What’s behind al-Shabaab’s mall-attack video? Fear that it’s no longer relevant

Tom Maguire

Al-Shabaab has appealed to jihadis to target public places in the west because it fears losing the propaganda war to Isis. Here’s how we should respond

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Why has al-Shabaab produced a video urging sympathisers to attack shopping malls in western countries now? The answer may lie in its desire to be seen as relevant. Most recruits to the global jihadi cause have been drawn to the civil wars in Syria and Iraq, and the attractiveness of fighting against Bashar al-Assad’s regime and for Islamic State (Isis). The conflict in Somalia and al-Shabaab has been overshadowed. Many now talk of al-Shabaab’s decline.

The group finds itself on the periphery of the global jihadi movement. Regional governments in the Horn of Africa, the African Union, and the wider international community have achieved a number of notable successes, putting al-Shabaab on the back foot. The group’s hold over territory and strategic hubs in Somalia continues to shrink under pressure from African Union forces. Their international sources of revenue have been squeezed. And their fervent leader of several years, Ahmed Abdi Godane, was killed in a US drone strike in southern Somalia last September.

However, like Isis and other jihadi entities such as al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), part of al-Shabaab’s strategy has been to inspire foreign sympathisers not only to its cause in Somalia and, more recently, Kenya, but also to carry out “lone actor” attacks overseas. Unlike Isis, its pipeline is drying up.

While some European fighters remain in al-Shabaab’s ranks, they are now few and far between. Al-Shabaab, therefore, needs to inspire followers abroad to play a greater role in raising its profile and achieving its aims. Its leadership believes it can reach out to members of the Somali diaspora in the UK like the failed 21 July 2005 bombers, Muktar Said Ibrahim and Yasin Hassan Omar.

Given its history of protecting against IRA and jihadi terrorism, the UK is well prepared to respond to this kind of threat and may be in a better position than other western governments.

Al-Shabaab’s threat is not the first time a terrorist group has targeted malls in this country. For people living in Manchester in the 1990s, this was an all too real threat. On 15 June 1996, the Provisional IRA detonated a 1,500 kg car bomb on Corporation Street in Manchester city centre. The bomb injured more than 200 people, though thankfully no one died.

Since 2003, the government’s counterterrorism strategy, Contest, has had in place a number of measures to improve the security of these kinds of crowded places.

A national network of counterterrorism security advisers, the Centre for the Protection of National Infrastructure, and the National Counter Terrorism Security Office give advice to organisations in the public and private sectors to reduce their vulnerability to attack. This includes, for example, Project Argus, an initiative that helps inform and advise senior management in preparing a response to serious events like an attack on a shopping centre, a major event, a hospital or a hotel. The 2012 Olympic Games helped the public and private sector build a range of skills and capabilities associated with protective counterterrorism and keeping the British public safe.

History tells us that the best defence, however, comes from communities themselves. In 2008, Andrew Ibrahim, a student from the City of Bristol College, was arrested in Bristol. His plan was to detonate a suicide bomb in the city’s Broadmead shopping centre. It was foiled by the local community, who relayed concerns to the police and who, working with the security services, prevented a terrorist attack. This case demonstrates the importance of a vigilant public and responsive police and security services. This is a central part of the blueprint for protecting us against terrorism. If it is adhered to, any future plots inspired by al-Shabaab or other jihadi movements will be much less likely to succeed.

Source: The Guardian

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