By Ahmed Khalif
In the Somali tradition the sharing of responsibility with irresponsible person is compared to drawing water in a sieve or perforated device, a representative of the futility of a repetitive task that can never be completed. Interrogatively, in Somali, it is said “Ma wax aan wax kala ogayn baan wax la wadaagnaa mise gorof dabo-daloola ayaan badda ku dhurnaa.” – “Do we have to share a responsibility with ignoramus irresponsible person or do we have to draw water in a sieve?”
As a matter of fact, the whole Somali peace and reconciliation process can be described as a repetition of futile and never-ending task. Since 1991 close to two dozens of Reconciliation Conferences were convened for the competing parts/functions in the Somali civil war yet, to this day, no tangible thing is reconciled upon. In every ‘reconciliation conference’, the sponsoring group (regional governments; international communities; and organizations such UN, EU, AU, and IGAD) imposed their own pseudo solutions – their Pandora’s boxes – on the Somalis until they became bewildered, and they confused their national interest with the interest of everybody else: foe or friend; until the whole Somali reconciliation meetings lost their point and became scramble for Somalia – battlegrounds for foreign interests in Somalia but not for Somalia.
Somalis instead of themselves coming up with their own home-grown solutions for their problems they just disagree or agree whatever – doesn’t matter whom – is offered to them as a solution; they don’t know the whys and wherefores; they don’t know whose interest a specific point is to agree or disagree, individual, clan, national or foreign interest? The effect became a quarter of century at loggerheads. As a result the overall Somali peace and reconciliation progression timeline is a negative – backward progress; it is like taking five steps backward for every one step forward; and as regards the current government, regression seems to be the criterion for its election.
Among other things, the infamous Somali clan power-sharing mechanism known as The 4.5 Formula is an illustrative, case in point, in the repetition of futile task in Somali peace process. The 4.5 Formula is a systematic division which divides Somalis into four and half tribes: four main tribes and ‘the others’. It is a formula to divide and conquer Somalia. It was first introduced into the Somali politics in the Ethiopian government sponsored Somali Reconciliation Conference held in the town of Sodare, Ethiopia in 1997 – did you smell a rat? Doesn’t it smack of the classical divide and conquer strategy? It has, however, been implemented in Arta National Conference in Arta, Djibouti in 2000. Anything that divides Somalia, whether on clan lines such as the 4.5 formula or regional lines such as the tribal federalism, will be an advantage for its enemy.
This destructive 4.5 Formula has been around over a decade, paralyzing the government institutions, until the Transitional Federal Government of Somalia and various Somali stakeholders agreed to abandon it in the Somali National Consultative Constitutional Conference (known as Garowe Principles I and II) held in Garowe in December 2011 and February 2012 respectively. It is, however, now being dug up by the Federal Government that had signed off on its burial certificate at the wink of the ’international community’. Its resurrection now serves two objectives both of which are detrimental to Somalia’s existence: for Damul-jadiid (which means a new blood, probably drain from Somalia; the party of the president of the inept current government of Somalia which is seen by many Somalis as a sell-out saboteurs and a stalking horse for the Somalia’s enemies) it is a stratagem to stay in power; and for Somalia’s adversaries, it is a contentious bone – a hornet’s nest to stir up – to keep Somalia divided against itself.
The resurrection of the 4.5 formula will not only cripple the already lame regime in Mogadishu but it will also pave the way for the return of the Damul-jadiid regime, a foreign sponsored gang lead by de facto by Farah Abdulqadir (Sakiin) but nominally by the current inept President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud in power in the forthcoming 2016 election. Both the Damul-jadiid and the 4.5 Formula are part of what ails Somalia today and can’t be a solution now; the international community knows that but still sides with its proponents. Here arise these questions: why the so called ‘international community’ always sides with whoever plods on the most harmful bath for Somalia? Who are they? What their mission in Somalia? On whom do they rely for the information that they act upon? The answers of these questions require Somalis to reflect soberly outside of their tribal boxes/prisons.
In 1994 when the Clinton Administration withdrew American troops from Mogadishu and declared Somalia as a failed state, it also announced that it will, thenceforth, rely on Ethiopia and Kenya for its affairs in Somalia. What does that mean? Putting Ethiopia and Kenya in charge of Somalia perfectly embodies the African (Swahili) proverb that says: “There, where hyena is a judge, goats have no rights.” No right to live.
In the world that we live today, where dog eats dog, Somalis should realize that the best human help they can get from others cannot be better than the treatment that Man gives to his preferred best friend – the dog; yet God helps only those who help themselves. Somalis should stop deluding themselves into thinking that the international community is on their rescue or that their UN membership is their savior; and they should themselves grab the bull by its horns. Else if Somalia stays on its current trajectory, god forbids, the prediction is that its days are numbered and it will come to an end no later than 2020.
Somalis should dispel the vain notion that there will be an easy miracle solution for their ills; the survival of Somalia ultimately depends on how its people both inside and abroad – particularly those with intellectual capability – stand up for it.
As for power sharing Somalis should retrieve their power [Sovereignty] back into their hands before they share it. Somalia is standing on its last legs; and it can’t afford four more years wasted on the Damul-jadiid. The return of the Damul-jadiid in power will lead this country into the bottomless pit; and will render it into irrecoverable servitude. As a result the revival of the 4.5 Formula and the consequential return of the Damul-jadiid in power in 2016 is not only drawing water in a sieve but forsaking the national responsibility to a bunch of titular-happy irresponsible guys; it is an eternal damnation of this country that SHOULD be avoided at any cost.
Ahmed Khalif
Email:ahmedkhalif@yahoo.com