The Impact of the ATMIS Drawdown on Somalia –Very Bloodcurdling Indeed

By Abdullahi Ahmed Nor

Introduction

The African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), formerly known as the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), has played a pivotal role in stabilizing Somalia since its inception in 2007. Tasked with countering the militant group Al-Shabaab and supporting the Somali government, ATMIS has been instrumental in reclaiming territory and maintaining a semblance of order. However, the gradual drawdown of ATMIS forces, scheduled to culminate in their complete withdrawal by the end of 2024, poses significant challenges for Somalia’s security, political stability, and humanitarian situation.

This article explores the multifaceted impact of the ATMIS drawdown on Somalia, with a focus on security, governance, economic conditions, and regional stability, particularly highlighting the corruption within the federal government, the mistrust between the Federal Government and Federal Member States, the effect of illegal arms shipments, and the issue of low morale within the security forces.

Historical Context and Role of ATMIS

ATMIS, under its former name AMISOM, was established by the African Union (AU) with the support of the United Nations (UN) to address the deteriorating security situation in Somalia. Over the years, AMISOM’s mandate evolved to include providing support to the Somali National Army (SNA), protecting key installations, facilitating humanitarian assistance, and contributing to the creation of a secure environment for political processes.

The mission has achieved notable successes, including the recapture of major urban centers from Al-Shabaab, securing main supply routes, and supporting the training and development of Somali security forces. Despite these achievements, Al-Shabaab remains a potent threat, capable of launching devastating attacks against both military and civilian targets at any time. The current Mogadishu Lido beach mass slaughter is what Somalia is enduring when only four months is left from the total withdrawal of ATMIS

Security Implications

The most immediate and apparent impact of the ATMIS drawdown will be on Somalia’s security landscape. The drawdown will reduce the number of international troops available to combat Al-Shabaab, which could lead to several potential outcomes:

1. Resurgence of Al-Shabaab: With no ATMIS troops on the ground, Al-Shabaab may exploit the security vacuum to regain territory and expand its influence. The group has demonstrated resilience and adaptability, and a reduced international military presence could embolden its fighters.
   
2. Increased Attacks and Instability: Al-Shabaab may intensify its attacks on government forces, civilian targets, and infrastructure in an effort to undermine confidence in the Somali government and its security apparatus. This could result in increased casualties, displacement of civilians, and a heightened state of insecurity.
   
3. Strain on Somali Security Forces: The Somali National Army (SNA) and other security forces, which have relied heavily on support from ATMIS, will face greater pressure to fill the gap left by the departing troops. The SNA’s capacity to effectively counter Al-Shabaab without substantial international support is questionable, given its current limitations in numbers, training, equipment, and command and coordination.
   
4. Risk of Fragmentation: The drawdown could exacerbate existing clan-based divisions within the Somali security forces, leading to fragmentation and infighting. This would further weaken the government’s ability to maintain order and combat Al-Shabaab.
   
5. Illegal Arms Shipments: The inflow of illegal arms into Somalia by land and sea poses a severe threat to national security. These arms, often acquired by Al-Shabaab and other militant groups, fuel violence and instability. With no International troops to monitor and intercept these shipments, the proliferation of illegal weapons is likely to increase, enhancing the firepower and operational capability of militants. It was on the social media that Al Shabab acquired Drones on top of their existing sophisticated weapons they have already in their arsenal.
   
6. Low Morale: The morale of Somali security forces is another critical issue. Many soldiers suffer from low pay, poor living conditions, and lack of adequate support, equipment and resources. The withdrawal of ATMIS could further dampen morale, as troops may feel abandoned and ill-equipped to face the challenges posed by Al-Shabaab and other threats. Low morale can lead to increased desertions and reduced effectiveness in operations.

Political Ramifications

The drawdown of ATMIS forces will also have significant political implications for Somalia:

1. Attrition of Government Legitimacy: The Somali government, already struggling with issues of legitimacy and authority, could face further challenges as security deteriorates. A failure to protect civilians and maintain control over territory could erode public confidence in the government’s ability to govern effectively.
   
2. Delay in Political Processes: Key political processes, such as elections and constitutional reforms, may be delayed or disrupted due to the increased insecurity. This could hinder efforts to establish a stable and inclusive political framework for Somalia.
   
3. Clan Rivalries and Power Struggles: The drawdown could exacerbate clan rivalries and power struggles, as various factions vie for control in the absence of a strong international military presence. This could lead to increased violence and political fragmentation.
   
4. Regional Tensions: The withdrawal of ATMIS troops could impact the broader Horn of Africa region, potentially leading to increased instability and tensions between neighboring countries. Regional actors may become more involved in Somalia’s internal affairs, further complicating the political landscape.
   
5. Mistrust between the Federal Government and Federal Member States: The relationship between the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) and the Federal Member States (FMS) has been characterized by mistrust and conflict. Federal Member States, including Puntland, have accused the central government of overreach and failure to honor power-sharing agreements. This mistrust has led to political fragmentation, weakening the overall governance structure of the country. In 2022, Puntland severed links with the FGS, citing disputes over resource sharing. The new divisive constitution of 2023 added fuel to the quest of Puntland political autonomy. This move highlighted the deep-seated divisions within Somalia’s federal system, complicating efforts to present a unified front against Al-Shabaab.

Corruption within the Federal Government

Corruption in Somalia is a silent killer. During the reign of President Hassan Sheikh, corruption, theft and looting of state property reached an unprecedented level. Its sneaky tendrils reached deep into the fabric of society. This pervasive corruption diverts essential resources meant for education, healthcare, security and infrastructure.  Bribery and embezzlement within Somali government agencies crippled service delivery, hindering economic growth and exacerbating poverty leaving countless Somalis without access to basic necessities.

Corruption within the FGS, also undermines efforts to stabilize the country and combat Al-Shabaab as a united front. Public funds are often misappropriated, and nepotism and bribery are widespread. This corruption weakened the government’s legitimacy and effectiveness, making it difficult to gain the trust and support of the population. The lack of transparency and accountability hinders international aid efforts, as funds intended for development and security, are frequently diverted. The consequences are devastating: a population trapped in a cycle of desperation, with limited opportunities for a better future.

Economic Consequences

The drawdown of ATMIS will also have economic repercussions for Somalia:

1. Disruption of Trade and Commerce: Increased insecurity and violence could disrupt trade and commerce, particularly in key economic hubs. This would have a detrimental impact on Somalia’s already fragile economy, exacerbating poverty and unemployment.
   
2. Impact on Development Projects: The withdrawal of international forces could lead to a reduction in international aid and development projects to Federal Member States with the exception of Puntland Federal Member State, which has overall total control of its territory, as donors has become more cautious about operating in an increasingly unstable environment. This would hinder efforts to rebuild infrastructure and improve living conditions for Somalis.
   
3. Humanitarian Crisis: The drawdown could exacerbate the humanitarian crisis in Federal Somalia, with increased displacement and greater difficulty in delivering aid to those in needs. This would strain resources and further compound the challenges faced by humanitarian organizations.

Regional and International Implications

The impact of the ATMIS drawdown extends beyond Somalia’s borders, affecting regional and international dynamics:

1. Regional Security: The Horn of Africa is a volatile region, and instability in Somalia can have far-reaching consequences. Neighboring countries such as Kenya and Ethiopia, which have contributed troops to ATMIS, may face increased security threats from Al-Shabaab and other militant groups.
   
2. Refugee Flows: Increased violence and insecurity in Somalia could lead to a surge in refugees fleeing to neighboring countries. This would place additional strain on already overstretched resources in host countries and potentially lead to regional tensions.
   
3. Global Counterterrorism Efforts: Somalia has been a focal point for global counterterrorism efforts, particularly in the fight against Al-Shabaab. The drawdown of ATMIS could hinder these efforts, allowing militant groups to regroup and pose a greater threat to international security.

Mitigation Strategies

Given the potential risks and challenges associated with the ATMIS drawdown, it is crucial to develop and implement effective mitigation strategies:

1. Strengthening Somali Security Forces: Somalia at this juncture has neither the budget nor the time to establish and equip a regular national army within four monthes. Enhancing the capacity and numbers of the Somali National Army (SNA) and other security forces is essential to fill the gap left by the departing ATMIS troops, which in reality calls for billions of dollars. This includes providing training, equipment, and support to improve their effectiveness and coordination. Addressing low morale through better pay, living conditions, and support can enhance their commitment and operational capacity.
   
2. Combating Illegal Arms Shipments: Strengthening border controls and maritime surveillance to intercept illegal arms shipments is critical, although it is common knowledge that the FGS control is limited to Mogadishu due mainly to lack of modern standing army. International cooperation and intelligence sharing can help reduce the inflow of weapons that fuel violence and empower militant groups only in the unlikely event that the Federal Government of Somali’s reach goes beyond Mogadishu.
   
3. Promoting Political Reconciliation: Fostering political reconciliation and inclusive governance is critical to address clan rivalries and build a unified national strategy against Al-Shabaab. Dialogue and power-sharing arrangements can help mitigate conflicts and strengthen the legitimacy of the central government, but this is too late to address.
   
4. Supporting Development Initiatives: Addressing the root causes of extremism requires investment in development initiatives that improve livelihoods, education, and infrastructure but again the lack of budget is an obstacle. For international aid to be closely monitored to ensure it reaches those in needs and is not diverted through corrupt channels needs a secure landscape which is indeed highly unlikely to materialize given the calendar based  time frame of ATMIS drawdown.
   
5. Engaging Local Communities: Building strong relationships with local communities is critical to undermining Al-Shabaab’s influence. Community engagement programs that involve local leaders and address grievances can help win hearts and minds, reducing support for the group on the condition the people witness that the government has a reliable and fully equipped army which is at the time of this writing isn’t a factor built-in in the design of ATMIS drawdown.
   
6. Enhancing Regional Cooperation: Strengthening regional cooperation and coordination among countries in the Horn of Africa is essential to address shared security challenges. This includes improving intelligence sharing, joint military operations, and diplomatic efforts to address underlying causes of instability, but unfortunately this can’t be achieved with in four months.  
   
7. Combating Corruption: Efforts to combat corruption within the FGS are crucial for restoring public trust and ensuring that international aid and resources are used effectively. Establishing transparent and accountable mechanisms for governance can help reduce corruption and improve the government’s legitimacy but unfortunately this can’t be achieved with in four months.  

Conclusion

The drawdown of ATMIS forces, which didn’t take into account the realities on the ground, presents a complex and multifaceted challenge for Somalia. The potential security vacuum, political instability, economic disruption, and regional implications require a comprehensive and coordinated response from both Somali authorities and the international community.

The international community rationally could leave Somalia only after they insure that Somali security forces are equipped to a high standard, financed and insured that they are able to combat illegal arms shipments and can tackle Al shabab in air, sea and on the ground. Promoting political reconciliation, supporting development initiatives, engaging local communities, enhancing regional cooperation, and combating corruption are critical steps to mitigate the impact of the drawdown and ensure a more stable and secure future for Somalia. While the path ahead is fraught with challenges, a concerted and sustained effort can help Somalia navigate this critical juncture and build a foundation for lasting peace and stability.

The experiences of Somalia provide important lessons for addressing the broader phenomenon of violent extremism in fragile states. For ATMIS to depart without adequate time to fund the project of building the Somali security forces and the development sector, appears to me that the international community is handing over Somalia to Al Shabab on a silver platter.

Abdullahi Ahmed Nor
Email: [email protected]

———-
Related articles
Al-Shabaab in Somalia: An In-Depth Analysis with Emphasis on Government Corruption and the new Divisive Constitution By Abdullahi A Nor

End of Al Shabaab in sight? Exploring three ways By Adan Ismail

Behind the Al-Shabab’s Keffiyeh Mask By Ahmed Khalif

The Defection of Robow: Somalia Fights Al Shabab as it addresses its security gaps By WardheerNews

An interview with HRW Africa Researcher on the report of sexual exploitation and abuse of Somali women and girls by AMISOM soldiers By WardheerNews

---

We welcome the submission of all articles for possible publication on WardheerNews.com. WardheerNews will only consider articles sent exclusively. Please email your article today . Opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of WardheerNews.

WardheerNew’s tolerance platform is engaging with diversity of opinion, political ideology and self-expression. Tolerance is a necessary ingredient for creativity and civility.Tolerance fuels tenacity and audacity.

WardheerNews waxay tixgelin gaara siinaysaa maqaaladaha sida gaarka ah loogu soo diro ee aan lagu daabicin goobo kale. Maqaalkani wuxuu ka turjumayaa aragtida Qoraaga loomana fasiran karo tan WardheerNews.

Copyright © 2024 WardheerNews, All rights reserved