As Nigeria waits for delayed polls for a hotly contested national election to open, opposition presidential candidate General Muhammadu Buhari says he fears for the “Somaliasation” of Nigeria amid mounting security fears and a spiralling economic crisis.
Somalia, which has lacked a functional central government since 1991, is regarded as the quintessential example of a so-called “failed state” and regularly ranks at the bottom of most development and governance indexes.
“I warned at least six months ago that we have to be careful about Somaliasation of Nigeria.”
Mr Buhari said in an address in London.
“If the Somali elite can mess up their country – this is a worry for the Nigerian elite. Let them come together and hold their country together.”
Nigeria’s presidential election was originally scheduled to take place on 14 February. However, the national electoral commission announced a six week delay to the poll on 7 February citing security concerns linked to the violent Boko Haram insurgency that has carved out a quasi-independent territory for itself in the country’s northeast.
Incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan faces sharp criticism for his failure to curb Boko Haram during his tenure. Mr Buhari’s references to Somalia draw parallels between the consequences of the failure of governance critics have levelled at the Jonathan administration, and the incursion of Al Shabbab – the Al Qaeda linked Islamist group that has perpetrated attacks throughout the Horn and eastern regions of Africa – into Somalia as the kind of threat that can settle into such vacuums.
“It is not alarmist. I think I am very clear about this statement: Somalis are basically the same group, they are mostly Muslims. Yet because the elite is so incompetent and so selfish, for 20 years Somalia has not been a country. Therefore if you compare it to Nigeria, Nigeria is much more vulnerable,” Mr Buhari tells This Is Africa on the side of the event.
Nigeria has a much larger and more diverse population than Somalia, which Mr Buhari argues leaves the country open to fragmentation. Nigeria has five main ethnic groups, and also faces divisions along geographic and religious lines between the mostly Christian south and Muslim north.
The move to delay elections has come under intense scrutiny, both in Nigeria and internationally. Nigeria has a long history of voting irregularities and violence around elections. The contest between Mr Buhari and incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan is set to be the most fiercely contested since the advent of multiparty democracy in the country in 1999.
According to Afrobarometer polls from the end of January 2015, the two candidates are neck and neck with 42 percent each. The delay to the polls has sparked fears of violence and accusations of vote rigging on both sides.
In the address, Mr Buhari made clear that his party would not accept any further delays to the poll.
“Any form of extensions under whatever guise is unconstitutional and will not be tolerated,” he says.
The government has said polls will take place as scheduled on 28 March. However, APC party officials have cited recourse to pressure from international partners should the government attempt a further delay. These could include campaigning for “key ministers and key cabinet members” to be “faced with sanctions” including travel bans, APC party spokesperson Lai Mohammed tells This Is Africa.
Consolidation or fragmentation?
Should Mr Buhari’s All Progressives Party (APC) win, it will mark the first time the ruling People’s Democratic Party will not hold the presidency. The APC is keen to paint an opposition victory as a move towards democratic consolidation, as well as an alternative to corruption and mismanagement under President Jonathan’s leadership.
Mr Buhari has painted himself as an anti-corruption crusader throughout his campaign, a theme he reiterated in London.
“On corruption there will be no confusion as to where I stand…the corrupt will not be appointed in my administration,” he claims.
“The Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) will have one set of books only, their revenues will be publicly disclosed and regularly audited.”
Nigeria is the continent’s largest oil producer, and the country’s sector is notoriously opaque. Most recently, the NNPC was embroiled in a 2014 scandal that saw President Jonathan fire the country’s central bank governor, Lamido Sanusi, after the latter claimed at least $20bn in revenues were missing from the company’s books.
The missing funds have not yet been accounted for, though some members of government claim that they will soon release the results of an independent audit of the state entity conducted by PwC.
The candidate’s strong stances on corruption and reputation for modest living have made him popular amongst the country’s poor, the vast majority of whom have yet to see benefits from an economy that has experienced strong growth over the past decade. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, 60.9 percent of the population lives on less than $1 a day – a figure that has risen from 54.7 percent in 2004.
However, other prominent members of the APC do not share the same reputation, such as Rivers State governor Rotimi Amaechi and former Lagos State governor Bola Tinubu, both of whom have been accused of rampant corruption during their times in office.
Despite these bold stances, however, some critics question Mr Buhari’s democratic credentials. A former military ruler, he took power in a coup against elected president Shehu Shagari in 1983, ruling the country until 1985 before being deposed in turn. His time in office is remembered for taking a hard line on corruption, as well as its disciplinarian nature.
However, he claims he is now committed to the country’s democratic project – with the track record to prove it, having stood in and lost three previous presidential contests.
“I take responsibility for whatever happened under my watch. I cannot alter the past, but I can change the present and the future,” he says.
“I stand before you a former military ruler, now a converted democrat.”
Source: Thisisafricaonline
Leave a Reply