By Mohamed Fatah
Since the reelection of President Hassan Sheikh, Somalia has plunged further into dysfunction. The federal government has become increasingly ineffective and disconnected from the needs of its people. The administration has turned into a family affair, sidelining broader representation and undermining democratic principles. This centralization of power within the president’s inner circle has exacerbated political upheaval, fostering an environment where corruption and nepotism thrive, further alienating the Somali populace.
The security situation has deteriorated significantly, with al-Shabaab regaining strength and conducting more attacks. Recent changes to the Somali provisional constitution have only deepened the crisis, stripped the government of its legitimacy, and ignited widespread discontent. President Mohamud’s tenure, marked by these failures, has done more harm than good. With two years remaining, the prospect of further damage looms large. His inability to address critical issues suggests that his continued leadership will further erode the nation’s stability and prospects for peace.
Somalia stands at a critical juncture, teetering on the brink of chaos under President Mohamud’s leadership. When he returned to office on May 15, 2022, the nation braced for a repeat of his first term’s failures, marked by rampant corruption, nepotism, and cronyism. Two years into his second term, these fears have been realized. His government has not only failed to meet expectations but has exacerbated crises, particularly in political stability and security.
A Troubled First Term
During President Mohamud’s first term from 2012 to 2017, his administration was riddled with political and security failures, corruption scandals, and accusations of graft. Key positions within the government and security forces were handed out based on loyalty rather than merit, severely undermining the effectiveness of state institutions. Corruption was rampant, with international aid funds and military assistance often disappearing without a trace. This environment of graft and mismanagement eroded public trust and hindered progress, setting the stage for the many challenges the country faces today.
Some Progress Under Farmaajo-Kheyre
Under the Farmaajo-Kheyre administration, strides were made in governance and security forces development. With training and support from international allies such as Türkiye and the United States, Somali security forces, including the elite Gorgor, Haramcad, and Danab brigades, showed notable improvements. This progress marked a turning point since the collapse of Siad Barre’s government.
Despite these gains, political infighting between President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo, Prime Minister Hassan Ali Kheyre, and later with Prime Minister Mohamed Hussain Roble created a power vacuum and destabilized the federal government, paving the way for Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s return to power. Additionally, the federal government’s efforts to marginalize Puntland and Jubaland weakened them and led to significant political instability, undermining national unity.
President Mohamud’s Second Term: A Repeat of Failures
President Mohamud’s incompetence, coupled with his premature and ill-advised push to fight al-Shabaab, has severely undermined Somalia’s military, police, and security services. Instead of strengthening these critical institutions, President Mohamud and his allies diverted essential support to clan militias (Macawisley), leading to significant security failures in Galmudug and Hirshabelle. By repeating the same mistakes from his first term, President Mohamud has further destabilized Somalia and compromised its security. His current tenure has seen a dramatic decline in the quality and capabilities of these forces, leading to their defeat in several key battles against al-Shabaab.
President Mohamud’s military campaign can only be described as a rush to failure. The once-promising national security forces have been reduced to mere shadows of their former selves, gutted by corruption and mismanagement. The military, police, and National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) have all suffered under his leadership, and the outlook is bleak. As long as President Mohamud remains in power, any hope of defeating al-Shabaab is dashed.
Mohamed Fatah
Email: moafatah@gmail.com
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Mr. Mohamed Fatah is an executive with over 20+ years’ experience in foreign policy, national security, government relations, diplomacy, regulatory and financial crimes compliance.
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