By Khalid Hassan Yusuf
Ethiopia recently entered into a joint defense agreement with Morocco, although there were no previous relations of influence between Ethiopia and Morocco, but the political challenges facing each of them resulted in them heading towards converging in that direction politically, and this measure was not preceded by anything justified. As much as it was spur of the moment and pragmatic political, and that the Ethiopian party was the one who took the initiative towards the alliance’s destination. Although the military and political rapprochement between them has been present in recent years, the visit of Moroccan King Mohamed VI to Ethiopia in 2016 came in the context of that trend.
With the deterioration of relations between Somalia and Ethiopia, Addis Ababa and Rabat moved towards exploiting the political situation to achieve their gains at the expense of Somalia, Egypt, Algeria and the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic. Note that Ethiopian and Moroccan relations in the past were non-existent, and the ideological line between the two countries was different during the Cold War, but their connection became great with the United States during the second millennium.
Ethiopia is seeking political and military support in light of its efforts to attack Somali unity and sovereignty, and in the context of the attack on Egypt’s right to obtain the Nile waters, and its use of the Renaissance Dam as a weapon of political pressure against Cairo and in order to achieve political gains. There is no doubt that this is harmful to Egypt within the framework of solidarity Common Arab.
Previously, Ethiopia represented one of the African countries supporting the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic, and the presence of the African Union headquarters in Addis Ababa contributed to attracting many countries that established relations with the Polisario government.
During the Cold War phase, Somalia’s relations with Morocco were good in principle, although they did not take the path of political development, and they came against the backdrop of poor relations between Mogadishu and Algeria due to the latter’s support for Ethiopia. This position was demonstrated by Algeria’s support for Addis Ababa in its war with Somalia in 1977, and Somalia in turn. In 1982, supported Morocco Politically in light of the position to annex the Arabian Desert.
The irony is that when Somalia supported the Moroccan position, it was in turn supporting a Somali national liberation movement struggling against Ethiopia. These political events were behind the deterioration and then cooling of Somali-Algerian relations.
Naturally, Ethiopia took advantage of that trend well, and one of the indications of that is the Algerian mediation between Ethiopia and Eritrea, as a result of which the two countries signed on June 18, 2000, an agreement to stop the war between them, but it did not prevent the deterioration of relations between them and its impact from time to time, not to mention the completion of the terms of the agreement. .
The Egyptian regime had concluded the Camp David Accords with Israel, and for its part, Algeria was a member of what was known as the Arab Resilience and Response Front that opposed that agreement, while that position did not affect the relations of Somalia, the Sultanate of Oman, and Sudan with Egypt, while the majority of Arab countries severed their relations. With Cairo, this context also comes into play His role in the cooling of relations between Mogadishu and Algeria, even though there are still political relations between the two countries and the presence of continuous diplomatic representation between them.
Despite this Arab boycott of Egypt, Egyptian-Moroccan relations did not actually recover, and relations between them remained strong, especially since Morocco has relations with Israel similar to Egypt. After the Cold War, Ethiopia moved to consolidate its relations with Tel Aviv politically and militarily, mainly in Addis Ababa continued to search for political and military support to confront Egypt and seize the regional role in Africa, and the desire of the various Israeli governments to penetrate the continent.
Currently, Ethiopia is seeking to obtain Morocco’s support at various levels and to benefit from its good Arab relations, especially with the Arab Gulf states and North Africa after excluding Algeria, and after stepping down the Libyan role at the level of the North Africa countries due to the reality of the political and security turmoil in Libya, not to mention the desire to set aside the Moroccan position. Supporter Historically for Egypt.
While Morocco, in turn, is moving to influence the Ethiopian and African position in general towards the issue of the Western Sahara in light of the conflict between the Moroccan government and the Polisario, and in order to take advantage of the fact that Ethiopia represents the headquarters of the African Union, many of whose countries sided with the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic and adopted the Polisario Liberation Front as a representative. It is legitimate for the people of the Western Sahara, while Rabat considers it part of Moroccan territory.
In conclusion, Ethiopia and Morocco are in the process of a political bargain, meaning the exchange of political support through Addis Ababa opening the doors of the African regional headquarters in front of Rabat, against the backdrop of the siege of the Polisario Front and Algeria together, and supporting Morocco in the African circles with which Ethiopia is linked in Africa, especially in the Horn region. African For example, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda, Kenya and Djibouti.
In return, Rabat must work to support Addis Ababa from within the Arab League, and seek political and military support in the context of its battles with the countries of the region, including Somalia, Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt, and in light of the existence of good relations between Morocco and those countries, with the exception of Eritrea.
Thus, working to divide the unity of the Arab and African ranks regarding their foreign political positions, and it seems that this political deal is effective in the interests of both parties, and the two parties also desire a state of economic cooperation given that both parties are searching for African markets, and the possibility of Morocco investing in agricultural lands in Ethiopia and obtaining a new market for some Moroccan products.
Based on the aforementioned, the position on Somalia and Algeria together requires a re-reading of their political relations historically, and in the direction of preserving their interests from the state of targeting represented by the joint defense agreement between Ethiopia and Morocco, despite the justifications of both Rabat and Addis Ababa, which believe that the military agreement between them does not harm Egypt. Specifically, in the end, if a military conflict breaks out between Egypt and Ethiopia, Morocco will remain neutral, and in the end, such a position does not serve the former, which is locked in an existential conflict with Ethiopia.
The rapprochement between Rabat and Addis Ababa comes after the absence of unprecedented relations between them and its goal The main thing is to undermine the interests of Somalia, Algeria, Egypt and the Western Sahara.
Especially since Morocco is doing this after the previous military maneuvers of Egypt, Algeria, and Polisario, and it represents a political message from Rabat to Cairo stating, in turn, we will ally with your opponents in Ethiopia.
It is worth noting that the reports between Somalia and Algeria represent a necessity to correct the course of their previous cooling of relations towards new horizons required by the common interests between the two countries, politically through mutual diplomatic support for common issues, military cooperation, cultural exchange, and Algeria’s economic investment (agricultural projects) in Somalia, All these paths can be devoted in the foreseeable future between the two countries.
The message sent by this military agreement is that Morocco is returning to the African Union, after its withdrawal from the Organization of African Unity in 1984, through the Ethiopian entrance, which represents the African sponsor of the African Regional Organization, and to confirm that the priority of Addis Ababa and Rabat is their strategic interests.
The result is that this trend is what will move the dimensions of Moroccan foreign policies in the future, and therefore it will have an impact on Somalia in light of the Ethiopian targeting of this country. Therefore, Rabat will be more concerned with its interests with Ethiopia than its support for Somalia’s sovereignty and its concern for the unity of its territory, which is a different context than The supportive Somali position Morocco and its non-recognition of the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic.
Khalid Hassan Yusuf
Email: [email protected]
Minneapolis, MN
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