By Dayib Sheikh Ahmed (faracade)

President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud recently alleged in opinion piece on Asharq Al-wasat, that the Houthis rebels—active in Yemen and widely recognized as Iranian proxies—are cooperating with Al-Shabaab, a Sunni extremist group affiliated with Al-Qaeda. This claim, which suggests operational collaboration between two groups with fundamentally opposed ideologies, is not supported by any credible intelligence and reflects a broader pattern of political manipulation by Mohamud’s administration.

There is no evidence of coordination, shared objectives, or ideological alignment between the Houthis, a Zaydi Shia movement, and Al-Shabaab, a Salafi-jihadist organization rooted in hard-line Sunni beliefs. The notion that these two groups have overcome their deep doctrinal divisions to form a strategic alliance has been widely dismissed by regional analysts, security experts, and some intelligence agencies. However, a CNN report noted that some U.S. officials are skeptical that Iran is involved.

Nonetheless, pursuant to a CNN report dated June 11, 2024, officials within the United States intelligence community have assessed that the Houthis movement in Yemen may be engaged in preliminary discussions with the intent to transfer arms to the designated terrorist organization Al-Shabaab operating in Somalia. One official, speaking on condition of anonymity, characterized the alleged interaction as a potential “Tactical alliance” However, at this juncture, no substantiated or admissible evidence has been publicly disclosed to corroborate these claims. While intelligence agencies reportedly continue to surveil the matter, numerous independent analysts have advised caution in accepting these assertions at face value, citing the absence of material proof and the possibility of geopolitical bias influencing such assessments.

While some speculative articles have circulated, no reputable media outlet has definitively confirmed a connection. Even the CNN report of June 11, 2024, which noted that “intelligence raises the alarming possibility of a marriage of convenience,” acknowledged that no conclusive evidence has emerged linking the actors involved. For-instance, there is no direct evidence linking the Houthis and Al Shabab to any such alliance, but the president is trying to mislead the public. What truly matters, however, is not scapegoating or manufacturing external threats, but resolving the deep internal fractures—sectarian, regional, and political that are paralyzing Somalia. President Mohamud appears more focused on choreographing a narrative of foreign conspiracy than addressing the widening rifts within the country. Instead of healing the wounds of a divided nation, he is presiding over an increasingly fragmented house—a house in disarray under his watch and, more alarmingly, at his command. His administration’s obsession with external distractions masks a dangerous neglect of governance, unity, and national reconciliation. In the face of mounting economic hardship, constitutional uncertainty, and threats to federalism, President Mohamud’s leadership continues to stoke division, alienate federal member states, and erode public trust. The Somali people deserve a leader who prioritizes the nation’s integrity over personal political survival.

 So why make such a claim?

The answer lies not merely in security strategy, but in the calculated use of geopolitics and financial appeal. By invoking the Houthis—a well-known threat to Gulf nations such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)—President Mohamud appears to be strategically aligning Somalia’s narrative with the prevailing regional security anxieties of these influential powers. This move is far from accidental; it reflects a broader attempt to reposition Somalia as a vital player in the regional security architecture of the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.

By portraying Somalia as an emerging frontline in the struggle against the Houthis, who are widely seen as proxies for Iran’s broader ambitions in the region, Mohamud is sending a clear yet indirect message: Somalia is relevant to Gulf security, and therefore deserving of Gulf resources. The president’s rhetoric seems designed to evoke a sense of urgency among Gulf leaders, suggesting that Somalia’s stability—or its vulnerability—has a direct bearing on their own national security.

Importantly, this narrative reframing serves a dual purpose. On one hand, it seeks to tap into the geopolitical fears of Iranian expansionism, particularly through non-state actors like the Houthis, without the political risk of directly naming Iran. On the other hand, it functions as a diversion—an attempt to draw attention away from the Somali government’s underwhelming domestic counterterrorism record and toward an externalized threat that resonates more with regional power dynamics.

This subtle yet deliberate geopolitical messaging is essentially a plea for military and financial backing, cloaked in the language of shared regional interests. By emphasizing transnational threats, the administration hopes to unlock Gulf funding, security partnerships, and possibly even intelligence cooperation—resources that could bolster its position both at home and abroad. However, without corresponding reforms in governance, accountability, and coordination on the ground, such external support may end up propping up a weak system rather than empowering a resilient one.

Fear-Mongering as a Substitute for Strategy

Rather than confront the root causes of Somalia’s instability—entrenched corruption, fragmented governance, and unresolved clan rivalries—Mohamud’s government has repeatedly resorted to fear-based appeals. His claim about Houthi–Al-Shabaab cooperation is just the latest example of this tactic, one that trades long-term credibility for short-term political gain.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE, both with deep experience in regional security, are unlikely to be swayed. They understand that Somalia’s security challenges are not the result of external subversion, but rather the consequence of decades of poor leadership, failed military strategies, and a lack of cohesive national governance. Framing the Houthis as central to Somalia’s security woes is a deflection—not a diagnosis.

Such baseless narratives carry real costs. They distract from genuine counterterrorism efforts, further erode trust among Somalia’s international partners, and risk turning the Somali state into a source of fabricated intelligence, rather than a credible voice in regional affairs. Worst of all, they demean the resilience of the Somali people, who deserve leaders focused on governance, not geopolitical theatre.                

The True Drivers of Extremism

The continued presence and evolution of Al-Shabaab is not due to Houthi or foreign interference. It is the direct result of Somalia’s inability to govern effectively. Large swaths of territory remain outside government control. Basic services are absent. Liberated regions lack sustainable oversight. In this vacuum, Al-Shabaab is not only    surviving—it is thriving.

President Mohamud’s administration has yet to present a credible national strategy for counterterrorism. Instead, it seeks external scapegoats to explain internal failures. However, serious security reform requires more than rhetoric. It demands a genuine commitment to rebuilding local governance, empowering regional administrations, and disrupting the economic lifelines that sustain insurgents. These solutions are not easy—but they are real. And they stand in stark contrast to the current approach, which substitutes conspiracies for competence and posturing for planning.

While President Mohamud claims, “On the field, we are engaged in fierce battles on two main fronts. The first in the CalMiskaad Mountains and the Golis range, where our forces have won one victory after another. However, we need the support of  regional partners to prevent the Gulf of Aden from becoming a hub for terrorist groups,” He wrote, such declarations fail to align with the realities on the ground. In truth, these claims obscure a troubling disconnect between rhetoric and action.

The president has not provided meaningful assistance to the frontline fighters, like Puntland security force, nor has he ensured medical support or evacuation for the wounded. Shockingly, even requests for travel mechanisms to injured fighters have been Declined. Rather than confronting these internal shortcomings, the administration continues to shift blame outward—an evasion that undermines both national morale and strategic clarity. Ultimately, real counterterrorism demands more than public statements. It requires tangible support, coordinated efforts, and above all, respect for those making daily sacrifices on the front lines. Without this, no amount of political messaging can substitute for the serious reforms Somalia urgently needs.

A Call for Real Leadership

The international community, particularly key partners in the Gulf, should recognize these fear-driven tactics for what they are, an attempt to secure resources without accountability. If external support is to continue, it must be conditioned on measurable reforms in transparency, governance, and security performance. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud still has an opportunity to lead differently. He can choose to move away from sensationalist claims and instead focus on nation-building, anti-corruption efforts, and the hard but necessary work of reconciliation.

A vital step forward would be for the president to convene an inclusive reconciliation conference—bringing together all political stakeholders and Somali intellectuals, beginning with his call for such a gathering during the recent Eid celebrations, under the banner of an inclusive National Consultative Council (NCC). That is the only way to forge a path toward lasting stability, credible governance, and international respect. But if he continues down this path—trading in half-truths and regional alarmism—it will only confirm what many already suspect: that his administration prioritizes foreign perception over domestic progress. The Somali people, after more than three decades of hardship, deserve far better.

Dayib Sh. Ahmed
Email: Dayib0658@gmail.com
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Dayib is a writer, political analyst and WardheerNews contributor.