The terror attack on Nairobi’s Westgate Mall in September 2013 shone the spotlight on the dangers facing Al Shabaab, analysts said at a recent forum in Washington.

The killing of more than 60 people at the mall in Nairobi has “profoundly negative consequences” for a faction within Al Shabaab that is focused more on winning power in Somalia than on waging international jihad, said Bronwyn Bruton, deputy director of the Africa programme at a Washington think tank.

Al Shabaab currently exists as “an uneasy alliance” between a “clan-based” set of nationalist fighters and an Al Qaeda-aligned “transnational” grouping committed to hitting targets in Kenya and other countries, Ms Bruton added.

Militants with a broader agenda may have achieved their aims in attacking Westgate, but that atrocity had “catastrophic implications” for many Somalis — both at home and in Kenya, she said.

Kenyan authorities have increased their pressure in the mainly Somali Eastleigh district of Nairobi, while the US is again launching attacks inside Somalia, Ms Bruton noted.

Stig Jarle Hansen, the Norwegian author of the book Al-Shabaab in Somalia, said at the forum at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace that the situation within the group is “much more complex” than a struggle between nationalist and internationalist factions.

Mr Hansen agreed that Al Shabaab is experiencing “internal discord” which, he said, was due in part to Somalis’ reactions to attacks that have killed Muslims. The militants have also been weakened by loss of income following Kenyan troops’ takeover of the port of Kismayo, he observed.

At the same time, Al Shabaab retains the ability to “tax” local populations in rural parts of Somalia that it still controls, Mr Hansen said.

He also pointed to the group’s ability to recruit inside Kenya. “There is something growing there,” Mr Hansen said.

Kenyan forces’ takeover of Kismayo and parts of Jubaland has “greatly changed Somalis’ perception of Amisom,” Ms Bruton said. Because Kenya has been permitted to “essentially annex” border areas of Somalia, the African Union military mission in Somalia is increasingly viewed as an occupying force, she said, adding that Amisom cannot remain in Somalia indefinitely.

Al Shabaab is also not popular among ordinary Somalis, she said. The militants’ tactics have led many Somalis to support the government in Mogadishu.

Source: The East African