Constitution: Guide to Action or a Shelf Document

January 12, 2016January 12, 2016

Editor’s note: Given the importance of the Kismayo conference as part of the ongoing Somali National Consultative Forum to transition Somalia into democracy by the end of the current government’s term in office. WardheerNews asked Faisal Roble on a short notice to weigh on, and also encourages other contributors to participate in this important undertaking that would shape the future of Somalia.
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If those gathered in Kismanyo can’t use the constitution that they have drafted in sound minds, and that for which they spent so much energy to create a pathway to 2020’s transition to a more democratic and federalist system of governance, they will similarly fail to chart a pathway to 2020. Villa Somalia’s repeated propensity to secretly undermine but pay lip service to the nascent Somalia constitution is akin to Qaman Bulxan’s endearing words of wisdom.

“Baadida ninbaa kula deydeya, daalna kaa badane
Oon doonahayn inaad heshana, daayin abidkaaye.”

When loosely translated, it reads as follows:

There is that friend who “in earnest” searches alongside the lost herds; alas, does not want you to succeed at all; treacherous enough he is to mislead outsiders as if he was honest.

Whereas Villa Somalia and its leadership is the dishonest party, the side that is belaboring to find the lost herd is the Somali people.

Recognizing that mischief on the part of Villa Somalia, in his speech at the ribbon cutting ceremony for the expansion and upgrading of the Bossasso International Airport (BIA), former President Abdirahman Farole wished for President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud to return Mogadishu with a change of heart and hoped for him to discard the clan-based 4.5 power allocation. However, President Hassan did not seem to nudge and in his rebuttal accused Puntland’s vain attachment to a similar flawed system in its 18 years of existence.

Despite the two leaders’ exchange in a language that was full of figurative speech, whether any change of hearts will happen cannot be gauged until the Kismanyo Consultative Forum slated to happen on January 14, 2016, concludes. If the same rumors coming from insiders in Kismanyo’s Consultative Forum materializes, President Hassan Sheikh will not need to have a change of heart in his pursuit of clan-based power sharing.

Following its devastating civil war in1991, Somalia finally drafted a federal constitution that propelled Hassan Sheikh Mohamud into the Presidency in 2012. His mandate, inter alia, was to take the nation to a one-man-one-vote by 2016. Under the watchful of Mr. Nicholas Kay, former United Nation’s Representative, Somalia’s most important timelines to a full statehood have slipped out of hand. Today, Somalia is virtually under a soft United Nation occupation mandate. Its security sector is outsourced to Africa Union (AU). At a close scrutiny, the purported partnership between Villa Somalia and its UN guarantor has thus far failed the Somalia people. The $60 million constitution remains to be no better than a mere shelf document.

The War of Will in Kismanyo

As the nation’s politicians and its main stakeholders flock into Kismanyo for the second round of the Somali Consultative Forum (SCF), a manipulative quick-fix pathway to 2020 is already planned out. A Nairobi based joint, Sahan Foundation, established by none other than Matt Brayden, a consultant to Villa Somalia on elections, has already started recycle what it called “Enhanced Legitimacy: Hybrid Option.” A new version of that model is repackaged in a catchy title: “Considerations for the National Consultative Forum and Somalia’s Political Transition through 2020,” and released it in time to influence public opinion. This model’s main objectives are to (1) preempt a negotiated settlement whose results evolve organically; and (2) give Villa Somalia a proposal, ultimately a life line, to dominate the discourse at the Consultative Forum in Kismanyo.

The Sahan Foundation paper assess the short comings of both the clan-based 4.5 and district-based model in this way: “Moreover, since the mechanics of the electoral process would necessarily be virtually identical to the clan-based model, involving clan-based electoral colleges, its main difference from the 4.5 formula would be to award certain clans greater representation in parliament on the basis of arbitrary administrative boundaries, rather than demographic data or any other reliable basis for proportional representation.”

It concludes that since both options have intrinsic shortcomings, there is no way out of using a hybrid version combining the two models. Not really so. To respond to the clan-based formula or to the district-based model, I proposed a model based on federal member states (FMS), which WardheerNews published. In that proposal, I argued that whatever model the nation chooses should be consistent with the draft constitution. Neither the clan-based 4.5 nor the district centered models are in sync with the 2012 drafted constitution.

Indeed, Villa Somali is adamant to refute any model based on regionalism. Ironically, the concept of 18 regions is the only model that has legal standing as units of administration so far sanctioned in the Draft constitution. One wonders, therefore, why Somalia needs a constitution if it is not favored by its own stakeholders, or if the document itself cannot address Somalia’s civil war ravages and a pathway to recovery. That is the question we as a nation need to answer.

Ironically, the twin influence-peddling Sahan Foundation and Villa Somalia (two arms that form the global and local forces that have been shaping Somalia thus far) omitted from discussions (a) that Somalia has a fledgling constitution on which the formation of Somali federal member states are based; b) that the constitution sanctions 18 regions and 275 parliament seats; and c) a simple mathematics will allocate about 15 seats to each constitutionally sanctioned region.

Based on the national discussion so far brewing, there are about four concepts on the table as a pathway to 2016:
a) Villa Somalia favors a model of “Enhanced Legitimacy” which is a hybrid of a clan-based 4.5 and a district system of allocating parliamentary seats. Neither the clan factor nor the district unit are sanctioned in the constitution, therefore using either one of them or a combination of both of them is inconsistent with the law of the land.

b) The district-based model, although far superior to the clan-based 4.5, could be a thing in the future, but it is not part of the administrative units which the constitution currently sanctions.

c) A third alternative is a one-year extension of term for the current Parliament. As unorthodox as this may seem, this alternative is far superior to the above mentioned two alternatives in that if we were to choose this alternative, the house of congress can vote and with a simple majority can draft a resolution to extend its term for only one year. The attraction with this alternative lies in that a bad government for one year is preferable to a sham system that would stay with us for four more years.

d) The only alternative which is consistent with the existing constitution is the region- based allocation of parliamentary seats. This model will allocate seats to the 18 regions sanctioned by the constitution. With 275 seats, each legally recognized federal member state will receive about 15 seats. Each state will be required to observe and allocate mutually agreed seats to minority groups based on their respective strength in each region.

Consequences of Violating the Constitution

Somalia has spent significant local and global resources to draft its Constitution with the following overarching goals:

• Give the nation a system of a democratic rule where federalism based on the concept of regions as opposed to clan is the supreme rule of the land.
• Utilize the federal constitution as a tool for reconciliation, and move the nation to a more perfect union with the potential to address past injustices.
• Lead the country to a place and time where one-man-one vote is possible.

If Villa Somalia succeeds to twist arms at the Kismanyo Consultative Forum slated to commence on January 12, 2016, and if it forges ahead with implementing “Enhanced Legitimacy” where a hybrid of clan-based 4.5 and district-based system of elections are the pathway to 2020, the nation’s draft constitution will be undermined. This will negatively impact both the legitimacy and the constitutional progress so far gained. In the end, leaders who have been preaching federalism, federal member states and regional representation would loose the battle to proponents of the deterministic clan-based 4.5 representation.

Faisal Roble
WardheerNews contributor
Email: faisalroble19@gmail.com
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Faisal Roble is a writer, political analyst and a former Editor-in-Chief of WardheerNews, mainly interested in the Horn of Africa region. He is currently the Principal Planner for the City of Los Angeles in charge of Master Planning, Economic Development and Project Implementation Division.

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This is a interesting view to hold. And it’s interesting to hold since it indicates, as Edmund Burke said it, how every lofty principle, in which others are forever propounding it, there is always a hidden agenda behind it, if one looks into it, very closely.
In other words, if one remembers that Somali federalism was the political concept in which late Col. Yey saw it as the political salvation of his political groupings (i.,e Darood) then its now rather self-servingly and patently obvious why those who are his political heir (namely Puntland and Jubaland) political constituencies, are against the very ideas of basing the representations of the future government on the basis of a Federal Member States (FMSs) sending their individuals MPs to the federal parliament.
And, they are against it, because they realized (rather late in the day) that so far Somalia is likely to have these numbers of Federal Member States (FMSs), namely: 1- Puntland, 2-Jubbland, 3- South-West State, 4-Hiiraan/Shabele-Dhexe, 5- Gal-Mudug State, 6- Banadir (hopefully).
And this implies, politically, that, if numbers of MPs of the federal parliament are divided up in-terms of member states, then its likely (nay, a certainty) that those political groupings, who coalesce around Jubbaland and Puntland, in-terms of clannish lineage, will come out the loser of any competition of the presidency of the federal government in the 2016 selection process.
Moreover, its seems, that even the dreaded 4.5 clannish dispensation, will mean that Villa Somalia (and Culusow in particular) will win in hands down, since, Culusow, is likely to have in his column the Hawiye’s representations, the Digil-and-Mirifle (D/M) parliamentary representations, and the Dir representations. Hence it’s obvious why the Darood representations, who are likely to be from Jubbaland and Puntland states, are adamantly against the whole idea of 4.5 clannish political arrangement for 2016 political dispensation.
Like I said it, earlier, every “political principle” (as the conservative philosopher Edmund Burke once famously said it), is not too dis-interesting (or stranger) to the “aspirations” and the “hopes” of those whose their pen such a “allegedly lofty principles” come forth from it.
In other words, this lofty constitutional idea of basing the representation of the future Federal parliament of Somalia on the old 18 regions of Somalia, because that is what the current provisional federal constitution says, is essentially a way of ensuring that the political representations from the Darood clan should have a larger number of MPs in the parliament, particularly in far more proportion than anyone else.
Of course, just because the late dictator of Somalia, namely Gen. Mahamed Siad Barre had seen fit to “clannishly gerrymander” the old 8 regions of Somali Republic of 1960, into 18 regions by the time he left office in 1990, without seeking anyone else input, is not a legitimate constitutional argument to hold.
After all, no agreed Somali boundary commission or even a legitimate parliamentary committee have decided to create these 18 regions in their days, or even have even consented to it. Hence, to arbitrarily say (or argue) that the 18 regions of 1990s political and regional boundary dispensation are “sacrosanct”, when other’s formulations (be they the current federal arrangement or be they 4.5 clannish dispensation) are illegitimate, only bespoke the peculiar assumption that one’s political interests are “high principles”, indeed. While others’s political interests is nothing but the idea of falsifying the constitution of the Somali State, as Faisal Roble seems to be arguing in here.
Consequently, its poor form for our Faisal Roble, (a learned man, no less) to argue in a such a transparent and clannish way. Which is pity, since if his nationalistic garb (in which he invariably put on for other’s intellectual entertainment) ever had a true and genuine patriotic fiber in its claim, then he would of seen to it, to argue a way that is less of a clannish than the manner he has so far chosen to defend the political interest of his clannish Darood’s lineage with this argument of his, which is solely “privileging” the old 18 regions political boundaries against all others dispensation in the current discussion.
January 13, 2016 Dhako
- Dhako/Cofle has reared his ugly head again. The argument that the late Siad Barre had gerrymandered Somalia’s regions on behalf of Darod is totally baseless. Darods had inhabited five regions (Togdheer, Bari, Mudug, Upper Jubba, and Lower Jubba) in significant numbers (at least 40%) during the pre-military government when Somalia had 8 regions. The 18 regions came from the 8 regions and Siad Barre could not have created them out of thin air.
  1. Woqooyi Galbeed: Did not have a significant number of Darods and was split into two regions: Present day Woqooyi Galbeed and Awdal.
  2. Togdheer: Was the largest region by area and had been split into present day Togdheer (30% Darod), Sool (85% Darod), and Sanaag (2/3 Darod). You can see from these numbers that the old Togdheer’s population was at least 60% Darod.
  3. Bari: Back then as of now 100% Darod. Divided into two regions: Present day Bari and Nugal.
  4. Mudug: Old Mudug was roughly half Darod and half Hawiye even though there are other clans in the region. Split into present day Mudug (about 70% of its population being Darod since Galkacyo, the main center where most inhabitants call home, is at least 80% populated by Darods). Galgaduud is about 70% Hawiye and 30% Darod.
  5. Hiiraan was the smallest region then and hasn’t been split due to its size. Remains 70% Hawiye, with near zero Darod presence.
  6. Banaadir: Old Banaadir was divided into three regions (so much for Siad Barre favoring Darods in his new regional formation policy). Mogadishu became a separate region with 16 districts (again, this demonstrates that Barre’s government did not have ulterior motives of favoring a certain clan; otherwise, Mogadishu would not have had 16 districts. He could have split the city into two or three main districts), Lower Shabeelle, and Middle Shabeelle.
  With the exception of Mogadishu prior to the clan cleansing which took place in
  1991-1992, none of the regions mentioned had had significant Darod presence.
  7. Ulta Jubba: Ulta Jubba whose headquarters was Baidoba and whose population was 40% Darod, was divided into three regions: Present day Bay, Bakool (roughly 40% Darod), and Gedo (85% Darod).
  8. Lower Jubba: Old Lower Jubba, which had at least 80% Darod population, was divided into two regions: Present day Lower Jubba (still overwhelmingly Darod), and Middle Jubba (80% Darod).
  January 13, 2016 Bulhan Warsame
Dear Dhako,
Without insulting anyone, you should rather seek a mechanisim to change the provisional constitution and remove the “18” regions… Also, you don’t like the district-based option either. What do you like? Status qou or 4.5?
Tell us how we proceed given that we have something that resembles a draft constitution? Should we throw it away? Should we go back to the drawing tables and fix it?
Remember it is that dreaded constitution which gives Villa Somalia to lay a claim on the territory that extends from Benderbayla to Raskamboni. People are united through an agreed social contract. Without that, we cannot be a country. That is the bottom line. Sleep with this and suggest a more intelligent option.
January 13, 2016 faisal Roble
- Dhako is a well known secessionist troll and he couldn’t care less whether Somalia remains a country or not. In fact, he sees the continued mayhem as his clan’s best chance of eventually getting a recognition. In essence, he and his ilk are helping in putting kerosene on the fire.
  January 14, 2016 Ahmed Baasto
Bottom line: We have not reconciled yet, and without genuine reconciliation, given the large scale atrocities which some groups had committed against their fellow citizens in the past, I don’t think the current arrangement is going to last that long. President Culusow’s behavior, who acts like a faction leader, embodies the deep polarization among Somalis.
January 14, 2016 Yasin Abdi
Since the Kismaayo conference has ended in failure, it is apparent that some clans do not want to follow the Constitution, and their “my way or the highway” attitude is not going to work with other constitution abiding Somali clans. Now the question is where do we go from here? Should we let them run amok to reignite another civil war even before we have had time to recover from the previous one that they had started 26 years ago? Who is going to rein in these intellectually wanting people?
January 18, 2016 Hersi Farah
If we, the so-called intellectuals, are arguing along tribal lines instead of finding a proper solution for this doomed nation, then we might as well forget a country called Somalia.
January 20, 2016 Mo Yabarag
- It has always been about tribe. Only Samroon navies don’t get it! Be proud of your land and your people. Somalia has disintegrated long time ago, and anyone who dare to entertain about it’s comeback is simply beating a dead horse.
  January 21, 2016 Mohamed Yare
  - In your warped worldview, malaha ninkaan SNM sidaada Uncle Tom u ahayni “waddani” ma aha miyaa?
    January 21, 2016 Hersi Farah
    - Ma adigaa dad “wadaniyad” baraya? Lol. Maxaad SNM ta guri, adeer qabiil na qabiil dantiisa uma sheego. Aniguba “khatumo” Kama hado, laakiin adiga meelbaa ku bugtoo booli-qaran baad wali ka quusan laadahay.
      January 22, 2016 Mohamed Yare
      - Haddaan hadalkaaga si fiican u fahmay waxaad tahay recruiter SNM ah ama SNM u shaqeeya?
        January 22, 2016 Hersi Farah
      - Hersi,
        Sidaan mar hore kuu sheegay, I hate to speak for SL or anyone else for that matter because there are individuals who are paid to do just that. Laakiin, SNM waxba ha ku celcelin, maxay kaga duwantahay SSDF, USC, ONLF SDA,….? Mawqifkayga Siyaasiga aha miyaanan u maddex banaanayn? Maqifkaaga iyo ka tolkaa, dadka WDN soo gala way ogyihiin, markaa dadka kale ma u diidaysaa? Aan kuugu celiyo, Brother, way dhamaatay xiliggii qabiil qabiiil-kale dantiisa u sheegi jiray. Taada iska wado fadlan.
        January 22, 2016 Mohamed Yare