By Abdullahi A. Nor

Somalis had high hopes for Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s second term, envisioning a leader who could unify the nation, combat corruption, and advance democratic governance. Instead, many believe he will be remembered as the only president whose tenure symbolized the culmination of corruption, tribalism, and an obsession with power, tarnishing the legacy of civilian governments, military government, and post-civil war administrations alike.

Somalia faces a convergence of crises that could lead to a catastrophic collapse reminiscent of Afghanistan’s fall to the Taliban. Under President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, the federal government has veered sharply off course, alienating stakeholders, weakening state institutions, and emboldening Al-Shabaab. With the international community showing signs of donor fatigue and the Federal Government (FG) becoming increasingly dictatorial, the risk of an Al-Shabaab takeover grows alarmingly real.

Unilateral Rewriting of Somalia’s Political Framework

One of the most contentious moves by President Hassan has been his unilateral nullification of Somalia’s agreed-upon Provisional Constitution and the parliamentary-based multi-party-Political Consensus System (PCS). Without consulting federal member states, political stakeholders, or civil society, he introduced a presidential constitution that centralizes power in Villa Somalia and limits political competition to just three parties.

This decision is not only undemocratic but also destabilizing, as it undermines Somalia’s federal structure and alienates federal member states that were already at odds with the central government. Puntland and Jubaland, in particular, have rejected these changes outright, while others remain deeply skeptical. President Hassan’s top-down approach has eroded trust and cooperation, essential ingredients for governance in Somalia’s fragile state.

A Misplaced Priority

Jubaland, under President Ahmed Islam Madobe, conducted its state elections in adherence to the Jubaland Constitution and the Political Consensus System (PCS). This move rejected the illegal mandate extensions promoted by President Hassan, which he coerced other federal member state (FMS) through intimidation and bribery into accepting the illegal extention. Puntland. Jubaland’s insistence on upholding constitutional norms has placed it at odds with Villa Somalia. Instead of seeking reconciliation or dialogue, President Hassan has chosen confrontation, mobilizing troops not against Al-Shabaab, but against Jubaland.

This militarization of political disputes reflects a dangerous diversion of state resources and attention from the existential threat posed by Al-Shabaab. The group is already capitalizing on the fractured unity within Somalia, waiting for an opportune moment to exploit the chaos.

Governance as a Private Enterprise

President Hassan’s governance style has drawn widespread criticism for its lack of transparency and accountability. The president has reportedly sold around 70% public lands without due process, pocketing the proceeds, while government appointments are made based on nepotism rather than merit. Crucial revenue streams, including tax collection and government contracts, have been outsourced to companies owned by the president’s family, further consolidating wealth and power within his inner circle.

This approach has fostered resentment among citizens and regional leaders, creating a leadership vacuum that Al-Shabaab is eager to exploit. The president’s actions undermine the state’s credibility and alienate key stakeholders in the fight against terrorism.

Institutional Attrition: Legislative and Judicial Decay

Somalia’s legislative and judicial bodies, critical for checks and balances, have been co-opted by the executive branch. Parliament operates as a rubber stamp for the president’s decisions, often bypassing due process to approve controversial agreements and bills. Similarly, the judiciary has lost its independence, serving as a tool for consolidating presidential power rather than upholding justice.

This forfeiture of institutional integrity creates a fertile ground for lawlessness and fuels public discontent, further destabilizing the country and paving the way for Al-Shabaab to position itself as an alternative authority.

The Illusion of 2026 Elections

Somalia’s journey toward democracy and stability continues to be fraught with significant challenges. Over the past decade, the country has struggled with a clan-based political system that marginalizes significant portions of the population, persistent insecurity caused by Al-Shabaab, and complex relations between the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) and Federal Member States (FMS). Despite ambitious plans to introduce universal suffrage elections, the road ahead remains perilous.

Despite Al-Shabaab’s firm control over large swathes of territory—including South West State (SWS), Galmudug, Jubaland, Hirshabelle, and even parts of Mogadishu—President Hassan insists that the 2026 elections will follow a “one-person, one-vote” (1P1V) model. This declaration is not only unrealistic but dangerously out of touch with the ground realities.

In a move that has further deepened mistrust, the president unilaterally assembled the election commission and handpicked its members. This lack of transparency and consultation has raised serious doubts about the credibility of any electoral process under his administration. Stakeholders, including federal member states, opposition parties, and civil society, are united in their opposition to this unilateralism, leaving President Hassan increasingly isolated.

Troop deployment: A Gift to Al-Shabaab

The Somali National Army (SNA) has been stretched thin due to poorly executed campaigns against Al-Shabaab in Hirshabeele and Galmudug FMS. Recent military operations resulted in significant losses of troops and equipment, much of which has fallen into the hands of Al-Shabaab. Instead of reinforcing depleted frontline positions, President Hassan has pulled troops away from the fight against the insurgency to position them near Ras Kamboni, a bizarre location in Jubaland which is a home for Al Shabab.

Al-Shabaab has been a master of opportunism, exploiting Somalia’s internal divisions to advance its agenda. The group is likely monitoring the situation closely as their intelligence arm is more advanced than the FGS NISA, preparing to launch coordinated offensives should fighting break out between federal forces and Jubaland. Such a scenario would not only divert military focus from Al-Shabaab but also create a vacuum in areas currently under government control, allowing the group to expand its influence unopposed.

Amidst this chaos, Al-Shabaab has demonstrated remarkable resilience and adaptability. The group has exploited the FG’s failures to strengthen its foothold across the country. By positioning itself as a more reliable and efficient governing body in areas under its control, Al-Shabaab is winning the support of disillusioned communities. The group’s ability to provide security, justice, and basic services stands in stark contrast to the FG’s corruption and incompetence.

Al-Shabaab’s shadow governance structures, including taxation, Zakawat and justice systems, are becoming more entrenched as time goes by. This not only strengthens the group but also dents the FG’s legitimacy in the eyes of ordinary Somalis. Mogadishu residents seek justice from the Al Shabab courts which enjoys the confidence of the public for the best part of the last two decades and before that was the now defunct Islamic courts.

Donor Fatigue and an International Withdrawal

The international community, which has invested billions of dollars in Somalia over the past two decades, is showing clear signs of donor fatigue. Efforts to replace the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) with the African Union Stabilization and Support Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) have stalled due to a lack of funding. This leaves Somalia increasingly vulnerable, as ATMIS forces are in the process of drawing down, and the Somali National Army (SNA) is ill-equipped to fill the security vacuum.

International partners are also growing wary of President Hassan’s authoritarian tendencies and his disregard for consensus-building. While they have long supported Somalia’s stabilization efforts, the current administration’s missteps threaten to squander that goodwill, leaving Somalia to face its challenges alone.

The Afghanistan Parallel

The parallels between Somalia’s current trajectory and Afghanistan’s collapse are striking. Like Afghanistan, Somalia has relied heavily on international support to maintain its security and governance structures. Both countries have faced insurgencies capable of exploiting weak governance and corruption. In Afghanistan, the Taliban’s rise was facilitated by internal divisions, poor governance, and the international community’s withdrawal. Somalia now risks following the same path.

If Al-Shabaab capitalizes on Somalia’s disarray, the group could overrun key regions and eventually seize Mogadishu, much as the Taliban captured Kabul. This scenario would not only plunge Somalia into chaos but also create a new safe haven for global jihadist networks, threatening regional and international security.

A Call for Urgent Action

Somalia is at a critical juncture. To avert disaster, urgent steps are needed:

1. National Dialogue: President Hassan must abandon his unilateral approach and engage in genuine dialogue with federal member states, opposition parties, and civil society to rebuild trust and forge a consensus on key national issues.
2. Decentralized Governance: Somalia’s federal structure must be respected and strengthened, with greater autonomy for member states to address local challenges.
3. Security Reforms: The Somali National Army must be restructured and adequately equipped to counter Al-Shabaab, and must never be used under any circumstances to advance a political agenda.
4. International Reengagement: The international community must remain engaged in Somalia, despite donor fatigue. A hasty withdrawal or reduction in support would only encourage Al-Shabaab and accelerate the country’s collapse.

Conclusion: – A Warning from History

Somalia’s current trajectory mirrors the events that led to Afghanistan’s collapse. Internal divisions, poor leadership, corruption and a distracted military enabled the Taliban to seize power with minimal resistance. If Somalia’s leaders fail to unite against Al-Shabaab, history could repeat itself, with devastating consequences for the Somali people and the region as a whole.

Somalia stands at a precarious juncture. The FGS’s prioritization of political battles over the fight against Al-Shabaab, coupled with weakened inter-state cooperation, poses existential risks. Should conflict between the FGS and Jubaland escalate, Al-Shabaab is poised to exploit the chaos, potentially overpowering a fragmented SNA.

It is not too late to avert disaster, but time is running out. The federal government must abandon its divisive tactics and focus on the real enemy before it is too late. The dream of a stable, democratic Somalia hinges on addressing these pressing challenges with urgency and collaboration.

Abdullahi Ahmed Nor
Email: abdulahinor231@gmail.com