By WardheerNews

The mandate set forth by the Somali Federal Government as stipulated by the 2016 vision, to transition into democracy by the end of its term of office, is a distant, if not a phantom, goal. However, President Hassan Sh. Mohamoud has been adamant, about the elections taking place as scheduled. “There shall be no attempts for extension of mandate whatever the excuse,” said the president. “No one can bring to the nation the excuse that government assignments were never completed in time, prompting a call for extension of the leadership’s term.”

Despite the president’s public proclamations of the elections taking place, he wants according to sources very close to him, the extension and is currently operating on such basis. WardheerNews has learned that a high-ranking Somali government official has told a group of Somalis that there will be no elections in 2016.

The international community is in a dilemma: Is an extension better than no extension? What are the political pitfalls that could result from a coerced extension, such as leading the country to security meltdown? To Western donors, Somalia’s stability, not democratization, seems to be a apriority. A case in point is that the US embassy, based in Nairobi that is currently responsible for Somalia affairs, completed last summer (2014) a well-informed assessment. The hypothesis that was addressed in the report was this: What would happen in the event that the West coerces Hassan Sheikh to resign and vacate office?” The final recommendation was that President Hassan stay until he finishes his term. Such a conclusion was advised by the fear that removing Hassan although the report fully recognized and acquiesced with the complete disaster and failure of Hassan Sheikh’s leadership, could lead to more instability.

However, the President’s opponent’s and some of the emerging political parties, including prominent politicians and academics, perceive any extension of the current regime’s life as unconstitutional and a prelude to a meltdown of the achievements so far gained in security and political reintegration of the country.

By looking at past history, proponents of the extension persuasion see no problem to do so, because there are precedents for term extensions in Somalia’s political terrain. Heads of regional states, for example, Somaliland under the late Ibrahim Egal and Dahir Rayaale and Puntland’s Abdirahman Farole, as well as former transitional president, Sheikh Sharif Ahmed, had all extended their terms.

If Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud extends his term come 2016, the country could definitely be thrown back into a political quandary and uncertainly that could the flicker of hope that is expected to come after the elections. Moreover, both international donors and political operatives inside the country could retract their support of the democratization process.

As both the president and the legislators’ terms are expected to expire next year, the prospects of holding elections in 2016 are however, challenging. Some of these obstacles include the following:

1) The regional state governments that are supposed to be the basis for a viable federal government and part of the decision making process are not yet ready. So far, three regional states have been formed, two are on the way, and a decision has not yet been made on the status of Mogadishu, the capital, which house many Somalis from different regions. Only Puntland, so far, has a functioning regional government. As to the infantile Central regions, the culture of armed militia still rules supreme. All the regional states are expected to be fully functioning and federated before a general election can take place in 2016, a process that is unlikely to happen in a year and a half.

2) The provisional constitution is expected to undergo review and approval before the elections. The current administration appointed a constitutional commission to review the document last year; unfortunately, the commission has been anything but productive due to issues that are out of its control. Members of the commission, according to sources, have not been paid for three months. The problem is that the United Nations funds the commission through the Ministry of Justice, a process that can produce a bureaucratic delay or even misappropriation. Some members of the commission have left Mogadishu due to financial difficulties and the paucity of progress. In essence, there is no urgency on the part of the government to make the commission succeed.

3) Security is another major issue. The country is still at war with Al-Shabaab, which controls some parts of the country. As of putting this editorial on print, the high-profile Mogadishu “Central Hotel” frequented by high ranking government ministers and legislator is viciously attacked by the resilient Al Shabaab killing over 30 people including high ranking government officials. Moreover, the targeted killing of government officials, parliamentarians, and journalists have been an omnipresent occurrences. It’s evident that Al Shabaab  has the power  and means to disrupt events and spread fear.

Despite all these inherent challenges, in the last several years, Somalia has made some progress from an acute anarchy and violence to a semblance of normalcy. Mogadishu is experiencing an economic boom, amid the latest gruesome of terrorism carried out on February 20, 2015 at the Central Hotels, with close proximity to the Presidential palace.

Forfeiting the election would represent a setback and a backward slip to what could prove to be an autocratic rule by Hassan sheikh, his Dumel Jadid’s group and an extension of their incompetence. Therefore, WardheerNews maintains that any extension of the terms for both the president and the clan-based house of legislature is just not in the interest of the country.

WardheerNews
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