By Prof. Abdurahman Baadiyow
Marking the 54th year since the last democratic election held in Somalia in 1969, as well as the 23 years since the re-establishment of the Somali state in 2000 through the Djibouti Peace and Reconciliation Conference, the Somali Federal government is firmly dedicated to conducting 1P1V elections. The election-related process commenced earlier in the current administration term, employing a bottom-up approach that starts from the elections of district councils and the Federal Member States (FMS) parliament members.
This progression is set to continue, culminating in the national election of the federal parliament in 2016. Many observers consider this plan to be highly ambitious and even a daydream. However, Somalia has only one alternative to build a viable state except to work vigorously and persistently to reach that goal partially and wholly.
Lessons learned from the setback of Somalia’s initial democratic experience in the first nine years of independence teach us that there is a need to create an electoral system that limits the number of political parties such as high thresholds (7% or 10%), employing voter registration to avoid rigging elections, and to adopt a proportional election model of the close list to mitigate clannization of politics. The consequence of the rigged election of 1969 was tragic in causing the assassination of President Abdirashid A. Shamarke on October 15, 1969, and a military coup on October 21. The subsequent 21 years of military rule they have culminated in a devastating civil war.
After ten years, the country embraced a power-sharing model of 4.5 in 2000. This system of entrusting clan elders with the selection of MPs was deemed essential for fostering trust among clans. It served as a reconciliatory gesture and exemplified an inclusive approach aligned with Somali culture, recognized as indispensable for restoring the Somali state. As many argue, there were better approaches than clan-power sharing for state building, but a peacebuilding model.
The establishment of the modern state is founded on individual citizens, the rule of law, and the equality of all citizens. During this pivotal conference, I was privileged to lead the technical team developing the National Transitional Charter, developed by the 30 Somali professionals at a secondary school in the Arta town of Djibouti. Participants of the Arta conference anticipated holding elections within three years. However, after 23 years, discussions and disagreements continue about conducting elections and transitioning from clan-based power sharing to a citizen-centric electoral system. Examples of such disputes on election matters are evident in Somaliland, which had a long experience of elections, and Puntland, which had succeeded in holding elections in most districts. Still, disagreements are mounting to hold parliament and president elections.
It is undeniable that the existence of formidable challenges in organizing free and fair elections in Somalia at all levels. It requires, first and foremost, the political elite agreement on the modality and procedures of the elections. It requires developing many regulations, such as political party laws, election laws, and many more. These challenges encompass security, culture, finance, technical issues, and many more. However, breaking the vicious cycle of clan-based power-sharing is imperative to establish a modern and sustainable Somali Federal state.
The Arta political framework, employing the 4.5 formula, has reached a deadlock, and repeating it is tantamount to revolving around a vicious cycle of status quo or even creating instability. Indeed, embarking on the transformative path of 1P1V requires courage, dedication, and a reasonable approach to address the associated challenges. The success of Somali elections depends primarily on the political elite agreement and their commitment to accept the transitional period required to cross to the shore of democratic transformation.
There are valuable lessons and insights to learn from the experiences of elections held in Somaliland and Puntland District Councils. Moreover, the Somali people are the primary asset in this endeavor, renowned for their freedom-loving culture and the inherent tradition of consensus-building. Additionally, the younger generations in Somalia strongly desire democracy and express disappointment with the prevailing selection processes. These forward-looking individuals inhabit a technologically interconnected global world and aspire to see Somalia join the ranks of developing nations that thrive in peace and prosperity.
Since the inception of the current administration, the National Constitutional Council (NCC) has convened numerous meetings and endorsed several pivotal agreements. Notably, one such agreement involves the unification of the Federal Member States (FMS) elections and conducting elections by the end of 2024. However, the formalization of these agreements falls under the prerogatives of the National Constitutional Commission, which intends to present them to the Federal Parliament for consideration. It is essential to distinguish between the constitutional rights of the NCC to agree on specific constitutional issues and to consider their agreement as articles of the constitution, which are the prerogatives of the Federal Parliament. The NCC agreement is not a constitution and has no legal power unless the parliament approves it and the President signs it.
The absence of Puntland in the last two NCC meetings is another concern and challenge besides the separatist Somaliland. However, efforts should be made to devise a suitable arrangement to incorporate Puntland into this crucial process. Managing elections requires establishing an Independent Electoral Commission, comprising 15 members proposed by the NCC, which is deemed indispensable for actualizing these elections. The 15 members include two from each Federal Member State (FMS) and Banadir region and three from the Federal government. The initiation of this commission’s formation is contingent upon parliamentary approval, and it will assume full responsibility for conducting the electoral management and proceedings.
It is noteworthy to reiterate the main commitments of the current Somali administration, ranging from liberating the country from Al-Shabaab across various regions and enhancing security, finalizing the Provisional Constitution, attaining debt relief, joining the East African Community (EAC), fostering reconciliations among political elites and clans, to preparing the country for 1P1V elections. As Somalia emerges from the shadows of past challenges and the dark tunnel entered since the collapse of the state in 1991, it is an opportune moment to shift Somalia away from its previous political culture, shaped by the mistrust of civil war, towards a future characterized by peace and prosperity, both internally and on the global stage.
In the grand scheme of elections, the prosperity of the Somali nation hinges on the crucial factors of political elite consensus, the adept formation of a national unity government, and the establishment of a collective vision for the future that accommodates the diverse spectrum of political stakeholders. The trajectory of Somali development is intricately tied to the collaborative efforts and cohesive vision that will bring together all key players, fostering a united and inclusive approach towards shaping the nation’s destiny.
Dr. Abdurahman Baadiyow
Email: [email protected]
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