By Abdiwali Sayid
The two neighboring countries, Somalia and Kenya are in diplomatic feud due to maritime dispute over the ownership of triangle 100,000 square kilometers (38,610 square mile) with potential hydrocarbon deposit. The row reached the peak when Kenya Summoned its ambassador and sent the Somali ambassador to Mogadishu, claiming that Somalia auctioned a territory owned by Kenya during a public meeting organized by the Ministry of Petroleum and Mineral Resources and Spectrum Geo, a Norwegian seismic data processing company to present a seismic data collected by spectrum and offer for sale a detailed information about offshore blocks at the beginning of this year.
The Federal Government of Somalia rejected Kenya’s argument and confirmed that, contested maritime territory won’t be auctioned until a settlement is reached. Later the two countries issued two statements assuring the inevitability of settling the conflict peaceably to prevent any security backfire.
To protect its legitimate rights and its sovereignty, Somalia filed in 2014 a case against Kenya to the International Court of Justice (ICJ). Somalia wants its sea border with Kenya to be longitudinal and extend from the land border in the southeast direction. On the other hand, Kenya seeks its sea border with Somalia to be demarcated in parallel with the line of latitude on its eastern border. İn a fear to lose the battle, Kenya tried to sabotage the case transfer to the ICJ by using a memorandum of understanding signed on 2009 between the two countries, back then, the memorandum of understanding was rejected by the Somali parliament.
According to the Federal Republic of Somalia, the MoU hasn’t created a binding alternative method for dispute settlement. In February 2017 Kenya’s unlawful approach was rejected by the İnternational Court of Justice (ICJ) and the case was proceeded to be at the hand of the court.
Counsel for Somalia argued that the court has never delimited a boundary on the basis of Kenya’s approach, nor are Kenya’s arguments supported by decisions of other international courts or arbitral tribunals.
The public hearing was supposed to be held on between September 9 and 13, unfortunately, due to Kenya’s request, the hearing is been postponed until November 4, another step which reveals Kenya’s reluctance and its luck of confidence to the expected court veridiction. Kenya sought a one-year postponement of the case in order to install a new legal team. Contrary to that, Somalia rejected the postponement, a pressure factor which caused the ICJ to give shorter time than Kenya requested.
Stick diplomacy
To force an-out of court settlement, Kenya exercised tremendous pressure on Somalia. The cause of the reluctance and pressure is the reality which Kenya recognizes that, disputed maritime territory is owned by Somalia, so Kenya has a slim chance to win the contest. Somalia’s maritime claim complies with the “three-stage delimitation approach”, an approach considered in settling maritime delimitation disputes and the equidistance principle which defines boundaries as the midpoint between the states. These principles believed to shore up Somalia ‘s argument against Kenya’s claims.
When Kenya realized that, the Federal Government of Somalia won’t relinquish to apply an international arbitration for the case, it launched an offensive campaign. On May 2019, Kenya reimposed ban on unaccompanied luggage on aircraft from Somalia and insisted all planes should land at Wajir Airport for security checks, they accused Federal Government of Somalia of flouting air safety standards on travelers which was a baseless allegation.
The time of banning the direct flight between Nairobi and Mogadishu showcases how the decision is far away from any security concerns, especially in a time Somalia witnesses tangible security improvement.
The decision of cancelling the direct flights between the capital cities will badly affect the economic integration between the two countries, considering the mutual trade between the two countries and the remarkable presence of Somalis in Kenya with their massive investments which have been accumulating since 1992.
İn June, Kenya closed its border crossing with Somalia in Lamu citing for security concerns as they Kenyan officials declared.
Another escalation occurred, when high delegate of Somali officials including ministers and parliamentarians were denied entering to Kenya due to what the Kenyan officials described “lack of visas”. As a response, Somalia requested that conferences concerned Somalia to be held in other places rather than Nairobi, the city hosted most of the conferences organized by the international organizations and other stakeholders which gave certain leverage to Kenya.
Due to the security improvements in Somalia, there is no need to hold conferences concerns Somalia in Nairobi. The conferences should be held in Mogadishu where it will contribute to the growth of Somalia hotel service sector, hence it will generate opportunities for hundreds of Somali young people.
Recently Kenya’s parliament called president Uhuru Kenyatta to dispatch troops to the disputed maritime boarder to protect what they called Kenya’s territory.
Apparently, Kenya failed to tame the Federal Government of Somalia through intimidation. Somalia played diplomacy with full of confidence, in a side, it exercised coherent and calm diplomacy towards Kenya, on the other side, it didn’t give up moving in accordance with the international law and norms by seeking a verdict from the ICJ. This diplomatic wisdom gave Somalia extra scores over the Kenya. Kenya’s arrogant and egregious decisions raised a question mark on the bases of its foreign policy towards Somalia and the people who are running its foreign policy as long as this diplomatic hustle did not yield any result.
Security Complications in the Horn
During the last three decades, the Horn Africa has been in protracted social,political and economic uncertainty. Because of that, the region has been characterized by severe food shortages, large-scale displacements, piracy and multiple cross-border violence. Due to its geopolitical significance it became a centre of attraction for competing and contradicting powers from east and west, currently there are numerous foreign military bases in several places in the region. The war on Yemen since 2015 and then the rift of the Gulf countries has added extra fuel to the fire in the region.
Al-Shabaab represents an existential threat to the countries in the region and maritime shipment across the Indian ocean and the Red sea. The group which is based in Somalia has an aim to topple the federal government of Somalia and impose the sharia law based on their strict and narrow understanding.
In 2011, Kenya sent its troops to Somalia to fight against Al-Shabaab and to push the group away from its border. In 2012 Kenyan troops officially integrated into the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMİSOM). Although Kenyan Government was accused by numerous watchdog organizations of its involvement in charcoal trade activities with Al-Shabaab, it supported the Jubaland State and the Federal Government forces in their war against Al-Shabaab.
In response, Al-Shabaab launched nearly twenty attacks in Kenya, the deadliest attack occurred when Al-Shabaab stormed the Westgate Mall in Nairobi in 2013, the result was killing nearly 70 people. The attack and the subsequent attacks were a brutal blow against Kenya’s outstanding stability and its vibrant tourism sector. In January 2019 Al-Shabaab attacked the Dusit D2 hotel complex in Nairobi, killing at least 21 people.
Kenya lost nearly 300 people in the attacks orchestrated by Al-Shabaab, since Kenyan troops crossed the border with Somalia.
Although the Al-Shabaab’s dominance in Southern Somalia is weakened and their authority is limited in very small villages, due to the AMISOM and Somali Soldiers joint operations and intensified US drone attacks and special operations raids against Al-Shabaab since Donald Trump came to power in 2017, Al-Shabaab remains undefeated, the group has the capability to inflict damage by launching an organized attacks in Somalia as well as inside Kenya.
There is fear that, the maritime escalation between the two countries will be counterproductive for the stability of the region. The non-state actors and insurgent groups like al-Shabaab will get a chance to rejuvenate even stronger than before. Also, the dispute will have a negative ramification on the Kenyan troops’ presence in Somalia as part of AMISOM, currently there is significant growing resentment among the people living in the area where Kenyan troops are operating, the Al-Shabaab will invest this popular anti-Kenyan attitude. Thus, the feeling of patriotism will turn people against Kenya rather than going against Al-Shabaab movement.
Until now, Kenya’s deplomatic approach is not ushering a good intention and good neighbour, if so, this will lead to a stalemate, hence to further fragmentation.
Obstacle to Regional Integration
Since the selection of Mr. Abiy Ahmed as the prime minister of Ethiopia in early 2017, the hope for establishing a new era marked by peace and integration between the countries in the Horn Africa loomed more strongly than ever before. Mr. Abiy Ahmed has taken a courage internal and regional decisions among them his rapprochement to Ethiopia’s long-time enemy Eritrea and embarked a shuttled diplomacy to the capitals of the Horn Africa. He concluded a tripartite cooperation agreement between Ethiopia, Eritrea and Somalia and started to dismantle the bases of the problems entrenched in the region.
There has been a strong hope among the people in the Horn Africa, that the latest development will lead the region to a sustainable peace and meaningful integration. Cautiously, loosening trade regulations between the countries, allowing transborder trade and finding amicable settlements for the conflicts, will reflect from the life of the ordinary people and contributes to the economic wellbeing of the countries in the Horn Africa. This could be realized if there is trust between the countries which unfortunately don’t exist for the time been.
Currently, Somalia is one of the largest destinations for Kenya’s merchandize in the continent where Kenya exports to Somalia nearly $200 million of products each year, Somalia exports to Kenya far less than that amount, an obvious trade imbalance. Also, there a large vibrant Somali community who is having a viable business in Nairobi and other parts of the country, they contribute to the economy of Kenya by paying taxes and creating job opportunities for ordinary Kenyan citizens. There is remarkable cross-border trade mainly in cattle from Somalia to Kenya, this cross-border trade benefits for the people in both the two sides of the border.
As Kenya hosts nearly one million Somalis, there is a huge amount of money flowed to Kenya each year, that makes Somalis a significance hard currency source for Kenya.
The Kenyan provocation will be a stumbling block not only for the bilateral relations between the two countries but also for any regional integration. On the contrary, the Kenyan endeavors to sabotage the ICJ arbitration will certainly fuel the tension between the people of the two countries and will lead to further instability in the future.
As long as the Somali leadership doesn’t have the legitimacy and the ability to cede any a meter of the Somali territory, there is a short supply of any alternative settlement. Only, the International Court of Justice arbitration is the available and the acceptable choice for Somalis.
In 2002 the international community pressured Nigeria to accept the International Court of Justice rule which gave Cameroon the ownership of Bakassi, a strip of land with a plenty of oil deposit in the Gulf of Guinea. Like that it’s the responsibility of the international community to bolster the peaceful way out for the current conflict and prevent any further escalation which will destroy the relative stability yielded in recent years.
Kenya should be pushed to accept the ICJ arbitration as the only available solution and ensuring that the veridiction of the court is accepted. Kenya should realize that it’s short- and long-term interest relies on living beside a friendly Somalia not an antagonized Somalia and that depends on how Kenyans respect the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Somalia.
Abdiwali Sayid
Email: [email protected]
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