforcing strict and often brutal control the militants provided a modicum of stability for its inhabitants. Since the arrival of the Raas Kambooni group, assisted by a 4,000-strong contingent of Kenyan troops, disputes in the city have re-erupted.
Read full briefing here: The Kismaayo Crisis- Options for Compromise
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