By Abdiqani Haji Abdi

There’s an old Somali saying: “If you see your neighbor being shaved, wet your beard.” Puntland saw the razor coming and ran. Jubaland followed suit. And now, South West State has taken one long look at Mogadishu’s failing leadership, sighed deeply, and said, “We’re out.”

If Villa Somalia is a sinking ship, the lifeboats would be full by now. Somaliland already jumped overboard years ago, declaring full independence (even if the world still pretends not to notice). Now, three out of the five remaining federal member states have abandoned Mogadishu’s rule. The only ones still tied to the FGS are Hirshabelle and Galmudug—though calling them “part of the government” is a stretch when Al-Shabaab is more present there than Somali forces.

The federation is breaking apart at a speed that would make even the most cynical observer raise an eyebrow. And the man at the center of it all? President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud—a leader more focused on crushing dissent than saving his crumbling government.

Mogadishu’s House of Cards: Wobbling and Ready to Collapse

One would think a president facing mass desertions would try a different strategy—perhaps reconciliation? Dialogue? A little charm offensive? But Hassan Sheikh is cut from a different cloth. His response to dissent is a predictable cocktail of air embargoes, financial strangulation, and good old-fashioned destabilization efforts.

It’s a pattern at this point:

✅ Jubaland rejected his rule, so he launched a military offensive. His forces suffered a humiliating defeat, and in just one day, they surrendered—to Kenyan authorities, no less. Somalia’s so-called “national army” had to be rescued by a neighboring country, making them the first invading force in history to run for the border before even finishing their packed lunch.

✅ Puntland refused to be part of his unconstitutional centralization project. They didn’t bother with dramatic speeches or back-and-forth negotiations; they simply said, “We’ll handle things ourselves,” and they did. Without Mogadishu’s interference, Puntland has become Somalia’s most stable region, governing itself successfully while keeping ISIL at bay.

✅ South West State has now followed suit, unwilling to continue under a regime that prioritizes control over cooperation. Their leadership knows what’s coming next—a travel blockade, economic suffocation, and attempts to divide their political ranks—but they have chosen to walk away regardless.

Meanwhile, in Mogadishu

While Hassan Sheikh is busy punishing federal states for daring to govern themselves, Al-Shabaab is running circles around his administration. The terror group recently pulled off twin attacks in Mogadishu, carefully timed to coincide with the arrival of Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.

• One bomb exploded near the heavily fortified airport, in what should be one of the safest areas of the capital.
• Militants stormed Balcad district, just 25 minutes drive from Mogadishu.

If the FGS cannot even secure the outskirts of the capital, what hope does it have of governing the rest of the country? Hassan Sheikh has spent two years promising an Al-Shabaab offensive, yet the terror group remains firmly entrenched in Hirshabelle and Galmudug. Those two regions are supposedly under federal government control, yet they remain battlegrounds where Al-Shabaab holds courts, collects taxes, and dictates daily life.

South West State’s Gamble: Sink or Swim

South West State knows what’s coming. Puntland and Jubaland have already been through it: economic blockades, political isolation, and relentless smear campaigns. But they have survived—and in many ways, they have thrived.

For years, South West State has been encircled by Al-Shabaab, its citizens living under the constant threat of attack. The roads are unsafe, meaning air travel is their only reliable means of movement. And yet, Mogadishu has chosen to weaponize civil aviation.

• Pregnant women and sick patients have been blocked from flying.
• Development aid is withheld while humanitarian efforts are stalled.
• But flights carrying miraa (khat) continue without disruption—because Hassan Sheikh’s family profits from it, making $4.5 per kilogram.

This is the kind of leadership that South West State is walking away from. They understand that staying within the FGS means accepting a slow death—politically, economically, and militarily. By breaking free, they take control of their own future, even if it means enduring short-term hardship.

The Bigger Picture: Somalia at a Junctions

With Somaliland already gone, and now three out of five federal member states rejecting Mogadishu’s rule, the question is no longer if Somalia will fragment, but how soon.

What remains under Mogadishu’s control is weak, unstable, and overrun by Al-Shabaab. The FGS exists on foreign aid and borrowed authority, but it lacks the legitimacy or strength to hold the country together.

Hassan Sheikh had a golden opportunity to unite Somalia. Instead, his obsession with consolidating power has driven it to the brink of disintegration.

So, what’s next?

Will Somalia remain a federation, or will Hassan Sheikh go down in history as the man who oversaw its complete collapse? Because at this rate, he might just end up being the last president of “Somalia” as we know it.

Abdiqani Haji Abdi
Email: Hajiabdi0128@gmail.com