By Osman Nur Mohamed
Will they elect pro – Federal backed leader, Damul Jadid, a local leader (DalJoog) or unknown leader? The answer to this question will be clear on 8th January however, this article highlights the potential candidates for the presidential election on 8th January 2019. It also presents an analysis about the local perceptions about the election and other factors. This opinion article predicts who will be the best leader based on many factors despite it is tough to predict due to the staggering amount of presidential candidates, the uniqueness of the election and the rise of Dr Ali Isse to the race which will make the competition very interesting and may open new dawn on how the politics is played out in Puntland.
Some of the issues that Puntlanders abhor include bad leadership, corruption, tribalism and the prescriptive formula locally known as Taraha, which is in line to clan-based selection. This word came following the subsequent selection of the former presidents and current incumbent who are all from the same clan- Mohamud Saleybaan. To that regard, it is seen as a model created by this clan. Puntland citizens abhor these mentioned things for their future generation and expect change to happen. These issues and many others are amongst some of the driving factors that will trigger the MPs to elect the best and right leader for Puntland who will advocate Puntland communities locally and globally. It will be tough task for the MPs to decide and elect that leader with skills and qualification required to lead Puntland for the next five years.
Puntland had four presidents that had ruled the semi- autonomous region of Puntland. These leaders ruled Puntland for the last 19 years since the establishment of Puntland. The presidential seat has been filled by members that belong to Mohamud Saleyman. This is perceived as injustice by the other clans within Majeerten. With the exception of that time when the founder of Puntland, the late Abdillahi Yusuf, went to claim the national presidential seat. And his vice president, Mohamed Abdillahi Hashi, served the remainder of the term for a period of five months. Mohamed Hashi is a member of Dhulbahante clan.
When it comes to clan based selection of the presidential seat in Puntland; it goes to the clan based selection which seems to be a formula set when it comes to power sharing. Warsangali for the speaker of the parliament, Dhulbahante for the vice president and Majeerten for the president. So the rest of clans those belong to eastern Bari have never had the chance to rule the region and it is perceived that they are overlooked and have deep-seated grievance. Let alone other clans such as Laylkase, Ali Saleyman, Dashishe who are commercial and boost the economy of Puntland. However, there is a strong candidate from Ali Salayman who is fighting this time around for the top leadership.
Given the trends of clan-based selection that Puntland has been using, it is seen as political culture used by Mohamud Saleyman. Majority of Puntland citizens has translated this trend to prescriptive formula that gives a chance to the same ruling clan.
This election has attracted more than 35 candidates vying for one popular presidential seat. The winner will be elected by a clan assembly consisting of 66 lawmakers. 77% of the lawmakers are young and educated; to my understanding, there is only one female, which does not represent the women quota of the 30% that government has committed for women. This is an indication of the lack of implementation of the promises towards the women empowerment and inclusive politics.
The speaker of the parliament and his deputies were elected by the MPs on 4th January 2019 and this had opened an eye for many candidates who already started withdrawing from running. There is ongoing lobbying in Garowe and you may find restaurants are full of PMs invited by different candidates those present their political agendas, vision and some promises. The level of lobby of candidates vary from one candidate to another due to their campaigners, and supporters, and the heavyweight of the candidate.
So far 10 out of the 35 candidates are potential and there is a likelihood that nearly more than 20 candidates will be registered for the presidential seat election on 8th January while the rest are likely to abstain from their candidacy. To glance the qualification, skills of some of the potential candidates and the regions they hail.
Sool:
Dr Ali Isse is a Somali -American from Sool region. He completed his first degree in economics, an MBA in international Finance, and a PhD in economics at Washington University, St. Louis. He spent several years working with Citi Bank NY, the National Bank of Somalia and teaching at Universities in the United State in the 1970s. He worked at the International Monetary Fund for two decades plus assisting member countries of that institution in sound macroeconomic policy formulation and management. He left the Fund to be a founding member and the Managing Director of the Horn Economic and Social Policy Institute (HESPI). Ali is a strong candidate for the presidential seat and his rise to the race and how the politics is played out in Puntland will make the competition tough and fascinating.
Nugaal:
Abdi Farah Said known as Juha (Isse Mohamud clan) who is a Somali – Canadian from Nugaal region with strong political track record and background in Puntland where he worked as minister of education during President Abdurahman Farole. Mr. Juha was the former FGS interior minister between March 2017 January 2018. He worked with UNSOM Puntland office; he is a potential candidate.
General Said Mohamud Hersi known as Said dhere: Said was the FGS-Federal Government of Somalia army chief during President Abdullahi Yusuf’s term and from 2009 – 2018, he was the chief of army of Puntland. Gen said has strong army experience and served the Somali National Army during Siyad Barre’s regime.
Bari region:
Said Abdullahi Deni (Osman Mohamud clan) who is a Somali- British citizen from Bari region. He is a former SFG planning minister during president of Hassan Sheikh Mohamud term, Mr Deni ran for the SFG president in February 2017 with the current president of Somalia, Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo. It is rumored that Deni has a close ties, and affiliation with former Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud. Said Deni is amongst the heavy and potential candidates and he has strong and credible campaign managers.
General Asad Osman (Osman Mohamud clan) is a local leader, middle-aged young man about 40 years and he was the former commander of the Puntland Security forces (a well trained and equipped army division supported by America). He has served more than 10 years in the security sector leading the division with significant achievements. Such as the fight against the Al-Shabaab and IS. His good leadership and legacy at the PSF will be remembered, as many people believe.
Mr Mohamed Khalif Jebiye is a Somali – American – (Osman Mohamud tribe) dual citizen a wealth man locally nicknamed (daadiye). Mr Jebiye is businessperson in America and he is financing his presidential campaign by visiting all Puntland regions. He demonstrated good behavior of being generous as he had contributed money to the local communities such as sports in Galkayo and many other important areas in Puntland.
Farah Ali Shire is a Somali – Australian with finance background and businessman from Bari region, Mr. Shire was the Puntland finance minister during President Farole term, Mr. Shire is a close friend with Abdirahman Mohamud Farole, former Puntland president. Farah is likelihood to get political support from former Puntland President Farole. He belongs to Ali Saleban clan, a different clan from the all Puntland previous presidents but under the Majerteen hut
Mudug region
Dr. Abdiweli Mohamed Ali Gaas, the incumbent president of Puntland is a Somali- American and was the former prime minster of the SFG during President Sheikh Sharif term. The current president is facing tough political challenges while his Vice president Eng. Dr Gaas is heavily criticized due to poor leadership, corruption and nepotism by the local communities and he failed to run many mega projects in Puntland due to the corruption
Mr Ali Haji Warsame, is A Somali- British with a finance background, a former Puntland education minister between the 2014 -2016, Dr. Ali Haji is the biggest opposition candidate against president Gaas, he is from same clan with the current President Gaas. Mr. Ali ran for the president office for the SFG in 2017.
Some of the determinant factors for the president
The election of the speaker is an evidence that the Puntland is going through the clan based selection which was orally agreed and it seems that this model will be maintained for the benefit and existence of Puntland state as many politicians and chiefs believe. Moreover, Mohamud Saleyban domination in the top leadership will flourish in terms of politics, and army. However there is a glimmer of hope as there are many candidates from the other Majeetern clans who are contending this time and want to overcome the prescriptive formula (Taraha) which is perceived as a milestone around the neck of the Puntland citizens.
The other key determinant factor is Dhulbahante clan who have 17 seats in the parliament that dictate the chance of the winning president and they are said to be that their vote go together. They prefer candidate that they think may fulfill their promises when elected. It is rumored that they will not vote for candidates that hail from Osman Mohamud this term as they argue that it was Osman Mohamud when their land was captured by Somaliland and instead they would prefer Omar Mohamud for two reasons; 1) Army and 2) logistical support. However, the game is complicated by their son who is one of the candidates for the presidential seat this time.
The other factor is the high number of youth and educated who are feared to block this prescriptive formula and elect the best leader on merit and qualification basis in which Puntlanders anticipate.
As politics is the art of possibility, many people believe that this prescriptive formula of giving the presidency to one clan named to Mohamud Saleyman to end and give a chance to other clans of Majerteen who have the political will and capacity.
On the contrary, many elders believe that this formula will be there until the day of one-man vote due to economic, army, and many other factors that need to be studied further. I think these factors are amongst the contributing factors why the presidency is favored to Mohamud Saleyman rather than the other clans whose time will come one day.
The game is very fascinating as the time of elections is approaching and candidates have joined into the groups led by potential candidate is likely to win in presidential seat.
In my personal viewpoint, more than 20 candidates will compete and the chance for the current incumbent is minimal and will not go to the next round of the election. It is hard that he will come back due to his record as a leader, and the history, which shows that Somalis do not elect leaders in two terms since 1956 up to now, but something miracle can happen any time.
Therefore, I predict that four candidates will go to the next round of the election, these are Said Deni, Ali Haji, Asad Osman, and Farah Ali and third round, Ali Haji Warsame, and Said Deni will compete while Said will be the president of Puntland if we go by history.
Some of the reasons why Ali and Deni will be the finalists are attributed due to their leadership traits. For example, Ali is a well-known quantity in the politics of the region. He is sharp, out-spoken and a religious scholar with moderate opinions. Ali is descent and a presidential material. He has good track record in Puntland where he served as the education minister between the 2014 -2016 while Deni is a successful businessman who has extensive business interest ties in Dubai. He was a former SFG planning minister during president of Hassan Sheikh Mohamud term, Mr Deni ran for the SFG president in February 2017 with the current president of Somalia, Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo. Said Deni is amongst the heavy and potential candidates and he has strong and credible campaign managers.
It seems that Puntland is adopting a combined model of clan-based selection and merit based selection as of now due to the interest of the region. But it is not something good for the next generation but time will tell as we move forward towards one man vote.
Osman Nur Mohamed
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Osman Nur holds a Masters in peacebuilding. He is humanitarian worker. He can be reach him via e-mail: [email protected]
may follow him on Twitter: @OsmanNurMohame3
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