By Ahmed Khalif

Somalia is in limbo; it is in dire need of a leader who can diligently steer it out of its current situation; and its presidential election is scheduled in August 2016.

The incumbent President, Hassan Sh. Mohamud was elected into office, four years ago, in 2012, with constitutional mandate to lead the country into universal suffrage, ‘one person, one vote’ election in 2016. However, few months before the election’s scheduled time, he admitted his failure of holding the “one person one vote” election citing various reasons chiefly insecurity in the country.

Then started wrangling and haggling between the ‘president’ of  the Federal Government of Somalia and the ‘presidents’ of its federal member states over what type of presidential election would be held in 2016 and how.

After they were grappling with each other, for months, over the electoral process in which the  members of the federal parliament who will elect the next President will be selected, the de facto rulers of this beleaguered country “ Somalia” imposed on them to take a process known as the ‘4.5 Formula’. Astonishingly,  instead of exploring and finding new ways to move this country forward, its de facto rulers–Ethiopia and Kenya, masquerading as ‘”MISOM” (African Mission in Somalia) and the ‘international community’-opted for the already-failed divisive 4.5 formula through which the inept incumbent president Hassan Sheikh Mohamud was elected. The reason they preferred the 4.5 Formula is believed to be their desire for reinstalling their favourite, Mr.Hassan Sh. Mohamud as the next president, or replacing him with their choice of his like.

Mr. Mohamud, in his four years term in the office, has disgracefully acted as an errand boy of Ethiopia and Kenya; and he literally rendered up the national sovereignty to the so-called international community.

Mr. Mohamud didn’t only fail to hold universal suffrage in the country; but he also failed in all his constitutionally mandated tasks including a failure to uphold his campaign promises.

From the out set of his presidency,  Mr. Mohamud, with prods of his godfather–Farah Abdulqadir, the leader of Damujadid–was consumed with planning how he could hang on to power. He began with the installation of one of his lackeys, Abdikarim Hassan–his first interior minister who was forced by parliament to resign after failing to perform his duties as the head of the nominal, unconstitutional Federal Member State of Galmudug. Constitutionally, two or more of the provinces of the last centeral government of Somalia prior to 1991, could join together to become a Federal Member State, whereas, Galmudug currently doesn’t  fulfill  such requirement as it consists of only one-and-half provinces. Surprisingly, Galmudug existed before his presidency; however, Mr. Mohamud boasts that he was the brain behind its creation or formation. He also tried but failed miserably to create another member state by forcefully merging Hiiraan Province with Middle Shebelle in order to install one of his other lackeys who would automatically vote for his re-election.

In the security sector, a matter of paramount importance, Mr. Mohamud failed forming multi-clan based Somali National Army to fight Al-Shabaab-a terrorist group that boasts to be affiliated with ISIS and Al Qaida-off the country as Puntland did earlier this year. Instead, he created his own ill-equipped, underpaid, and untrained clan-based militia. Thus he completely became dependent on AMISOM (Africa Mission in Somalia) for his own security. Consequently, Al-Shabaab increased the frequency of its onslaught on the innocent Somali people; they even hit the State House. Antithetical to Napoleon’s famous maxim: “c’est la soupe qui fait le soldat” which translates to ‘an army marches on its stomach’; Mr. Mohamud told his army that “anyone who is not happy with $100 salary in a month can go home now.”

While Mr. Mohamud was in office, it became widely known that the Al-Shabaab terrorist group and AMISOM-a mélange of African military forces mainly from Uganda, Ethiopia and Kenya who were in the country supposedly to fight with it-both operated inside his palace: villa Somalia

Al-Shabaab, a terrorist group that purports to be a Somali resistance movement that is at war with the foreign forces occupying their country, is widely believed to be a clandestine Ethiopian army whose job is to extirpate Somalis from Somalia: a destroy-from-within tactic. According to cui bono principle, their actions show that their number one enemy are the Somalis. It seems they are there to get rid of any

Historically, Uganda was a strategic ally of Somalia’s adversaries: Kenya and Ethiopia; but, aside from that, now its bread is buttered on the side of Somalia’s enemy: Al-Shabaab. It has materiel interest in the continuation of violence in Somalia; the Ugandan soldier that used to get less than $100 salary in his country is now being paid over $1600 a month in Somalia, with impunity to rape Somali women; as result there is little wonder if they provision Al-Shabaab with food and ammunition, for  they both profit from the blood of the innocent Somalis.

There is no need of talking about the historical animosity and the mutual mistrust between Somalia on one hand, and Ethiopia-Kenya alliance on the other; it is in all the books. Today, both Ethiopia and Kenya have their military in Somalia, purportedly giving a hand to the Somali government in the fight with the Al-Shabaab, but the Somalis always had arrière-ponsée, and believed there is a hidden agenda for their military’s mission in Somalia. However, their over-a-decade mission in Somalia, now seem to be more helpful to Al-Shabaab, than to the Somali government; and that probably is not an accident.

The capture of five AMISOM soldiers red-handed, on June 6, 2016 in Mogadishu, selling guns and ammunition to civilians became a testimony for the long held suspicion, by the Somalis, of AMISOM’s conspiracy in the Somali genocide.

By now, it is obvious that AMISOM, after its decade long mission in Somalia, can’t defeat Al-Shabaab in Somalia. The recent defeat of Al-Shabaab in Puntland–a federal member state–in March, 2016 proved that a well trained, well-armed, well-fed Somali army can beat Al-Shabaab. Ironically, the international community and whoever bankrolls AMISOM forces including Ethiopian and Kenyan militaries–in the name of helping Somali people-doesn’t want to create and equip a Somali army to fight Al-Shabaab at less than a quarter of AMISOM’s cost, instead they [the international community] strictly enforce decades-old armies embargo on Somalia.

Currently, Somalia is at a critical juncture; it is between the proverbial abyss in front and the wolf behind; it is between Al-Shabaab (the wolf) and its avowed enemies: Ethiopia and Kenya [the Abyss]; Al-Shabaab is pushing Somalia into the abyss; and unless Somalis boldly and collectively face down their adversaries, their very existence will be in jeopardy. They will be doomed.

Preposterously, Mr. Mohamud–who, in his first four years term, failed in not only all the tasks he was mandated for but also all that he pledged himself–is standing for re-election for four more years. In normal democratic free and fair election he might not even be tempted to stand for re-election, but in Somalia where corruption is awarded and the gold medal goes to the most corrupted, any jack with money can try their luck. Mr Mohamud will mainly rely on exploiting the selection process of the parliament members and buying-off the sell-out parliament members with the money he amassed his four years in office; and his chance of winning is not to be taken lightly.

Somalia is in its death throes; it is dying the proverbial death of thousand injuries; the innocent Somali people have been suffering five decades at the hands of the brutal regime of Dictator Siyad Barre, of savage warlords, and lately of the terrorist Al-Shabaab and foreign militaries; without an iota of doubt, they may not take it anymore.

Somalia is at the crossroads; it needs a leader with a vision, courage, and determination and a leader who can carefully steer it out of the current conundrum and navigate it to the right path. Mr. Mohamud lacks the qualities of that leader; and Somalia can’t afford to waste four more years.

Figuratively speaking the leadership in the society is in the place where the head is in the human body; the head keeps all the six human senses whereas the rest of the body only shares with it the sense of touch; a good leader must have five more senses than the normal person. Every nation is will end up where the leader leads to, in an abyss or on the top of the world; in other words, in a hellish situation or in a heavenly destination. Thus, depending on what type of leader it elects in the coming presidential election in August 2016, a new dawn will break on Somalia or it will be taken over by a dark cloud.

Ahmed Khalif
Email:ahmedkhalif@yahoo.com