Special Report

There are unconfirmed reports that Ahmed Diriye “Abu Ubayda,” the emir of Al-Shabaab, has died of natural causes. According to these reports, Diriye (Dir) has been suffering from kidney illness. Al-Shabaab has denied his death.

Diriye replaced the late emir Ahmed Godane in 2014, when he was killed by an American targeted missile. Unlike his predecessor, Diriye had kept a low profile and stayed away from making official statements during his tenure. The radical group has suffered losses of many of its leaders, drastic reduction of its once-burgeoning membership, low interest among foreign jihadists, and the relentless American drone bombings.

Hussein Sheikh Ali Fidow (Murursade) is rumored to have replaced Diriye. He was the head of the Islamic Court of Daynile in the brief rule of the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) in 2006. Not much is known about him.

If the selection of Fidow is true, it means Mahad Karate (Habar Gidir), the head of the powerful Amniyaat intelligence branch, has once again been passed over for the top leadership position. After the death of Godane, there were wide speculations that Karate would be the new emir of the terror group. Normally, the emir of the radical group is selected by the Shura Council, the highest decision making body in the group.

It will be clear in the coming few days or weeks if Diriye indeed is dead. However, it is unlikely his demise will change the calculus of the intense war between Al-Shabaab and the Somali government.

WardheerNews