Wednesday, April 21, 2021
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Manifesto II: Somali Political Quagmire

    
To: All Somali Political Organizations    
To: UN SRSG Office
    To: Security Council Member States 
   To: EU Envoy to Somalia
   To: AU, IGAD Secretariat, Arab League, and IOC
   To: International Crisis Group Brussels, Belgium
  

Ref.: Manifesto-II_0005/2020

Excellencies;
We Manifesto-II, an independent forum composed of Somali intellectuals, political leaders, professionals, civil society and other members of the mainstream Somalis are gravely concerned the current state of affairs of the country. Manifesto II main purpose is to promote peace and dialogue and put forward a durable solution for the state and institutions building process.

Somalia finds itself once again at a cross road due to the ever-recurring political disagreements over electoral processes.

It is obvious that election impasse sabotages the hard earned gains of the last 10 years against Al-Shabab (an Al-Qaeda affiliate) and the East African wing of ISIS.  It also undermines the political, security, humanitarian and reconciliation process and the institution building in order Somalia can once again stand on its own feet.

The Mogadishu attacks of 19 – 20 February 2021 against peaceful demonstrators shows the mindset and the intentions of the current incumbent in Villa Somalia.

The mandate of Somalia’s president formally ended on 7 Feb. 2021, the mandate of federal parliament also expired on 26 December 2020. For all intents and purposes, Somalia lacks legitimate, effective, national government. Ex-president Mr. Farmajo argues that his tenure ends when a new president is elected which is disingenuous and unconstitutional.

We Manifesto-II understand that, Farmajo is not willing to hold elections but instead to consolidate his power beyond his tenure and to create intentionally political chaos, irresolvable tensions and misunderstandings.

Recommendations:

  1. We call on the International Community (IC) to refrain and stop referring to the current Somalia’s predicament simply as an “electoral impasse” and should recognize it for the grave constitutional and political crisis and consequences leading to civil unrest. It is not only elections that are at stake, but also the entire trajectory of Somalia’s state building process.
  • We call for all stakeholders and International community to take an active role and draw a roadmap out of the stalemate and not to give terrorists and spoilers a room to manoeuvre and exercise their evil acts. We urge all parties to avoid any further actions which can escalate the tension and lead into nowhere.
  • The IC must and should take into consideration that Ex-president and his associates systematically and deliberately derailed every election agreement and peace initiative that came into picture, and do not expect to reach a bona fide common agreements as long as Mr. Farmajo is in Villa Somalia.
  • We call upon the international community to speak with one voice to end this quagmire once for all and create a road map for federal elections with international observers. However Ex-President Farmajo will perpetrate everything in his disposal to rig the elections to come out as a winner.
  • IC should invite moderate Somali intellectuals and politicians, who are not in support of neither side of the parties as mediators.
  • The former president and his surrogates, despite the lofty rhetoric none of the promises are kept and none are likely to be ever delivered if no outside pressure is applied. 
  • It is also imperative, that the Security Council members (US & UK) to take a decisive role of leadership to end the current political deadlock once for all. They should be very cautious that there is a fine line between acting and on the other side the current Villa Somalia occupant using the Somali public perception against the friends of Somalia, which could orchestrate a widespread civil unrest and further mortar attacks at Halane compound and the airport.
  • Villa Somalia’s disastrous domestic policies will lead into senseless and protracted inter-clan rivalries and to avoid this, IC should identify those hampering the election process as spoilers and sanction them.

Excellencies, in conclusion we the Manifesto-II avails itself of this opportunity to renew to the international community the assurances of its highest consideration.

Contact: [email protected]

Twitter: @gurey59


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