By Dylan GAMBA; AFP

More than two years after a peace deal ended the devastating war in Ethiopia’s Tigray region, a power struggle within the once-dominant TPLF party has sparked accusations of “treason” and a military coup.

Could these rising tensions lead to renewed violence so soon after one of the century’s deadliest conflicts that killed an estimated 600,000 people?

The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) ran the whole of Ethiopia for nearly three decades until Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, a non-Tigrayan, took power in 2018.

His takeover led to months of tension with the TPLF leadership, eventually leading Abiy to send troops to Tigray in November 2020, accusing their forces of attacking federal army camps.

This triggered two years of horrific war between Tigrayan rebels and government forces backed by militias and Eritrean troops, finally ended by a November 2022 peace treaty, known as the Pretoria Agreement.

A new interim administration was created in Tigray with TPLF veteran Getachew Reda in charge, though overseen by the federal government.

But divisions have emerged in recent months between Getachew and the TPLF’s leader, Debretsion Gebremichael.

Getachew faces criticism over delays in implementing the peace deal — particularly expelling Eritrean forces and returning the million people displaced by the war.

The Tigray Defence Forces (TDF) had previously stayed neutral in the Getachew-Debretsion dispute.

But in a letter made public on Tuesday, the “senior leadership of the Tigray armed forces” accused the interim administration of “sidelining the Tigrayan people’s national interest and engaging in treason”.

One foreign expert, who did not want to be named, estimated around 200 commanders supported the letter.

https://9b55606eb010c1ac257fd3131fa58a51.safeframe.googlesyndication.com/safeframe/1-0-40/html/container.html In it, they backed a TPLF party declaration from last year calling for Getachew to be removed as regional leader — a motion that was blocked by Abiy’s federal government.

Getachew has said the new letter is designed to “explicitly declare a coup d’etat and jeopardise the Pretoria Agreement”.

Kjetil Tronvoll, a conflict researcher at Norway’s Bjorknes University College, said the “political schism within the TPLF” and “federal government inaction to implement the Pretoria Agreement” were deepening tensions.

He told AFP the three main issues were “a power struggle, ideological differences and the control of resources,” particularly gold.

A security source who requested anonymity, told AFP “the pro-Debretsion faction is manoeuvring, but the security risk is limited — I do not see widespread violence breaking out, people are too weary for that.”

Tronvoll was less optimistic, warning the dispute has “the potential to turn violent”.

“The TDF earlier held the two factions in check and warned them not to escalate the conflict, but now it seems the political schism has entered the TDF,” he said.

The anonymous foreign expert said the situation was “extremely worrying”.

“Getachew’s side sees the military’s position as a declaration of war — and people are starting to withdraw money from banks and stockpile,” they said, adding that Prime Minister Abiy’s stance will likely prove decisive.

Jonah Wedekind, a researcher at Germany’s Arnold Bergstraesser Institute, said the situation could leave both sides weakened.

“It is unclear whether the TPLF still has sway over the majority of the population or to what extent the (interim administration) is seen as a legitimate representative of the Tigrayan people vis-a-vis the federal government,” he said.

“The political landscape in Tigray now seems fractured as never before.

Source: AFP