By Yonis Ali
There is no disputing that Hassan Khaire is basking in the glory of his political life as a Prime Minister after a longstanding successful career progression in the aid industry, and a short stint in the extractive oil industry thereafter. His success is mainly attributable to his crafty political skills honed at the cut-throat humanitarian world fraught with cocky competitions, bloody betrayals, shifting allegiances, characterized by constant backstabbing and bootlicking.
Despite facing sabotage from elements within the executive that undermine his authority, Khaire succeeded to accommodate the demands of his President while navigating through the conflict-prone political arena. In doing so, he continued to balance interests and weathered many political storms. For that, it can be safely assumed that he will go down in Somalia’s political historiography as the longest-serving with an uninterrupted, complete monolithic term.
This history is, however, more praise to his boss and commander-in-chief than anything else. The longevity is borne out of the President acting presidential by letting his Prime Minister conduct executive tasks, all the while sitting back to enjoy the outcome. President Farmajo’s hands-off policy, amid criticism of dereliction of duty, went a long way to hold the house together one major storm after another.
But that’s not the only history the firebrand, an image-conscious executive would make when it comes to running his cabinet empire, or, as some would aptly characterize it, “classroom”. For these reasons, Khaire will be remembered as the Prime Minister with the highest number of support in parliament in terms of the sheer number of parliamentarians passionate about their support for him. Whereas he has been mild and malleable to his President, Khaire commands both fear and respect, in equal measure, from friends and foes alike. What sets him apart from most past leaders, though, is that Khaire has been more accommodating of and pandering to politicians outside of his 4.5 constituency. For instance, he has distanced himself from nepotism to the extent of presiding over his own sub-clans’ exclusion or marginalization from his administration. That doesn’t at all mean he has no skeletons in his closets— a story for another day.
Enough for a preamble. Hassan Khaire has not officially declared his 2021 candidacy for the top seat. The political landscape is awash with speculations that he is going to run for the 2021 Presidential election. Khaire and his associates’ actions and omissions over the past years of his Premiership have helped fuel such speculations. Well, it is argued that such projections of ambition have partly contributed to his longevity in office as its espoused hope in and fears of the man among political actors. Without such projection of ambition post his current station, proponents of survivalist view contend, Khaire could not have lasted in office as long.
The central question of whether or not Khaire stands any chance to win the 2021 contractual bid for the Villa can, first and former-most, be partially answered by Khaire himself— if and when he throws his bid (hat) in parliament (ring)—, and can best and conclusively answered by Parliamentarians. And by parliamentarians I mean, forget the sideshows, 2021 presidential elections will be staged on Somalia’s grand political market place— the vast tent at the airport hanger.
In his quest to remain and maintain himself in office as Prime Minister, some traits of Khaire came out to the fore; that Khaire is aggressive, combative, competitive, conniving and controlling. Combination of these mutually reinforcing traits is terrible news for politics of Somali Presidency and doesn’t auger well for its possessor.
The thinking is in the current controlled or indirect electoral process, a candidate, tests positive for “balls test” at his political peril. In this case, Khaire is an open book and the result of his “balls test” is out there reading “oversized!,” with the “balls detector” machine setting off the loudest buzz with Khaire, among all the other 2021 presidential candidates.
Beyond the “balls test” predicament, Khaire also faces other obstacles that might prove difficult to surmount. How can Khaire act too sure when he knows as the man who was the centre of attention and action for four years. For that reason, he can be very susceptible to being pinned down on acts of commission and commission on many fronts. Whereas the President, on the contrary, isn’t that burdened by such charges— obviously not to the extent of the Prime Minister’s culpability or vulnerability.
With 2012 and 2017 hindsight, the mere thought of a 2021 Khaire running is enough to shake Nabad iyo Nolol’s campaign machine to the core, if not sounding the death knell for its chances for a second term. Khaire thus will embody the perfect example of gluttonous selfish politician wrecking the boat he is sailing in pursuit of his raw political ambitions. That in itself can certainly knock his ambitions from off its shaky track. Be that as it may, it’s safe to assume that no one is Somalia can be said to live in a more brittle or fragile glasshouse than Khaire: what with his oil and other unexplained income sources and business interests that cannot afford him the strength of heart or confidence to withstand governmental scrutiny beyond his public bravado and grandstanding. For example, what will stop the President from cutting him to size using his vulnerability- oil deals etc.
By dint of his coerciveness as opposed to his persuasiveness and by gym-in his combativeness as opposed to his cooperativeness, Khaire did not only starve himself of a chance to be the first-choice candidate but unsurprisingly also his chance to be anybody’s much-sought-after second-choice candidate. Armed with the “balls test” results, and other vulnerabilities, it’s pretty safe to project that Kharia’s 2021 will be dead before arrival and a total waste of time and resources.
Does this mean Khaire does not have a chance to lead Somalia as President? Absolutely not! On the contrary, he stands far better chance post-2021. All that it takes Khaire to realize his ambition to lead Somalia is to put it in a tight leash, for now, to delay his gratification for just past this next cycle of elections. Hence, chances are the next President or government– assuming he will not become a Prime Minister for the second term– will not be as active as his and that the public will miss his outspokenness and selfie-governance which may catapult him to become President in 2025 or even earlier, if and when elections would be held next.
Ultimately, Khaire would do himself big favour with a bid of stepping back from overrating himself on false readings and parameters. Instead, he should start indulging in a serious self-reflection to find out how much of the self-perceived support he now enjoys in parliament, and his own “class-room cabinet” is real, genuine, and founded on mutual respect. Reliable sources hold that Khaire is loathed and denigrated in private, away from the cameras, by most “students” of his “classroom” cabinet.
Yonis Ali
Email: [email protected]
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