Mogadishu (WDN) – A prominent U.S. foreign policy think tank has cautioned Washington against extending formal recognition to Somaliland, warning that such a move could have far-reaching security and political consequences for Somalia and the wider Horn of Africa.

In a newly published assessment, the Defense Priorities Institute argued that U.S. recognition of Somaliland could inadvertently bolster Al-Shabaab by fueling nationalist sentiment across Somalia and providing the militant group with a powerful new propaganda narrative.

According to the report, Al-Shabaab has long sought to portray itself as the defender of Somalia’s unity, sovereignty, and territorial integrity. The institute warned that any international recognition of Somaliland could reinforce that message, allowing the group to intensify recruitment efforts and broaden its appeal among Somalis opposed to the country’s fragmentation.

The report cites the 2024 memorandum of understanding between Ethiopia and Somaliland as an example. Under the agreement, Ethiopia was expected to gain access to the sea, while Somaliland anticipated progress toward international recognition.

Defense Priorities said the agreement triggered widespread public anger inside Somalia and gave Al-Shabaab an opportunity to cast itself as the guardian of Somali sovereignty. According to the think tank, the militant group capitalized on the controversy through propaganda that resonated with sections of the population concerned about the country’s territorial integrity.

The institute argues that formal U.S. recognition of Somaliland could produce a similar effect, offering Al-Shabaab another opportunity to strengthen its messaging and attract new recruits at a time when international partners remain focused on weakening the insurgency.

Beyond the security implications, the report warns that recognition could further complicate efforts to resolve the long-running political dispute between Somalia’s Federal Government and Somaliland. It also cautions that such a step could heighten regional tensions in an already fragile Horn of Africa, where geopolitical competition and security challenges continue to overlap.

Instead, Defense Priorities recommends that the United States prioritize regional stability and maintain its support for counterterrorism efforts against Al-Shabaab rather than pursue a policy that, in its assessment, could create new political and security risks.

The report specifically warns that recognizing Somaliland at this stage could:

• Provide Al-Shabaab with a powerful new propaganda opportunity.
• Intensify nationalist sentiment that the group could exploit for recruitment.
• Further complicate political dialogue between Somalia’s Federal Government and Somaliland.
• Increase political and security tensions across the Horn of Africa.

The assessment reflects the institute’s security-focused analysis of how diplomatic decisions can influence extremist narratives and insurgent recruitment. It is based on the view that issues surrounding Somalia’s territorial unity remain deeply sensitive and can be exploited by armed groups for strategic advantage.

However, the report represents the analysis of Defense Priorities and does not constitute official U.S. government policy. Any decision regarding the recognition of Somaliland would ultimately depend on the official foreign policy of the United States and broader diplomatic, legal, and national security considerations.

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