As Somalia faces another confrontation over presidential elections, the former president’s return comes ahead of a planned government-opposition meeting on November 4. The challenge is whether political leaders can put national survival ahead of the struggle to retain power.

MOGADISHU (WDN) — Former Somali President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo returned to Mogadishu on Friday arriving at a politically sensitive moment as Somalia prepares for a new round of talks between the federal government and opposition leaders.

His return comes ahead of a meeting scheduled for November 4, reportedly under the auspices of the international community, aimed at finding an acceptable agreement on the country’s presidential election process.

The talks could offer an important opportunity to avert a deeper political crisis. But their prospects remain uncertain, with growing doubts over whether President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud is prepared to negotiate a genuine compromise with his opponents.

The stakes extend well beyond the next election. Somalia’s fragile federal system is under pressure, and a failure to agree on a legitimate and broadly accepted political process could deepen divisions between the federal government, opposition leaders and federal member states.

A narrow window for political compromise

The planned meeting comes amid conflicting signals from the presidency. According to the report, Hassan Sheikh recently declared that he had no intention of consulting the opposition, raising questions about the government’s commitment to a negotiated settlement.

Political analysts cited in the report argue that the president may be unwilling to bargain over the electoral process and could seek to remain in power beyond the limits of an agreed constitutional and political framework. These are assessments of his intentions, rather than established facts, but they reflect the mistrust surrounding the current impasse.

Farmaajo’s return could carry political significance because of his experience as a former head of state and his potential role in discussions over Somalia’s future. Whether he will participate directly in the negotiations, however, remains unclear.

The immediate challenge is to establish whether the November meeting will be a serious attempt to reach consensus or simply another round of talks that postpones a decision without resolving the underlying dispute.

The danger of allowing the crisis to deepen

Somalia has spent years trying to strengthen its federal institutions, rebuild national security and establish predictable electoral arrangements. Political disputes over the transfer of power threaten to undermine those efforts, particularly when leaders and institutions cannot agree on the rules governing elections.

A prolonged confrontation could further weaken confidence in the federal government, intensify disagreements between Mogadishu and federal member states, and make cooperation on security and economic development more difficult. It could also create opportunities for armed groups and other actors seeking to exploit political divisions.

The consequences would fall most heavily on ordinary Somalis, whose priorities include security, employment, public services and accountable government—not an indefinite struggle between political elites.

Somalia’s international partners also have a stake in the outcome. Their role should be to facilitate a Somali-owned agreement, encourage transparency and insist that all parties respect constitutional procedures. External mediation cannot substitute for political will among Somali leaders.

Saving Somalia requires more than another meeting

The November 4 meeting could become a turning point, but only if participants arrive prepared to make difficult compromises. A credible agreement should establish a mutually accepted electoral roadmap, clarify the legal and constitutional basis for the process, define the roles of federal and state institutions, and provide safeguards against unilateral changes to the rules.

The process must also be inclusive enough to command public confidence. No individual leader or political faction should be allowed to determine the country’s future solely according to its own interests.

Farmaajo’s return is therefore significant less as a political event in itself than as a reminder of the urgency of the moment. Former presidents and opposition figures can help reduce tensions, but responsibility ultimately rests with the sitting government and all political stakeholders.

Somalia does not need another contest in which victory for one side becomes a defeat for the country. It needs a negotiated political settlement that protects constitutional order, preserves the federal system and allows power to change hands through a legitimate process.

The coming talks offer a chance to step back from confrontation. Whether Somalia takes that opportunity—or moves closer to another damaging political rupture—will depend on whether its leaders are willing to place the survival of the state above their own ambitions.

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