By Abdullahi Ahmed Nor
The Elders’ rhetoric
Tensions between the Hawiye clan elders in Mogadishu and the people of South West State (SWS) have reached a dangerous boiling point. Recently, the Hawiye elders publicly disparaged the people of South West State and their Federal MPs, branding them as “boot lickers of Ethiopia.” This inflammatory rhetoric has caused a major stir, with accusations flying that President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud orchestrated the elders’ actions to further isolate the leadership of SWS, particularly President Abdiaziz Laftagareen.
The verbal attacks did not stop at mere insults. The Hawiye elders allegedly threatened the lives of the SWS Federal MPs stationed in Mogadishu, warning them to repent publicly for their supposed allegiance to Ethiopia or face dire consequences. This level of hostility and the open threats of violence have escalated an already volatile political situation, placing SWS Federal MPs in a precarious position. These actions reflect not just a political dispute but an alarming disregard for the rule of law, as the elders seem to operate with impunity, reportedly under the covert blessing of President Hassan.
The President’s alleged involvement in orchestrating these threats further complicates the tense relations between the central government and South West State. Rather than diffusing the situation, Hassan Sheikh is accused of manipulating clan dynamics to consolidate his political power, using Hawiye elders as a tool to intimidate and weaken SWS’s influence. By rallying the Hawiye elders, President Hassan has stoked tribal tensions, exacerbating the already fragile relationship between the federal government and South West State.
This situation adds to a broader pattern of divisive clan politics under Hassan Sheikh’s administration. His reliance on his Hawiye base, particularly the Waasley sub-clan, has alienated other clans, including the Rahanweyn people of SWS. The threats against SWS Federal MPs are seen as another attempt to undermine South West State’s leadership, especially as President Laftagareen prepares to hold the state’s presidential election—a move fiercely opposed by Hassan Sheikh.
The deepening rift between South West State and the central government, combined with the hostile atmosphere in Mogadishu, raises concerns about the stability of Somalia’s fragile federal system. The lack of legal recourse for those threatened, and the perception that President Hassan is behind the attacks, further erodes trust in the federal government’s ability to protect all Somalis, regardless of clan affiliation. It paints a worrying picture of a leader willing to sideline national unity and stability for personal and political gain.
The Civil Service Rhetoric
The incident involving Mr. Bashiir, the Director of the Ministry of Transport and Civil Aviation, is a clear example of how political patronage and tribalism have eroded the moral and ethical fabric of Somalia’s governance. His derogatory remarks, labeling the people of Southwest State as “illegitimate sons and daughters of the Ethiopian forces” and questioning their Somali identity, not only inflamed an already tense situation but exposed the toxic tribalism that underpins much of the current federal leadership.
Bashiir’s rise to power was reportedly linked to his aggressive tactics during Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s election campaign, where he earned favor by discrediting the president’s competitors. This favoritism, driven by clan loyalty rather than competence, has become a hallmark of Hassan’s administration. Despite the severity of Bashiir’s comments while holding a civil servant position, he was not dismissed, highlighting how deeply rooted clan-based patronage is within Villa Somalia. His protection from accountability is seen as a consequence of his tribal affiliation, further intensifying the public’s perception of a government that operates along clan lines rather than national interests.
The role of media outlets like Geylan Media in exposing such scandals, despite threats from Villa Somalia, demonstrates how critical independent journalism is in holding leaders accountable. The fact that the federal government attempted to suppress the release of the incriminating video only adds to the perception that it is shielding its loyalists, regardless of their behavior, further eroding public trust in national institutions.
This incident also ties into the broader political impasse in Somalia, where President Hassan’s government appears increasingly isolated from the federal member states. The dismissal of entire communities, such as those in South West State, aligns with the broader strategy of undermining regional leadership, particularly President Laftagareen. It shows the extent to which the federal government is willing to go, even at the cost of alienating vast segments of the population. By allowing figures like Bashiir to maintain power after such inflammatory remarks, the government is reinforcing a system where tribal allegiance supersedes national unity.
In this climate, South West State’s grievances with the federal government are likely to deepen, particularly as the region moves towards its presidential elections. The ongoing air blockade, the parallel election plans, and now this public insult all serve to drive a wedge between the central government and the federal member states. Bashiir’s comments, rather than being an isolated outburst, reflect a broader political strategy of delegitimizing regional leaders and their supporters—an approach that is unlikely to foster the kind of national unity Somalia so desperately needs.
This centrifugal shift stems from Hassan Sheikh’s tribal favoritism and political mismanagement, which have alienated not just opposition groups but entire federal member states. In South West State, President Abdiaziz Laftagareen’s refusal to toe the line has seen President Hassan Sheikh resort to punitive measures, including the barring of air travel to regions like Baraawe and Hudur. By doing this, Hassan Sheikh seeks to pressure Laftagareen into compliance, but these actions only serve to widen the rift.
Similarly, in Jubaland, President Ahmed Madobe has maintained a staunchly independent stance, focusing on his region’s security, especially concerning Ethiopian forces’ presence to combat Al-Shabaab. Both South West State and Jubaland have long relied on Ethiopian troops to keep Al-Shabaab at bay, and the threat of withdrawing these forces due to tensions between Hassan Sheikh and Ethiopia could undermine the regions’ stability, further estranging them from Mogadishu.
Former President Mr. Mohamed Farmajo’s Warning
Former President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo’s warning that President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s policies would drive “every man back to his village” is proving eerily accurate. Hassan Sheikh’s leadership, rather than fostering national unity, has deepened the divisions within Somalia, particularly with regions like South West State and Jubaland. Under his tenure, these regions have increasingly prioritized their own security and political interests over any alignment with the central government.
What Farmajo anticipated—that these regions would retreat into self-reliance—is now playing out as each federal member state pursues its own agenda, independent of the Federal government. The deployment of Egyptian forces, signed through a controversial defense agreement, is viewed with suspicion by regional leaders. Egypt’s involvement is seen as less about Somali interests and more about countering Ethiopia, leaving regions like Jubaland, South West State, and Hiiraan wary of their long-standing security arrangement being destabilized.
Ultimately, President Hassan Sheikh’s narrow political maneuvering and failure to project himself as a unifying national leader have resulted in a fractured Somalia, where each region increasingly looks to its own resources and alliances rather than to the central government for leadership and protection.
President Hassan Sheikh’s attempts to exert control, such as organizing a parallel election in Baraawe to undermine Laftagareen’s leadership, only reinforce the notion that the federal government is more interested in consolidating its own power than in working towards a unified, stable Somalia. His actions have driven many regional leaders to look after their own political and security interests, confirming President Farmajo’s prediction that President Hassan Sheikh’s policies would fragment Somalia further rather than unite it.
MP Yusuf Geele Ugaas’s Innate Mediation Skills
MP Yusuf Geele Ugaas, known for his strong mediation abilities and coming from a lineage of
chiefs, has distinguished himself as a unifying figure in Somalia’s fragmented political
landscape. In a climate where clan divisions and escalating tensions have plagued the country, he
stood as the only Hawiye MP to take the stage and defend the people of South West State. He not
only publicly apologized to South West Federal MPs on behalf of the Hawiye elders but also
approached those elders, convincing them to retract their venomous statements about the people
of South West State.
This act of diplomacy and reconciliation speaks volumes about MP Yusuf’s character and his
ability to navigate deeply entrenched clan divisions with tact and grace. His efforts contrast
sharply with the wider political environment, where President Hassan Sheikh’s administration is
seen as stoking further division and alienation, particularly among non-Hawiye clans like the
Rahanweyn. By leveraging his “soft power” and innate mediation skills, Yusuf Geele Ugaas has
managed to de-escalate what could have been a far more explosive situation.
In a broader sense, his actions underscore the critical need for leaders in Somalia to rise above
narrow clan interests and work toward a more inclusive and united country. His approach serves
as a model for conflict resolution and political discourse in Somalia, at a time when the country
is fraught with division and distrust.
President Abdi aziz’s Tenacity
By holding the presidential election in South West State, President Abdiaziz Laftagareen positions himself as a key figure, potentially a “savior of Somalia” in the eyes of many regional leaders and citizens. Laftagareen’s ability to oversee the election process in Baidoa would mark a significant victory not only for his leadership but for the broader notion of federalism in Somalia. If he succeeds, the legitimacy of his election could severely undermine President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s political ambitions, particularly his vision of implementing a “one person, one vote” system in Somalia—an ideal that is already facing numerous hurdles.
President Hassan is fully aware of the stakes and is determined to prevent Laftagareen from conducting this election. He knows that if the Baidoa indirect election goes ahead successfully, his dream of instituting a nationwide electoral system based on individual voting could collapse, evaporating into thin air. Hassan’s focus on holding a parallel election in Baraawe, with a handpicked candidate, is a desperate attempt to create an alternative leadership in Southwest State, which he unwisely thinks would allow him to maintain influence and undermine Laftagareen’s growing stature. In reality this exercise of parallel elections cements the principal of indirect election he dreads most thus slaying his euphoria of one person one vote.
President Hassan’s obstruction of President Laftagareen’s plans reveals how far the federal government is willing to go to prevent the regional leader from solidifying his authority. The air travel blockade is just one of several tactics aimed at destabilizing Laftagareen’s administration. But Laftagareen, backed by widespread support in his region and buoyed by his firm stance on key issues, including the continued presence of Ethiopian troops in South West State, remains steadfast in his goal.
Laftagareen’s success could also spell the end of Hassan Sheikh’s broader vision for Somalia. His fight to conduct elections in Southwest State has taken on national significance, and any victory there could ripple through other federal member states, further weakening the central government’s authority.
President Laftagareen’s successful execution of the Southwest State presidential election would represent more than just a political victory for him—it could reshape the federal dynamics of Somalia entirely. For Hassan Sheikh, stopping this election is critical to preserving his hold on power and pushing forward his vision of governance. But as the impasse deepens, the federal government’s influence wanes, and regional leaders like President Laftagareen grow stronger in their defiance.
Conclusion: The Dangers of Political Coercion and External Influence
President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s decision to isolate South West State through the flight ban and his push to introduce Egyptian forces into Somalia are deepening the country’s political and security crisis. The failed mediation efforts by the Prime Minister and the head of NISA highlight the federal government’s inability to exert meaningful influence over its member states, as regional leaders like President Laftagareen remain resistant to federal pressure.
The ongoing political impasse, coupled with the introduction of foreign troops with questionable motives, threatens to destabilize the fragile balance of power within Somalia. The Somali people, long accustomed to resisting Ethiopian influence, are now more concerned with defending their local interests than rallying around a central government that they feel does not represent them.
If the situation continues to deteriorate, Somalia could face further fragmentation, with each region acting as an independent entity, defending itself from both Al-Shabaab and external powers. The deployment of Egyptian forces and the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops not only represent military shifts but also signal a deeper crisis of governance, trust, and national cohesion that threatens to unravel Somalia’s federal structure.
The FGS’s attempts to persuade the leadership of South West State and by extension Jubaland to attend the NCC meeting have failed, highlighting its decreasing influence over these federal member states. Prime Minister Hamza holds significant sway over the regional leaders, and this lack of influence has further deepened the political divide between Mogadishu and the regions. As these FM states assert their autonomy, the central government’s ability to maintain national unity and address pressing issues, such as security and governance, continues to weaken.
Abdullahi Ahmed Nor
Email: [email protected]
We welcome the submission of all articles for possible publication on WardheerNews.com. WardheerNews will only consider articles sent exclusively. Please email your article today . Opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of WardheerNews.
WardheerNew’s tolerance platform is engaging with diversity of opinion, political ideology and self-expression. Tolerance is a necessary ingredient for creativity and civility.Tolerance fuels tenacity and audacity.
WardheerNews waxay tixgelin gaara siinaysaa maqaaladaha sida gaarka ah loogu soo diro ee aan lagu daabicin goobo kale. Maqaalkani wuxuu ka turjumayaa aragtida Qoraaga loomana fasiran karo tan WardheerNews.
Copyright © 2024 WardheerNews, All rights reserved
