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Puntland State is losing its political influence

By Nasrudin Mohamed Ahmed

Ever since its establishment in 1998, Puntland pursued the greater Somalia, and supported the federal system in Somalia spending a great deal of time and effort to help along the transitional federal government stand on its feet in Mogadishu back in 2004. Since then, the subsequent federal governments were all counting on the support of Puntland and its views were respected in the politics of Somalia being the elder state. Garowe, the capital of Puntland hosted several nationwide consultative meetings in the past 8 years in which the fate of Somalia was drawn, consultations that, in the end, paved the way to the smooth end of the transitional period in August 2012 when President Hassan Sheikh was elected to lead the Federal Government of Somalia from then on for four years.

President Farmaajo with President Deni,
Jan, 2019, Garowe, Puntland

At the time, such consultative conferences used to be held in a foreign country, but Puntland proved to have the capacity and the security necessary to hold such meetings and therefore gained the reputation of being the sponsor of peace accords in Somalia. On the other hand, the port of Bossaso in Puntland, in addition to being the main source of income for Puntland, has been supplying the central regions of Somalia all the way to Baladweyn by then, owing to the persistent insecurity in the South that could not permit the use of the roads connecting the port of Mogadishu to the South and Central regions of Somalia. Puntland Sate is also known for its quick response in coordinating the provision of aid for the natural disaster hit victims across Somalia, the latest being the floods that affected Baladweyn of Hiran Region.

Meantime, other states have been formed besides Puntland, the latest being Hirshabelle making the total of 5 federal member states; namley Puntland, Jubaland, Galmudug, South West and Hirshabelle. Thanks to the administration of Hassan Sheikh that was committed to complete the federal member states before he stands as a candidate for a second term. However, the formation of some regional states was unconstitutional and backed by neighboring countries and Jubaland was an example as Kenya planned to use it as buffer state. The positive side of forming the maximum federal member states possible was overshadowed by its weaknesses in its new leaderships causing problems and unrests for Mr. Hassan Sheikh, a trouble that was eventually inherited by the current federal government of Somalia. Puntland once again, emerged to be the spiritual advisor for these newly formed states providing guidance when needed and a council of interstate cooperation was founded in Kismayo, Jubbalanad but maintained unhealthy relationship with the federal government of Somalia.

Puntland state seems to be losing these privileges nowadays for two reasons. 1) The fact that the current federal government of Somalia is emerging powerful under the administration of President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo, and 2) the bottom of Puntland is falling out and requires urgent rejuvenation and repairing. The current administration of the federal government worked on the elimination of the challenges that were inevitable within the federal member states, by sensibly enlightening respective regional populations to replace the presidents of the federal member states during the elections, with candidates that can contribute to the overall achievement of nationwide goals. It has also introduced vigorous financial management system that holds the federal member states accountable for the funds they receive from the federal government of Somalia with the intention to fight the corruption inherited from the previous governments. The federal government also took over the foreign affairs, and blocked the world to directly deal with the federal member states.

Puntland state is itself failing as the clan repression is outweighing the governance, and development projects are being degraded. The security in the regions of Mudug, Bari, Sool, and Sanag regions are not entirely controlled by Puntland government, therefore making it difficult for the humanitarian agencies to carry out needs assessment missions. The assassination of the elite is still being carried out in Bossaso and Galkayo cities as yet leaving little to be offered by Puntland authorities. Visiting Puntland April 2019, you can see the level of destruction the region has succumbed to. The condition of Bossaso port is deteriorating as sand is filling up the shoreline, allowing not more than one vessel to safely dock at the lanes of the port. Regions like Guardafui and some parts of Bari region are still remote, after 21 years of Puntland’s establishment as there are genuine humanitarian crisis in every aspect of life. Perhaps the most dangerous trouble within Puntland is the loss of harmony among the population and the distrust towards the successive administrations.    

Deni with Puntland delegation arriving in Kismayo for the inauguration of President Ahmed Madobe, October, 2019

Whilst Puntland is failing, other federal member states, with the exception of Jubbaland, are recovering from the ruins and have taken steps towards to the development of their respective administrative regions. Galmudug has taken the right path as the opposing sides have thrown all internal disagreements into the background for the sake of settled and stable Galmudug. Probably, the first development project that will be given priority will be the construction of Hobyo port vowed by Qatar government. Federal member states appreciated the maintenance of healthy relationship with the federal government is the key to prosperity and unity. Similar to Puntland state, Jubbaland state is suffering under the leadership of Ahmed Madobe, who insists to be in power despite the recommendations of the federal government as well as the international community to step down or hold fair elections in Jubbaland. No major development projects were carried out for the last 8 years he has been ruling and the dictatorship effect is taking its toll on the land and the population of Jubbaland. Amazingly, Jubbaland enjoys the support of Puntland for a reason beyond our imagination.

Puntland’s disagreement with the federal government has intensified hence the consultative meeting within Puntland stakeholders that was called by president Said Deni on 15 March 2020 to discuss the fading relationship with the federal government, at the time when the country is preparing for the one person one vote elections in 2021. Puntland state clearly opposed the new decree of elections among other laws passed by the parliament.

Puntland Consultative Meeting, March 2020,
Garowe, Puntland

During the consultative meeting, it was clear that the representatives of the Forum for the National Parties, a group of more than six opposition parties, had their influences on the outcome of the meeting and planned to use Puntland as an opposition party to defeat the current federal administration in the coming elections. This has prompted the elders of Puntland, who, as usual, step in when the matter reaches a deadlock, to advise president Deni to visit Mogadishu for the first time, after one year and three months of his election, and discuss the differences with the leaders of the federal government, advice that was somewhat taken by Deni.  

Soon, Deni’s close allies also advised him to take opportunity and call for a consultative meeting countrywide between all stakeholders, a proposal that the federal government and the other federal member states are believed to be skeptical. Surely, Puntland is not as influential as it used to be, and its continuous support for Jubbaland’s Madobe is seen by the other federal member states to be dividing Somalia rather than uniting. In the past, Puntland used to bargain for its own interests, but now seems to be used as a tool by the opposition.

The UN and the other international community including the donors should not see Puntland as the most important stakeholder as in the previous times, but rather should regard it as a regional state that ought to follow the majority federal member states. Even if the other federal member states accept to participate the consultative meeting in Garowe, the outcome will not please Puntland and its allies as all the other federal member states would have different opinion. There is also a doubt the federal government would sit with the Madobe, who, in their eyes, serves a foreign country with which Somalia is having a maritime dispute.   

In conclusion, I would urge Puntland state to focus on the internal differences and the growing dissatisfaction of the population rather than being used as an opposition party for the coming elections in 2021. Before falling apart, the chances of restoring the image of Puntland is still within reach and this can happen if a second consultative meeting within Puntland stakeholders is called upon to discuss the internal matters of Puntland to cope with the geopolitical changes in Somalia as well as in the Horn of Africa. Somalia is recovering from years of political and social havoc.

Nasrudin Mohamed Ahmed
Email: [email protected]


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