By Ali Abdulle
Just more than a year has passed since the new permanent government led by Hassan sheikh came into office. It was welcomed with huge fanfare and a goodwill expressed by the international community. For a beleaguered nation it was rollercoaster of emotions hoping in the long last there is light at the end of the tunnel. Lifting the UN arms embargo, unblocking frozen assets and relocating UN and AU staff in Mogadishu and many other initiatives came in quick succession. The potential to build up a momentum on the back of these favorable signals was enormous; translating pledges of support into concrete measures bringing about meaningful changes on the ground, a tantalizing prospect.
The president was riding the crest of a wave of popularity never dreamed of by his predecessors enjoying the limelight as governments fell over each other almost as if in a race to welcome him and promise massive support. The British Prime minister was amongst the leaders keen to play a role and even went a step further than others. The prospect of stemming the tide of Somali refugees coming to these shores, eliminating the threat of piracy off the Somali coast and reduced risk of terrorist attacks not to mention the popularity potential was too good to ignore by a British PM facing dismal approval rating at home. Those well versed in the byzantine nature of Somali tribal politics couldn’t help a wry smile at the misplaced optimism of the British PM but nevertheless wished him well in his endeavors.
In his eagerness the PM brought the might of British diplomacy and influence to bear on bringing together the great and the good in the world stage to come up with concrete actions to help Somalia out of the mess she was in. The European Union and Turkey taking their cue from the UK government followed suit and pledged a follow up meetings just as impressive as the London gathering. Even Obama was taken in and honored the new boy on the block in Somalia with a meet up albeit a brief one with well publicized photo opportunity.
What the International community thought they had with this government was a new team ready to hit the ground running, brimming with energy and full of optimism. A new generation of leaders supposedly untainted by the long and bitter tribal wars of the past decades and ready to lead a weary populace out of a desperate situation. The well publicized six pillars put forward by the government were embraced with undisguised enthusiasm and adopted as the basis for the turning things around in Somalia. Britain in particular and others genuinely believed they could help in this regard.
The first flicker of doubt emerged when the new government adopted a hostile approach to the efforts in Southern Somalia to set up a local administration with the full support of the international community and the population in those regions.
The world watched with disbelief as the government in Mogadishu brought the shutters down on all other government activities and concentrated on frustrating the efforts to help set up a regional administration in line with the provisional constitution. Every trick in the book was used to scupper the efforts of those involved in the Jubbaland process including violence. The government squandered the good will of those who believed they could help the country recover from its difficulties. In fact the behavior of the government in those dark days could be summed up as collective madness.
Today Somalia is anathema to British politicians almost a rude word not to be mentioned in the presence of polite society. Even worse, British policy on Somalia has completed a somersault and is now back to where it started off supporting Somaliland and the bottom up strategy as a basis for reviving a Somali state.
The coming to grief of this president’s popularity and loss of his status as the darling of the west is mainly due to three factors
Damul Jadiid factor
It was not known to many analysts and Somalia watchers that the elected head of state belonged to a religious and political organization known as Damul Jadiid which is splinter group from the wider Al-Islah movement regarded as the Somali version of Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and elsewhere in the Middle East. The schism of this group from its parent organization was instigated following the US sponsored invasion of Somalia by Ethiopian army to confront the then dominant Islamist powerhouse in Southern and central Somalia, the Union of Islamic Courts (ICU). When Al-Islah leadership rejected calls from some members to modify their long held view that their struggle will remain non violent the splinter group calling them Damul Jadiid (new blood) was formed advocating military action against the invading forces and the weak transitional government they were backing up. But finding themselves detached from the ideological lifeline of the main organisation and hard to fully merge with the ICU, a Salafist sect, they became rudderless ideologically, susceptible to various influences and ideas from tribal and religious quarters. With no support outside Mogadishu they found it difficult to compete with already established political and religious forces well entrenched in the capital and gain recognition as force to be reckoned with.
Then they hit the jackpot. They won the ultimate prize, the presidency itself. How they pulled off that win is still a mystery. Many suspect substantial financial support from abroad was instrumental as the president had no known financial resources of his own. The vacillations and flip flopping seen earlier in this presidency was in part due to these influences pulling the government in opposing directions as they attempted to negotiate with powerful local forces from a position of weakness.
A year has since passed and a new government is being formed. Here is an opportunity for the president to either jump ship and turn his back on Damul Jadiid or reassess the situation and reconcile the different trends within it, bringing them in line with the federal constitution; that way building a wider power base for his government.
Corrupt Practices
It is corruption however that is the undoing of the current government more than anything else. And it’s the main institution that was meant to be looking after the public finance, the Central Bank that caused the most anguish and embarrassment. With one governor forced out in the midst of corruption scandal and another opting to resign rather than becoming an accomplice to a massive campaign of defrauding the public, the credibility of that institution is at all time low. Well documented cases of misappropriation of public funds make Somalia a byword for corrupt practices. With no system of financial accountability in place or auditing mechanism for revenues and expenditures it is unlikely to deal effectively with dishonesty in high places.
But unless and until the necessary steps are taken to deal effectively with fraudulent practices this government’s tenure in power will end just as the ones that came before it with nothing to show for the years in office.
The parliament
The basis of earlier enthusiasm that this regime will be different from its predecessors was predicated on the assumption that for the first time Somalia has a new parliament different from what we have seen so far. Unfortunately that was the major flaw in the system. A cursory glance at the background of some individuals of that assembly reveals how misplaced the earlier optimism was.
This is a parliament made up of former warlords who barely managed to join and now happy just to be there and keep a low profile. There are also ministers from previous governments who resurfaced in the house keen to gain their former portfolios eyeing in particular the fringe benefits of regular visits abroad. One particularly hapless minister became the butt of jokes after failing to turn up for a meeting abroad although he travelled half way round the world to do just that, representing his country. All the worse for wear and tear after a long night of saloon bar entertainment, he provoked an ironic smile from fellow participants giving away the secret on how Somalia earned its rightful place as the most corrupt country on earth.
This is also an assembly where failed musicians unashamedly usurp academic titles perhaps following Joseph Goebbels’s maxim that if you repeat a lie often enough it becomes accepted as a fact. The contempt the occupants of that place are held by the people they were meant to represent knows no bounds. Even the wild rumors swirling around that some members, male and female indulge in khat fuelled orgies in exclusive villas in Mogadishu are significant not so much for the reliability of its origins but by the unpopularity of the members of this parliament. Its leadership is equally uninspiring led as it is by a long term civil servant never found guilty of committing the cardinal sin of disagreeing with his superiors and unwilling to change a habit of a life time at this late stage.
The earlier hype that this parliament is any different from its predecessors is today a distant memory. Its true colours became clear when asked to oust the then premier by the president. Having turned down his simple request to appear before them and put his side of the story they then embarked on a mission to appear impartial – for the process of knifing the premier was conducted in way that was intended to satisfy a sceptical world public opinion. Counting the votes row by row, double-checking how high a hand was raised “lest” there was confusion and the endless recounts were all part of shrewdly calculated ploy to give the process a veneer of credibility. And it worked up to a certain extent. Some European Union bureaucrats were taken in by that charade of a parliamentary vote and heaped praise on a process flawed right from the very beginning.
The way forward
An ineffectual legislature and a docile speaker is handicap for the effective running of any government but if that is the only thing available through no fault of your own then the only way forward is to look on the bright side of things and turn it into an advantage. Resisting the temptation to use this as an instrument to hire and fire premiers, it would be more beneficial to use as a mechanism to rubber stamp a sound legislative programme aimed at addressing the long term political and social problems of the country. Completing the federated states and tackling the brewing controversy in South Western regions is an early priority to avoid a potentially damaging crisis derailing government agenda.
Paying too much attention and finding compromises with the spent tribal and religious forces in Mogadishu is also an unnecessary distraction. It is high time to ignore the discredited individuals and groups who brought the country to its knees and press on with building state institutions as an alternative to the residual influences of relics from a past era.
Building state institutions is however difficult and time consuming and requires, in addition to straining every sinew, the unwavering support of the international community. Tackling corruption and building bridges with the regional states is a necessary first step to convince disappointed world opinion that this time the government means business.
With the imminent demise of that long time irritant, Mr Farole, establishing healthy rapport with a new leadership in Puntland will not be a particularly difficult challenge.
As with the other exiting regional entity, Somaliland, the softly-softly approach of winning them through compromises is a sound policy and must therefore continue. Bringing recalcitrant region into the fold through a policy of bullying and arm twisting is hardly a recipe for establishing a harmonious union.
The incoming of a new head of government leading a new team provides just the right opportunity to start things a fresh. An element of caution is however warranted here.
The new premier is not an unknown quantity. In the last government of Siad Barre he was general manager of an important and well funded agency. He was in particular known for his close links with the then president’s family and in particular his notoriously flamboyant sons. Corruption in those days was not a shortcoming or dishonor but the essence of running state affairs. Government ministers, managers and other officials acted as though they owned their departments and its resources with serious punishments meted out to those daring to ask question or express a dissenting voice.
That means the new PM is coming not with a clean slate but with a heavy baggage and must therefore portray a squeaky clean image. A weary public that have seen numerous false dawns will be watching closely and rightly so. Any missteps or outright misdemeanors will be judged harshly by the court of public opinion.
Ali Abdulle
Email:barqadle@hotmail.co.uk