By Hamse Warfa
With President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s announcement a few days ago, it is official that Somalia now has a new Prime Minister, Abdiweli Sheikh Ahmed. This came after Somali’s parliament voted to oust Prime Minister Abdi Farah Shirdon and his cabinet early December. I therefore take this opportunity to congratulate the new Prime Minister, and to wish him all the best in his endeavors to rebuild the country’s institutions.
Notably, Somali’s efforts at building a stable government have time and time again been dogged by infightings and clan-based power struggles that have only achieved failure. To illustrate this, consider that Mr. Ahmed will be the sixth Somali’s premier within a span of six years. This is disproportionately a high rate of turnover for a government that is seeking to find its feet after decades of civil strife. The fact that such changeovers affect implementation of key reforms and national development is beyond doubt.
The Big Question
However, a difficult question that many have struggled with over these past several years is what really causes such a high rate of failure of government in Somalia. Is it that all the people appointed to Somali’s premiership are out rightly incompetent and hence their inability to deliver?
Were this true, it would point to more serious implications, to the effect that Somalia’s current and past presidencies and the parliament have themselves been incompetent and could thus not properly vet an incoming premiere. It would also imply that the two institutions (presidency and parliament) have been acting as saboteurs holding the country’s progress at ransom by knowingly appointing and sanctioning the appointment of national leaders for the sole purpose of bringing them down. But what would such moves achieve for the president, parliament and the people of Somalia? Of course nothing.
Alternatively, could there be serious structural weaknesses that lender whoever ascends to the prime minister’s office ineffective, his credentials and past track of success elsewhere notwithstanding?
My assumption is that there are systemic factors in place that only serve to undermine the premiership, the office holder’s persona and capabilities notwithstanding. This means that whoever comes to the office will operate within the same structures, whose predetermined outcome is failure. One of such weaknesses, in my opinion, happens to be the way such persons are appointed.
For the most part, being a presidential appointee means you owe your allegiance to the persona of the president and not necessarily the presidency (the office) or the constitution. This has been a bitter lesson that Abdi Farah Shirdon, the immediate former prime minister learnt the hard way. Having been in office for barely 14 months, things started getting tough for him for among other reasons giving the president too much leeway hence interference with government operations that were under his responsibilities. In the end he was accused of incompetence by the president, who engineered a change of guard.
Although the president alone cannot send the Prime Minister home (this has to be sanctioned by parliament), the fact that falling apart with the president can mean the ouster of the government as was the case with Shirdon points at serious weaknesses in structures of national leadership. The fact that the office of the Prime minister is accountable to parliament didn’t seem to help the situation either in a house that has been sympathetic to the president and with serious allegations of bribes to influence the decision to oust him.
I think it’s time we put a halt to this and other existing structural weaknesses that often lead to instability in Somalia’s government. A good way to end this would be by instituting measures that ensure that the presidency and premiership have distinct and separate roles, besides constitutional safeguards protecting them from each other. In addition, now is the time to prepare addressing these structural barriers with an eye towards the 2016 elections where we will hopefully have both the president and prime minister elected directly by the people as we have, say in Kenya, where the president and his deputy have the citizens’ direct mandate. This would also be a great way to build national cohesion, especially by encouraging Somalis from different regions of the country to form political coalitions and campaign together for national leadership.
Heart of the Matter
Having said that, I must confess my admiration for Abdiweli Sheikh Ahmed’s credentials and previous professional experiences which could come handy in his new role as Somalia’s next Prime Minister (if approved). Ahmed is an Economist with over twenty years’ experience in leadership in regional and international development organizations including Islamic Development Bank, World Bank, USAID, African Union/IBAR, COMESA and the European Union among others. The fact that he is a fresh blood in Somalia’s politics promise to bring the kind of freshness that the country’s leadership needs at a time like this, when national reconstruction and peace building should be more important than clan-based perspective of issues.
However, Ahmed still faces the same set of challenges that his predecessors have grappled with over the years, and the world will be waiting to see how he navigates the government through to development.
To start with, Ahmed is coming to head a government whose reputation has sunk deep owing to alleged high level corruption and misappropriation of foreign aid meant for national reconstruction and development. He will thus be expected to slay the dragon of corruption, whose viciousness and ability to hit back can’t be underestimated. Ahmed has the difficult task of restoring confidence among development partners that foreign aid will be spent for intended purposes. To achieve this, he must be seen to be winning the battle against corruption in Somalia.
The people of Somalia will be looking up to Ahmed to resuscitate the fledging war against al-Shabab and establish government’s authority across the country. Notably, the government’s resolve to push ahead with this campaign has been seriously hampered by infighting as well as the politics revolving around the recent formation of the Jubaland regional government.
Ahmed has the great task of rising beyond sectarian politics and inspiring the people of Somalia into coming together as one people to rebuild their country. To achieve this, he will have to inspire public confidence in the institutions of governance, and among the citizens themselves, whose opinion on important matters is often split along clan affiliations.
This notwithstanding, Ahmed comes in at an opportune time, and has a great chance to create a lasting legacy in Somali’s governance and politics. Consider that he joins government at a time when there’s need for genuine leadership in the implementation of the new constitution, more so with regard to federalism. As research and successful examples from previously conflicted nations have shown, federalism brings institutions of governance closer to the people. People’s opinions on matters thus become important drivers of policies and development agendas at local levels, as opposed to the old system where development was designed from the top and pushed down on the people. Federalism has also been proven to be a tool for peace building in many parts of the world.
Implementation of devolution will also ensure equitable distribution of national and regional resources, taming the sentiments of exclusion from the national good, which were important factors that led to the armed conflict that Somalia is now emerging from. Through proper implementation of federalism, Ahmed will have by extension played a great role in setting in motion a firm foundation for national reconstruction and peace building. In this regard, however, the Prime Minister cannot escape from the all-important duty of working with parliament in forming the necessary technical parliamentary committees to examine the many contentious issues affecting the implementation of the current constitution. He must also ensure and put an extra effort to make sure that leaders of the regional governments are fully engaged and are part of any decision-making regarding the constitution.
Finally, the new Prime Minister comes into leadership without any tainted political background. This means he is a very sellable candidate to spearhead dialogues aimed at national reconciliation and healing in the post-civil war Somalia. The people of Somalia are now tired of war and yearning for a forum through which they can express their aspirations and forge better relations with their neighbors. Ahmed will be the most suitable person in this government (if confirmed by parliament) to provide this platform. Will he seize the moment? I hope so!
Hamse Warfa
Email:hamsew@yahoo.com
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