By Dr. Abdirahman Awale Hassan
Since the collapse of the central government in Somalia, Jubaland (Lower and Middle Juba and Gedo) has been the epicenter of conflicts, disagreements, political turmoil and the presence of the Islamist extremist group, Al Shabab. The persistent instability in Jubaland can be attributed to a combination of factors, including its vast natural resources and strategic geographical location, which make it a coveted territory for various actors. Jubaland’s natural resources, particularly fertile agricultural land and access to key waterways, have made it an attractive region for both local and external stakeholders. This has fueled competition among clans, political factions, and even neighboring countries seeking influence over the region.
Although tribal conflicts caused by competition for space and natural resources have existed since Somalia’s pre-war era, physical clan-based violence and wars have been halted for the last thirteen years. However, the political wars and disagreements existed, had various dimensions, and were overwhelming. The mismanagement of the previous federal governments and Jubaland administration, along with the ill-intended interests of the international community in general and the frontline countries in particular, have fueled these disagreements.
This article does not discuss the political events and incidents of the past years, nor does it justify or analyze the root causes and outcomes of the conflicts. Instead, it focuses on the contemporary Jubaland state government and the diversity of political views held by the political stakeholders. People in Jubaland are pleading for the constitution to be implemented and for elections to be held in a free and fair manner. On the other hand, the serving president is adamantly opposed to the constitution’s execution, with or without valid justification, citing persistent threats from Al-Shabab, clan-based conflicts, and disagreements that hinder the progression and implementation of Jubaland’s constitution.
In this article, we discuss all the possible scenarios and narratives that the people of Jubaland might expect. Based on the historical background of current political figures, critical analysis, and case studies, we can conceptualize the fragility of the endpoint and draw conclusions on the most likely outcomes post-election in Jubaland.
Scenario A: The Serving President’s Consolidation of Power
Given the current trajectory and predictions, the serving president appears committed to not handing over power in the near future. He is likely to expedite the process of finalising the presidential election without waiting for the projected times for all member states in Somalia, in accordance with the Baidoa agreement, which gave the federal government the opportunity to manage and facilitate a fair and free election to be held in a democratic way.
In this scenario, the current president will negotiate with all stakeholders and potential political actors, organizing them into groups based on their categories, tribes, and titles. This will allow him to determine who is loyal and trustworthy and therefore can be rewarded with political positions in the forthcoming government, and who is not predisposed to support him. All influential individuals and clan leaders will receive promises and advance payments as inducements. Ambitious and committed individuals who resist these promises may face extrajudicial execution, being labeled as threats to the country’s stability and accused of inciting violence.
These precursor activities will facilitate the serving president’s interests, allowing him to pursue leading Jubaland. After removing all potential obstacles, he will announce that Jubaland is well-prepared and ready to start the election campaign, confident that no one else will have the courage to stand against him except those designated to mimic real candidates (known as Minxiis) in exchange for political positions and financial advantages.
The success of Scenario A will depend on the behavior and dealings of external actors, such as the federal government of Somalia, neighboring countries, and international communities. Particularly, Kenya’s role is crucial due to the long border it shares with Somalia through Jubaland. North Eastern Kenya is inhabited by Somalis, and thus Kenya and Somalia must maintain strong relations to protect mutual interests and prevent terrorist infiltration. Therefore, any political friction between the two countries will create an opportunity for terrorist groups to attack Kenya, compelling Kenya to strengthen its relationship with Jubaland.
Scenario B: The Opposition’s Strategic Maneuvering
Somalia’s politics is unpredictable and can change dramatically in no time. All current opposition groups are enthusiastically hoping to replace the serving president at any cost. However, this will depend entirely on how well they craft and formulate a strategic plan to dismiss Ahmed and his government.
In this approach, opposition groups need to build strong connections with the Somali government and convince neighboring countries of the importance of introducing a new system and replacing the current president. To do so, Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre and President Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud must build a strong relationship with Kenyan authorities through Somali Kenyan leadership. This scenario is not easy, and everything will depend on how both the president and the prime minister handle the situation and it requires strong-minded individuals who are committed to bringing change and have full support from the federal government. If they can successfully navigate these complex dynamics, they may be able to rally sufficient internal and external support to initiate a peaceful transition of power.
Scenario C: Armed Insurgency
This scenario involves creating an armed insurgency with the sole purpose of toppling President Ahmed Islam. Many people believe that since Jubaland’s president came to power through armed conflict, there is no alternative to bringing democracy to Jubaland other than through gunfire, as he does not believe in transferring power peacefully.
However, this option is complicated due to Jubaland’s diverse population, which exacerbates the already fragile situation. Even those from the same clan as President Ahmed are eager for change and willing to see a new Jubaland without Ahmed’s administration, but not at the expense of the citizens or the destruction of what is already in hand. Given multiple considerations, predictions, and analysis based on the current situation in Somalia, this scenario is not realistically viable in the present time. The majority of people strongly believe that any changes should come through peaceful discussions and negotiations.
Although this scenario is unlikely, it cannot be entirely ruled out. Attempting to envision Jubaland’s political destiny suggests potentially adverse outcomes, where the best-case scenario is still fraught with difficulties. Forecasting and predicting possible scenarios in Jubaland’s future does not correspond to actual and imminent events; this projection is based solely on personal opinions and interpretations of the current political climate in the region. Each scenario’s factors need to be evaluated in relation to the different types of political, social, and economic impacts they may have on Jubaland and the broader region.
Conclusion and recommendations
Jubaland’s political landscape remains fragile and complex, with any scenario presenting significant challenges. The interplay of tribal affiliations, political ambitions, and external influences creates a volatile environment. The resolution of Jubaland’s political turmoil requires strong, visionary leadership committed to democratic principles and the well-being of all citizens. Leaders must prioritize dialogue, inclusivity, and transparent governance.
The role of neighboring countries and the international community is critical. Their support or interference can significantly impact the direction of Jubaland’s political future, and therefore a peaceful transition of power through strategic maneuvering and broad-based support remains the most viable path to stability and democratic governance.
Nonetheless, without careful management of the situation, there will be an eminent risk of entrenching authoritarianism or descending into conflict, both of which would be detrimental to the region’s stability and development. In conclusion, Jubaland stands at a crossroad where the actions of key political players and the responses of external actors will determine its path forward. While the situation is fraught with challenges, there remains hope for a peaceful and democratic resolution if leaders and stakeholders commit to constructive engagement and uphold the principles of good governance in Jubland.
Dr. Abdirahman Awale Hassan
Email: [email protected]
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