By Abdullahi Ahmed Nor

Introduction:

Since 1992, Somalia had been under an arms embargo imposed by the UN Security Council. Somalia, a country with a tumultuous history, faces a trifecta of challenges: corruption within its government, the proliferation of illicit arms, and persistent tribal conflicts. These interconnected issues have far-reaching consequences for the nation’s stability, security, and development. The illicit arms market in Somalia involves various criminal groups, including local clan militias, transnational networks, and militant groups like al-Shabaab and the Somali faction of the Islamic State.

The partial lifting of the arms embargo on Somalia on 2013 has led to an unintended increase in the influx of illegal arms, exacerbating conflict and instability. Addressing this complex issue requires a multifaceted approach, including strengthening oversight mechanisms, combating corruption, and enhancing regional cooperation, implementing comprehensive political and security reforms, and empowering civil society. Through concerted efforts by the Somali government, regional partners, and the international community, it is possible to mitigate the impact of illegal arms and work towards a more stable and secure Somalia.

The current state of Somalia’s open borders is to blame for the two trucks laden with all forms of illicit fire arms that crossed the border yesterday from the Ethiopian side into Somalia. The two trucks load of the illicit arms is just a drop in the ocean. This shipment is the only one which caught the attention of the people simply because the shipment was intercepted and taken by a clan militia. The Federal Government, instead of lowering its head in disgrace, is surprisingly saying they will get back the weapons from the clan militia which is in reality beyond the reach of its military muscle and in stark contrast, the President of Galmudug Federal Member state’s is more rational as he wants to concentrate on bringing to justice the people behind the trafficking of the arms shipment.  At the time of this writing it is most probable that too many shipments have arrived by land or sea route in Somalia without a wink of an eye. 

Resolution 2714 (2023):- has no bearing on the reality on the ground

After more than 30 years, the UN arms embargo on the Somali government was fully lifted in Dec1, 2023. However, concerns remain about the risks associated with this decision. Somalia is like no other country in the world as it has no control over its territory – land and sea. The federal Member States of Somalia are at the mercy of Al Shabab with the exception of Puntland Federal Member State. Somalia has no functional national army that is fully equipped, no Air force, no Navy and on top of all these, Somali is number one in the world corruption Catalog and to that end, I wonder why the UNS Council called on the Federal Government to take all measures necessary to ensure that weapons, ammunition and military equipment imported for use by certain national forces, as well as by licensed private security companies, are not resold, transferred or made available for use to any individual or entity not in their service. 

While it allows Somalia (Government that is confined to two districts of Mogadishu) to strengthen its security capacity, implementing effective weapons and ammunition management remains a challenge. It is an open secret, that weapons from Somali federal government stocks continue to leak into the illicit market and distributed openly to clan militias in the name of fighting Al Shabab .

Watch and listen to State Minister Ali Balacad. State Minister for Foreign Affairs, on lifting the arms embargo and the drawdown of ATMIS during the discussion of the draft resolution: – BBC interview Video | Facebook . The gist of the lifting of the arms embargo is nothing more than donor fatigue of funding the over 20,000 African forces for so long. When you read the excerpts from the proceedings on the discussion of the draft Resolution, you will clearly recognize that the lifting of the embargo is no more than   a face saving exercise for the International Community that supported AMISOM and now ATMIS for so long without tangible results on the ground; to wash their hands clean and then blame any failure in the near future on Somalia’s Federal Government in the same manner the US heaped blame on the successive governments of Afghanistan.

Please read between the lines of the proceedings of the discussions of the draft Resolution. The whole discussion revolves around ATMIS drawdown without taking stock of the reality on the ground in Somalia.

Taking the floor, Abukar Dahir Osman of Somalia stated: “The adoption of the current resolution on Somalia, which lifts longstanding arms embargo on the Federal Government, enables us to confront security threats, including those posed by Al-Shabaab.”  Sustainable peace and security can only be achieved through a comprehensive approach that integrates security measures with initiatives aimed at fostering long-term stability and prosperity, he said.

“I am pleased to report that phase two drawdown of 3,000 ATMIS troops, will conclude as scheduled on December 31st,” he reported, adding that the Federal Government is committed to fully implement the transitioning of the security responsibility from ATMIS to the Somali National Army within the agreed timelines.  This represents a significant opportunity for his country to strengthen its ability to address security challenges, he said, declaring:  “We remain steadfast in our commitment to upholding human rights, promoting peace and ensuring the well-being of all our citizens as we move forward in this critical endeavour.”

Harold Adlai Agyeman of Ghana, also speaking for Gabon and Mozambique and noting their votes in favour of resolutions 2713 (2023) and 2714 (2023), said:  “We recognize the significant role that Somalia plays for the peace and stability of the African continent and the challenges it faces particularly from the terrorist group Al-Shabaab.”  The resolution, affirming Somalia’s sovereignty and its right to equip its own military, is essential, especially as the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) prepares to leave the country.

Unanimously adopting draft resolution 2714 (2023) (to be issued as document S/RES/2714(2023), the 15-nation Council — acting under Chapter VII of the Charter of the United Nations — decided to lift the arms embargo established in resolution 733 (1992), as amended.  The organ further called on the Federal Government of Somalia to, inter alia, implement the national weapons-and-ammunition-management strategy and promote further professionalization, training and capacity-building for all Somali security and police institutions.

Thousands of illicit weapons from the Iran-Yemen arms trade are transported via maritime routes to Somalia. More than 60 per cent of the illicit weapons found in Somalia had been manufactured in China. The deteriorating security situation in northern Somalia may also allow space for arms-trafficking networks to operate with greater ease. The issue of illegal arms trafficking in Somalia is indeed a significant concern. According to 2023 Global Organized Crime Index, Somali hosts one of the most pervasive arms trafficking market in Africa. 

Efforts to address this issue rationally requires international cooperation to build for Somalia a strong land, Air and Navy forces before even contemplating lifting of arms embargo and only then an effective monitoring to prevent further proliferation of weapons into the country could be entertained.

Conclusions: – The ATMIS drawdown appears akin to the US drawdown in Afghanistan United States–Taliban Deal:

1. In February 2020, the U.S. signed an agreement with the Taliban in Doha, Qatar.
2. The deal aimed to facilitate the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan in exchange for Taliban commitments, including reducing violence and preventing terrorist groups from using Afghan soil.
3. However, the deal’s secret annexes of which the reduction in U.S. air support weakened the Afghan security forces’ ability to counter the Taliban.

Ineffectual Afghan Governments

1. Afghanistan faced governance challenges, marked by corruption, factionalism, and weak institutions.
2. Successive Afghan governments struggled to provide effective governance, leading to public disillusionment.
3. Afghans knew that the U.S. presence was finite, and they would eventually have to deal with the Taliban directly.

Abdullahi Ahmed Nor
Email: abdullahinor123@gmail.com
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