By Faisal A. Roble

The US position on the War in Northern Ethiopia has been consistent all along.

Since November 4, 2020, the general position of the US government has been of two fold. First, it diplomatically wanted to end the conflict in a peaceful manner.  The second position was to maintain humanitarian aid and open up access to food and medicine by the needy people in Tigray.

In the early phase of the conflict, Prime Minister Abiy has been recalcitrant and ignored the US’s effort to find a diplomatic solution to the conflict and to feed starving Tigray people.

President Biden’s special envoy to the region, Jeffrey Feltman visited Addis Ababa several times in August and September 2021. But he came back not only empty handed but humiliated, something the US does not take well. 

Samanta Power, an expert in the Horn who had served in Sudan many years, also tried to give  Prime Minister Abiy the benefit of the doubt and work with him to solve his country’s conflict. So undiplomatic he was, he even at times refused to meet with her or lowered the importance of  her visit to Addis Ababa.

Samantha power, a heavy weight in the foreign policy community and the head of the USAID, not only decides on aid distribution but recommends peace making for the administration. Add to that Ambassador Linda-Greenfields repeated calls on Prime Minister Abiy from her UN office to heed the world’s plea for letting starving Tigre people under the Addis imposed blockade receive food and medicine.

All international calls on Abiy fell on Addis Ababa’s deaf ears, thus resulting in Washington de-emphasizing its diplomatic efforts and watching the conflict theater from Afar.  It, however, made clear to all warring sides that anyone committing human rights abuses will not be forgotten. 

Washington rolled out the first phase of its layered sanctions against Addis Ababa. More is expected to come.  Moreover, Addis Ababa is on the verge of losing its coveted position of African Growth Opportunity Act (AGOA). If Ethiopia loses this designation, the employment status of over 1 million Ethiopian will negatively be impacted. However, Abiy’s refusal to work with the US State Department may have precipitated this harsh action.

With Inflation soaring at 34%, GDP hitting rock bottom, and the IMF declining to draw any realistic projections of the country’s economic performance, the delay of the $ 500 million loan to pay off the transaction of Safricom could not have come at a worse time. Addis is brok militarily, financially, and diplomatically. Even The Russian federation indicated last week that Prime Minister Abiy’s precarious position in the war was not sustainable.

Washington has warned in the past Addis Ababa on bombing population centers. The latest came when Abiy ordered his Russian-made Migs bomb Makale killing innocent civilians. 

To remain consistent, Washington also now warned the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF), whose total victory over Addis Ababa is becoming more of a bitter reality for Abiy and his crumbled ENDF, to not use mortars in the population centers.  Such a warning was issued to TDF by Washington as TDF took over Dessie, which is an industrial and strategic city only about 400 KM from Addis Ababa. 

Given America’s commitment to regional stability, the State Department would want to see an expedited conclusion of the conflict. If that happens, Washington will quickly move on to work with any part that becomes that resident of Arat Kilo. 

So far, though, Prime Minister Abiy missed many opportunities to stay at Arat Kilo Palace, and his tenure as a Prime Minister may come to an end.  If so, he will be the shortest transient resident of this Place initially built by emperor Menelik.  

Faisal A. Roble
Email: faisalroble19@gmail.com
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Faisal Roble, a writer, political analyst and a former Editor-in-Chief of WardheerNews, is mainly interested in the Horn of Africa region. He is currently the Principal Planner for the City of Los Angeles in charge of Master Planning, Economic Development and Project Implementation Division.