The New Puntland Leaders and the Khatumo Question

By Ali Abdulle

The elections in Puntland left many observers inside and outside the country shocked and mesmerised for it was long accepted as foregone conclusion that warrior Farole would never relinquish power without making one last stand. He fought so hard in his long election campaign to remain in office using a plethora of tricks some with ethically dubious connotations.  What only few pundits knew if any, was that forever the strategist he was also planning how to handle the consequences of defeat if it came to that. Having lost by the narrowest of margins he surprised everyone with a well prepared speech conceding defeat and congratulating his opponent magnanimously leaving him stunned, inarticulate and even incoherent. From then onwards it was a rollercoaster of emotions. The handover ceremony, the signing of documents, introducing staff to their new master and even the bedroom keys exchange by the wives were all planned beforehand by the old fox with clockwork precision.

Puntland_pres_candidatesThe whole thing was surreal. Even the winners are still dazed unsure whether the whole thing is strange dream and worried they will wake up to find the old warhorse in his usual place, still in charge.  Indeed they are still in campaign mode making policies on the hoof and promising the earth in election style speeches, organising endless gatherings and photo opportunities. A constant pledge you keep hearing from the new leaders is that as a matter of urgent priority they will reunite the territory and bring back the Sool and Buhotle community referred to as SSC into the fold. That is a good policy pronouncement whilst out on the Hustings but difficult even dangerous to put into practice. Taking a simplistic view about the scale and nature of this challenge, leading to hasty decisions would be recklessness with the potential of plunging the whole region into a serious crisis.

There are fundamental issues at stake that need to be taken into consideration before any strategy is formulated concerning this intractable question. In addition to having strong kinship based affinity with the rest of Puntland communities, SSC regions shared a colonial history with Somaliland with inescapable political and social consequences. Furthermore as the prospect of secession recedes the significance of the tribal links between these communities and Puntland state will come under constant scrutiny and its relevance increasingly called into question.

somalilandThe first test on the administration’s attitude will be their reading of the current state of Las Anod, the capital of Sool region. There will be those beating the drums of war urging the government to prepare for military campaign aimed at liberating the city from outside occupation. The new Puntland leaders must reject this analysis and instead see the crux of the dilemma as internal squabbles between SSC clans. It may be difficult to admit or uncomfortable to acknowledge that there are important groups seeing their interests best served by close political links with the Somaliland although not necessarily sharing their separatist tendencies. While it cannot be ignored, that constituency does not amount to a critical mass of opinion, enough to tip the balance in favour of separation or lend credence to Somaliland’s claim over these regions. There is contradiction at the heart of Somaliland’s position, vehemently rejecting union against their will with the rest of the country whilst at the time denying the same privilege to others.

And then there is the Diaspora sponsored Khatumo initiative originally intended as a bargaining chip vis-a-vis the federal state. After two years in existence this enterprise is today in a sorry state with its masterminds slumbering in Mogadishu and other capitals, leaving smarmy “presidents” fighting each other like ferrets in a sack. But writing off Khatumo as a spent force is to completely misunderstand its significance. Not having established any form of administrative structure or service delivery it has nevertheless compensated what it lacked in substance in awakening a sense of pride and self awareness amongst its supporters at the grassroots level. Khatumo has thus been elevated to the status of a romantic ideal, a defining principle cherished by a community irrespective of its potential as a political force. In essence khatumo has risen above the limits of possibilities and assumed a reality of its own.

There are those within SSC political elites militating for strengthened relationship with Puntland but these voices are the weakest and least self confident compared to khatumo followers or even Somaliland supporters. Taking a cue from this particular cohort to draw a blueprint for recovering the “missing” regions is neither credible nor effective.

The former regime’s failed electioneering ploy of standing in the way of khatumo conference in Taleex leading to loss of innocent lives must serve as a warning reminder of all the things that can easily go wrong when caution is sacrificed for short term political calculations in a complex and volatile political environment.
This is not the occasion for small time thinking or engaging in intellectual gymnastics reaffirming old attitudes of zero sum game or brinkmanship. It is time to go back to basics and revisit the founding values agreed by all regions of Puntland state at the time of its inception: the two pillars of confronting the breaking up of the union on the one hand and avoiding a rule by over centralised state based in ethnically sanitised city doubling as a national capital on the other.

After all the famous battle cry “no secession, no centralisation” is what warmed the heart of the international community to the region and what its essential role in Somalia as a whole is based upon. Incidentally this is a non controversial position shared by both Puntland and khatumo. But for cooperation on these basic beliefs to take place the two sides must start talking without preconditions beginning with small confidence building measures, gradually developing into meaningful discussions over a period of time. As a gesture of goodwill the new Puntland leaders can drop strong hints that they are relaxed about future Khatumo conferences and have no qualms about delegates moving freely to and from conference venues using the state’s entry ports.

The new team at the helm won power on the back of strong manifesto commitments promising, among other things, to rebuild a crumbling infrastructure, bring about concrete economic development and prevent terrorist spectaculars by a dangerous enemy that is becoming increasingly resourceful and difficult to dislodge. The international community in particular will be looking for progress on the stalled democratisation process and elections taking place in exchange for significant economic support It is delivering on those pledges that the new leaders will be judged upon and not on jingoistic misadventures or the pursuit of short term political popularity.

Ali Abdulle
Email: barqadle@hotmail.co.uk

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