Despite biblical proportions of destructions blanketing most of Somalia, the self-declared autonomous region of Somaliland has been a peaceful area for almost the better part of the last twenty years. This has been possible in Somaliland because of several intertwined social factors that may be in the process of being unraveled by Rayaale.

One such factor is the conscious decision of the region’s residents to pursue and foster peaceful coexistence among the majority of its stakeholders, while rejecting the gun culture and instead opting for a peaceful coexistence and accommodation.  A second related factor speaks to the degree of calculated and crafted compromises and peaceful conflict resolution so far employed by the leaders of the region in order to realize the search for statehood by demonstrating commitment to peace and democracy. In this regard, Somaliland has shown to the world that through its traditional leaders, otherwise known as “Guurti,” a bottom up peace building is possible. Last, but not least, an admirable level of experimentation with democracy and a system of governance based on a bicameral system has been establishing roots in the region.

There is also the discernable absence in Somaliland of the warlord
culture, which, in other parts of Somalia, corrupted and ultimately denied their respective people peace and development.

However, today the twenty-year-old precarious peace and governance in Somaliland is tenuous, simply because the sitting president is bent on establishing an autocratic regime.

Since Mr. Rayaale Kahin took over the presidency, first as a caretaker in 2002, after the death of the late President M. H. Ibrahim Egal, and then became a winner of bitterly contested presidential elections in 2003, democratic institutions have been consistently undermined.  Some of his ill-advised actions have been at times tyrannical and repressive. A case in point is the arrest of Boqor Buurmadow, a highly respected traditional leader, and the incarceration of reputed political leaders such as Eng. Mohamed Hashi and Dr. Gabboose.
The most egregious behavior of Rayaala was expressed in his hastily hatched up reoccupation of Las Annod, in Oct 15, 2007.  Mr. Rayaale, a former officer in the late dictator’s Gestapo-like security forces, the NSS, has transformed the hitherto peace enforcing small police force into a combat army. Today, the same combat force is at Mr. Rayaala’s service to relentlessly suppress the public’s ostensibly popular demand for free and fair presidential elections.

Like many of his predecessors as well as his contemporaries in Africa (like Robert Mugabe), Rayaala, whose previous alleged crimes against humanity were strategically overlooked as part of a bottom-up reconciliation process, does not seem to want to relinquish power any time soon. It seems that seven years as a president and two years as a vice president would not suffice his insatiable lust for power, emulating the likes of  Ethiopia’s strongman, Meles Zenawi, who has been ruling Ethiopia for the past 19 years (both as a president and as a prime minister). Likewise, Ismael Omar Gelleh to his north has ruled Djibouti, the multi-ethnic City State straddling between Ethiopia, Somaliland and Eritrea, for the past twelve years.

There are many factors on the ground, including a run-away corruption, economic stagnation, chronic poverty that refused to improve for the last 7 years, clan politics and the power of balance among the stakeholders in the region, which are acting against a prolonged stay of Mr. Rayaale in power. The only other way under which Mr. Rayaale could have continued his rule would have been if some of the major groups, say some of those clans in and around Hargaysa region, wanted him to stay. But given the speed with which Hargaysa instantaneously erupted the weekend of September 10, 2009, Mr. Rayaale appears to have outlived his importance.

Given that the people of Somaliland have a vivid memory of the atrocities that the Barre regime meted against them, things do not bode well for Mr. Rayaale to continue presiding over a City whose residents have in the past successfully risen up against abusive, Stalinist regime.

Hargaisa is currently at a critical juncture and needs a serious discourse to find a safe exit strategy for Mr. Rayaale. The opposition parties, particularly the KULMIYE party, led by Ahmed Silanyo, an often controversial but seasoned politician, need to tone down their rhetoric against Rayaala while encouraging him to sit down for a serious transitional discourse.

WardheerNews Editorial board recommends the following steps as a partial solution to the problem at hand:

1.  As stipulated in Article 86, part 4 in Somaliland’s constitution, “In the event of the one of the circumstances set out in article 86 happening to both the President and the Vice-President at the same time, the office of President shall be assumed temporarily by the Speaker of the House of Elders. The election of the President and the Vice-President shall then be held within 60 days beginning from the date of the occurrence of the circumstance.” If circumstances do not permit for a speedy election, a neutral caretaker government for a period of six months, with a possible extension of another six months and no more than a total period of one year, that is put and organized by the house of elders, or “Guurti” could be a way out.  Such a caretaker government shall be composed of all the active three parties with a recognized and reputable figure as the head of the caretaker government.

2. Mr. Rayaale must be given an assurance that he will be safe from any persecution in the future for any of the purported crimes so far committed during his tenure. This strategy should be accompanied by a full immunity given to Mr. Rayaale and his family in one of the IGAD or Arab countries.

3. That a new free and fair election must be scheduled for Somaliland no later than the end of the year. The voter registration information and database collected and collated by INTERPEACE must remain untainted and, if need be, refined.

The follies that can result from Mr. Rayaale’s blind pursuit for an autocratic rule in Somaliland at this time are too serious to be ignored. Since Mr. Rayaala and his misrule have reached a point of no return, replacing him with a democratically elected president is the unavoidable choice for now.

Send your Comments to: WardheerNews Editorial Board