By Dayib Sh. Ahmed

Introduction

The second term of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud has been a surprising and controversial chapter in Somali politics, catching many observers off guard. When Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud was re-elected, there was a wave of hope among the Somali people, a sentiment deeply ingrained in their psyche. Although Somalis do not directly elect their president, any new occupant of Villa Somalia is typically greeted with days of jubilation and high expectations. This reaction stems less from the new leader’s past achievements and more from a desire for change—a change often driven by the failures of the outgoing president.

The optimism surrounding Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud’s return to power was similarly high, as many hoped he would rectify the mistakes of his first term.  One of Farmajo’s critics once declared that nothing could be worse for Somalia than Farmajo’s presidency. The re-election of Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud has proven this assertion to be profoundly mistaken. Under Hassan’s renewed leadership, Somalia has plunged into a state of deepening crisis, demonstrating that the conditions of his second term have been even more detrimental than those experienced under Farmajo.

What makes President Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud’s second term particularly significant is that he is the only president in Somalia’s history to be re-elected and to hold office twice. His first term was marked by failures, and during the presidency of his successor, Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo, Hassan was a vocal critic, especially of Farmajo’s perceived dismantling of Somalia’s provisional constitution. Hassan’s vocal support for federalism, democracy, and the rule of law during Farmajo’s tenure gave the impression that he had learned from his earlier mistakes and was now committed to safeguarding Somalia’s fragile stability.

However, Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud’s second term has been a disappointment to many who expected him to address the deep-rooted issues in Somali politics, including the failure to achieve meaningful reconciliation, build political consensus, and undertake a comprehensive constitutional review. Instead, his leadership has been marked by a regression, with many advancements being undone. His second term has proven more detrimental than even his most vocal critics anticipated, signaling a troubling decline in Somalia’s governance.

The Promise and Reality of Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud’s Second Term

Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud’s second term began with the promise of continuity, with the expectation that he would rectify the mistakes of his first presidency. However, his first term was riddled with significant challenges, including widespread corruption, mismanagement, and nepotism, which not only hindered progress but also exacerbated the very issues he was supposed to address. His administration’s efforts to stabilize the country and promote federalism were largely superficial, and the framework for democratic governance that he attempted to establish was deeply flawed and largely ineffective. Despite these glaring shortcomings, many hoped that Hassan had learned from his mistakes and would apply those lessons to his second term.

Contrary to the perception that Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud was a leader committed to federalism and the rule of law during his first term, the reality was far more complex and troubling. While his administration made some superficial attempts to strengthen Somalia’s federal system, these efforts were more about consolidating power than genuinely promoting stability and unity. The provisional constitution, which was supposed to serve as a social contract binding Somalia’s diverse regions together, was often manipulated to serve the interests of those in power, rather than being a true representation of federalist principles. Hassan’s vocal criticism of Farmajo’s administration for undermining this constitutional framework appeared hypocritical in hindsight, as his own tenure was marked by similar, if not more egregious, violations of the same principles.

The reality of Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud’s second term has starkly differed from the hopeful expectations. Instead of building on the achievements of his first term, his administration has been characterized by a series of failures that have reversed much of the progress previously made. The principles of federalism, democracy, and the rule of law, which he once claimed to champion, have been systematically undermined by his own actions, leading to widespread disillusionment among the Somali people and the international community.

Centralization of Power

One of the most significant failures of Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud’s second term has been his handling of the relationship between the federal government and regional states. Under his leadership, the federal government has increasingly sought to centralize power in Mogadishu at the expense of the autonomy of regional states. This centralization has led to growing tensions and has been seen as a betrayal of the federalism that Hassan once advocated. By concentrating power in Mogadishu, Hassan has undermined the very system he once vowed to protect, creating instability and alienating regional leaders.

This centralization effort has also been marked by a politicization of international aid. Under Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud’s administration, aid has often been channeled to regions that are politically aligned with Mogadishu, exacerbating regional inequalities and undermining the progress made during his first term. Corruption within the federal government has further compounded these challenges, with reports of aid diversion and misappropriation becoming increasingly common. The diversion of funds intended for development projects has left critical sectors underfunded, impeding Somalia’s development and fueling discontent among the population.

Erosion of Democratic Principles

Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud’s second term has also been characterized by a troubling erosion of democratic principles. His administration has been accused of suppressing political opposition, limiting freedom of speech, and undermining the judiciary’s independence. These actions have sparked concerns both domestically and internationally, as they represent a departure from the democratic values that Hassan once claimed to uphold.

The re-election of Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud was supposed to mark a new chapter in Somalia’s journey towards democracy. Instead, his second term has seen a backslide into authoritarian practices, with the federal government increasingly resorting to repressive measures to maintain control. This shift has not only weakened Somalia’s democratic institutions but also alienated many of the country’s international partners, who had hoped for a more democratic and inclusive government under Hassan’s leadership.

 Conclusion

President Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud’s second term has been marked by a series of disappointments and failures that have deepened the challenges Somalia faces. His centralization of power, politicization of aid, and erosion of democratic principles has led to a decline in Somalia’s governance, leaving the country more divided and unstable than before.

The initial optimism that greeted President Hassan’s return to power has given way to disillusionment, as his second term has failed to live up to the expectations of the Somali people and the international community. As Somalia faces growing challenges, it remains to be seen whether Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud can course-correct and steer the country towards a more stable and democratic future.
Nevertheless, given his previous track record, many believe that he is ill-equipped to lead Somalia forward.

Dayib Ahmed
Email: Dayib0658@gmail.com

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