By Amogelang Mbatha

Somalia’s government expects to liberate areas still controlled by al-Qaeda-linked militants within the next six months after capturing the insurgents’ coastal stronghold last week, a Defence Ministry official said.

The Somalia National Army, backed by African Union forces, seized the port town of Barawe, 220 kilometers (137 miles) south of the capital, Mogadishu, on Oct. 5 after meeting little resistance from the al-Shabaab insurgent group. The town had been used by fighters as a supply route and to generate income from illegal charcoal exports, according to the African Union Mission in Somalia, or Amisom.

“If they were still strong they would have been able to defend their headquarters in Barawe, so with each day al-Shabaab is getting weaker,” State Minister of Defense Mohamed Ali Haga said in an interview today in Johannesburg. “We believe it will take the remaining months of this year and the first few months of next, maybe the first three to four months of next year, to liberate the rest of the areas.”

Al-Shabaab has been in retreat in Somalia since its fighters were forced to withdraw from the capital, Mogadishu, in August 2011 after a series of military defeats. Amisom and the Somali national army have forced the insurgents to relinquish control of about 70 percent of southern and central Somalia, according to the presidency. On Sept. 1, a U.S. missile strike killed the militant group’s leader, Ahmed Abdi Godane. The militia said Ahmed Omar, who is also known as Abu-Ubeydah, has been chosen as his replacement.

Amnesty Accepted

Al-Shabaab is in a weakened state after the killing of its leader and about 300 fighters have accepted a government offer of amnesty in return for laying down their weapons, Haga said.

“The strength is getting weaker and weaker by the day militarily,” he said.

Somalia’s government plans to lobby the United Nations to lift its arms embargo against the Horn of Africa nation. The state is preparing for elections in 2016 and needs to train its army to help provide security.

“The time for review is around the corner,” Haga said. “The implications are that if it is not lifted, the re-building of the national army will be compromised and the fight against al-Shabaab wont be as effective.”

The UN Security Council in March agreed to extend its partial weapons ban on Somalia for eight months, citing the diversion by al-Shabaab and other armed groups of arms and ammunition intended for government forces.

Oil Dividend

Somalia has been mired in civil war since 1991, when the dictator Mohamed Said Barre was removed from power. The government is using its recent military advances to try to attract investors to help rebuild its economy.

Companies including Royal Dutch Shell Plc (RDSA), Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM)and BP Plc (BP/) are in talks with the government about returning to the country for the first time since war erupted two decades ago, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud said in an interview in August.

While Somalia has no proven oil reserves, drillers are betting the country has a geology similar to that of Yemen, which lies across the Gulf of Aden and has 2.7 billion barrels of proven reserves.

Source: Bloomberg