By Osman A Hassan

Trump’s second term (2025-2028) policies are speculative at this point, as they haven’t been fully defined, but we can draw some connections based on the broader themes of his first term and his public statements regarding potential future policies. Historically, times of global chaos and upheaval have often led to significant shifts in political landscapes. The periods when the world was in turmoil such as the aftermath of World War I, the Great Depression, or during the Cold War have often been marked by nationalism, isolationism, or aggressive foreign policies as leaders sought to navigate these chaotic environments.

In this context, Trump’s second term might follow similar themes, especially considering the global political climate today. Historically, in times of global disorder, countries often look inward, focusing on national interests and protectionist policies. Trump has advocated for “America First” policies, emphasizing trade protectionism and border security. His stance on restricting immigration, renegotiating trade deals (like USMCA), and withdrawing from international agreements (such as the Paris Climate Agreement during his first term) reflects this trend. A chaotic international environment, especially with rising geopolitical tensions, might further push Trump’s administration towards prioritizing American sovereignty and economic self-sufficiency. His chaotic times often breed populist leaders who promise to disrupt the political establishment and address the grievances of ordinary citizens.

Trump has positioned himself as a populist figure, appealing to working-class Americans who feel left behind by globalization. If global instability persists, this rhetoric may become even more prominent, with a focus on job creation, deregulation, and cutting back on international engagements that don’t directly benefit the U.S. At the same time, there are more aggressive or assertive foreign policies that will have been often seen. Trump’s first term saw a more transactional approach to foreign relations, such as pressuring NATO members to increase defense spending and adopting a “peace through strength” doctrine. If global chaos increases, especially from sources like the rise of China or instability in the Middle East, Trump’s foreign policy might lean toward strengthening military power, enhancing nuclear capabilities, or imposing harsher sanctions.

Throughout history, the world has witnessed significant chaos and disorder due to troubled leadership and the breakdown of political order. These moments often resulted in wars, revolutions, and large-scale instability where global or regional political structures faltered or became chaotic, leading to widespread turmoil. The Western Roman Empire, once the most powerful political entity in the Western world, fell into decline due to a combination of weak leadership, political instability, economic decline, and external threats. The empire was plagued by ineffective emperors, internal power struggles, and corruption, while constant invasions from barbarian tribes such as the Visigoths, Vandals, and Huns further destabilized the regions. In 476 ADs, the last Roman emperor in the West, Romulus Augustulus, was deposed, leading to the collapse of Roman political authority and the beginning of the Dark Ages in Europe. The chaotic leadership during this period contributed to the disintegration of one of the most advanced political orders in history. Similarly, the French Revolution, triggered by social inequality, economic crisis, and an incompetent monarchy, saw France’s political system spiral into chaos. King Louis XVI’s inability to address France’s financial problems and his failure to adapt to the demands for reform led to widespread discontent. The revolution quickly escalated from calls for moderate reforms to radical actions, including the storming of the Bastille and the execution of the king and queen. The ensuing Reign of Terror, led by figures like Maximilien Robespierre, resulted in extreme political violence and the execution of thousands, including political leaders and former revolutionaries. The political instability, with power shifting constantly between competing factions, reflected a world in disarray. It was only under Napoleon Bonaparte that political order was briefly restored, but at the cost of a new form of authoritarian rule.

Likewise, in the early 20th century, Tsar Nicholas II’s disastrous leadership and failure to address Russia’s social and political problems created widespread unrest. The country was economically backward, heavily involved in World War I, and ruled by an autocratic monarch who was disconnected from the suffering of the Russian people. Following the February Revolution of 1917, Nicholas II was forced to abdicate, and the Provisional Government was established. However, the Provisional Government failed to address key issues, leading to the October Revolution, in which the Bolsheviks, led by Vladimir Lenin, seized power. The ensuing Russian Civil War between the Bolsheviks (Reds) and anti-Bolshevik forces (Whites) resulted in immense bloodshed and instability, ultimately leading to the creation of the Soviet Union. The chaos created by the collapse of the Romanov dynasty and the rise of radical political ideologies contributed to a volatile new world order in Russia and beyond.

Same way, after World War I, the global political order was in disarray. The Treaty of Versailles, which ended the war, imposed harsh penalties on Germany, leading to economic hardship and political instability. This period saw the rise of extremist ideologies, such as fascism and communism, as a response to the perceived failure of traditional leadership. In Italy, Benito Mussolini rose to power through violent means, creating the first fascist regime in Europe. In Germany, Adolf Hitler and the Nazi Party capitalized on widespread discontent with the Treaty of Versailles and the Weimar Republic, eventually leading to Hitler’s appointment as Chancellor in 1933. Meanwhile, Stalin’s totalitarian rule in the Soviet Union led to purges and a terrifying political climate of repression. The failure of democratic institutions in many countries, combined with the instability caused by the Great Depression, set the stage for World War II, highlighting how the absence of stable, effective leadership and a functioning political system can plunge the world into chaos.

Following, the Weimar Republic, established in Germany after World War I, was plagued by political instability, economic crises, and ineffective leadership. The Great Depression (1929) devastated the German economy, leading to widespread unemployment and poverty. The inability of the Weimar government to manage the crisis contributed to the radicalization of German politics. In this atmosphere of disillusionment, Adolf Hitler’s Nazi Party exploited the political vacuum, promising to restore Germany’s greatness and stability. After a series of political manipulations, Hitler was appointed Chancellor in 1933 and quickly moved to consolidate power, dismantling the democratic institutions of the Weimar Republic. The chaos and instability of this period, fueled by the incompetence of the Weimar government and the rise of dictatorial rule, directly led to the outbreak of World War II.

Not forgetting, the Ottoman Empire, once a dominant force in the Middle East and Europe, experienced severe internal and external pressure in the early 20th century. The empire’s leadership, under Sultan Abdulhamid II and his successors, failed to modernize and adapt to the changing world, while nationalist movements within its territories further destabilized the empire. The Ottomans’ involvement in World War I on the side of the Central Powers led to military defeat, and the subsequent collapse of the empire resulted in the partitioning of its territories by European powers. The chaotic political aftermath, including the rise of Mustafa Kemal Atatürk’s secular republic in Turkey, led to profound changes in the Middle East and contributed to the region’s ongoing instability.

While not a collapse of global political order, the American Civil War represents a moment when the leadership and political structure of the United States was deeply divided, leading to internal chaos. President Abraham Lincoln’s leadership was challenged by a fractured nation Southern states seceded from the Union over the issue of slavery, and war broke out between the Union and the Confederacy. The Civil War resulted in over 600,000 deaths and caused massive economic, social, and political disruption. The political chaos in the U.S. during this period had far-reaching consequences for the country’s future, including the abolition of slavery and the reordering of Southern society.

The 1970s and 1980s saw significant global political turbulence, driven by a combination of poor leadership, economic crises, and Cold War tensions. The Vietnam War ended in failure for the U.S. in 1975, creating a perception of American weakness and instability. In the Middle East, oil crises in 1973 and 1979 destabilized economies and global politics. The Iranian Revolution in 1979 overthrew the Western-backed Shah and established a theocratic regime under Ayatollah Khomeini, further complicating U.S. foreign policy. Meanwhile, in Eastern Europe, Soviet leadership under Leonid Brezhnev was marked by stagnation, while Poland’s Solidarity movement challenged Soviet control. The Cold War itself, with leaders like Soviet General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev attempting reforms in the 1980s (perestroika and glasnost), contributed to global political uncertainty and the eventual dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991.

Though very short and brief, the Arab Spring represented a period of widespread protests and uprisings across the Middle East and North Africa. It was a response to years of autocratic leadership, corruption, and economic stagnation. Political leaders such as Tunisia’s Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak, and Libya’s Muammar Gaddafi faced mass protests calling for reforms or their removal. While some leaders were overthrown, such as Mubarak and Ben Ali, the aftermath of the uprisings led to significant political chaos, with countries like Syria descending into a devastating civil war, and Libya plunging into ongoing instability. The Arab Spring exposed the fragility of political systems in the region and showed how weak or authoritarian leadership could result in violent upheaval and long-term disorder.

In connection to this, like any other historical chaotic reigns, If Donald Trump pursue his chaotic or disruptive policies during a potential second term, these will have a variety of causes and consequences for both the U.S. and the broader global community. For example, if global tensions continue to rise, especially with China, Russia, or regional conflicts in the Middle East, Trump might adopt more confrontational or nationalist policies. Such situations often prompt leaders to respond aggressively to protect national interests. Then in response to an unstable global economy or new crises such as global recessions, inflation, supply chain disruptions, Trump will implement erratic economic policies that emphasize short-term gains for the U.S. rather than long-term stability or international cooperation. While his domestic political base might demand policies that challenge the existing political and economic order which can lead to populist measures that disrupt both U.S. governance and international norms such as tax cuts for the wealthy, cuts to foreign aid, and deregulation. Hence, like his first term his second term will be marked by a skepticism of multilateral agreements. If this sentiment persists, we will see further pullbacks from international agreements including climate deals, trade pacts, or NATO etc.

This attitude will be influencing by his chaotic desire to “reclaim” American sovereignty at the expense of global cooperation. The global impact of a chaotic second term by Trump will heavily on the context at the time that will lead to significant economic, political, and environmental consequences that pave way a more isolationist U.S. that will leave gaps in global governance and cooperation, contributing to a world order that is less stable, with rising national tensions that weakened alliances. And this period will predict and reflect a shift toward nationalism and populism on the world stage, challenging long-standing international norms and institutions. The effects of Trump’s policies will reverberate far beyond the U.S., reshaping the global landscape in potentially disruptive ways.

By Osman A Hassan

Email: Abayounis1968@gmail.com