By Ali Haji Warsame
Somalia is again at a tipping point, and heightening tension and anxiety is on the air. After decades of political, social, and economic turmoil, the country is experiencing another showdown between the political elite and centres of power at both the central and regional levels.
The enormous security challenges, the bleak economic outlook, the diversion of international attention from the country to other global hotspots, and the general fatigue of donors to fund Somalia’s political struggles present a significant burden. This situation calls for unity among the people instead of further polarization and fragmentation.
On 14th may, the President of the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) and his aligned politicians, along with the Federal Member States (FMSs), announced the formation of a new political party composed of senior government officials from both the executive branch and the House of the People. This initiative aims to alleviate the suffocating political atmosphere. With just one year remaining in the government’s tenure, the task of guiding the country toward universal suffrage is steep and nearly impossible to achieve in a way that fosters national consensus and acceptable levels of agreement.
With Somaliland is already excluded from the federal system of Somalia, the alienation of both Puntland and Jubaland—regions that make up a significant portion of the country—will only worsen tensions and deepen the political divide. It is essential to recognize that both Puntland and Jubaland share some responsibility for the current situation but the timing of these developments is critical, and the stakes have never been higher.
Moreover, reverting to the last indirect election, which tilted the balance of power toward the heads of the FMSs, is simply not an option. What transpired in 2022 was both unacceptable and unsustainable. The true indirect elections of 2012 and 2017 were both seen as more legitimate and acceptable.
The challenge lies in maintaining a proper balance between the unconstitutional power gaps of the regional states and the unattainable one-person, one-vote system without a legal, political, and social framework. This troubling trend could jeopardise the hard-earned gains made over the past 25 years. Neither of these options is widely accepted or practically agreeable.
Many political commentators advocate for a third option, which involves completing local government council elections across all possible areas and regions. This approach could allow the country to avoid proceeding directly to national-level elections, which should be based on a parliamentary system and the current fragile power-sharing framework.
By separating local government council elections from elections for national institutions, the remaining tenure of this government could better serve the nation-building process and help safeguard the gains that have been made. The political elite should not push this fragile country to its limits. Somalia remains under Chapter VII of the UN Charter and depends on the international community for its survival. Without timely intervention, the country may not endure.
As of 2023, the country’s GDP was estimated at $11 billion, equivalent to one-third of Nairobi’s GDP. During the same period, Somalia exported roughly $800 million while importing $7.4 billion. The only economic relief has come from steady remittances from the diaspora, amounting to about $2 billion annually. However, these are dwindling due to the sluggish global economic growth and uncertainty.
It is worth noting that the world is watching Somalia. The recent Senate hearing and testimony on Africa were both timely and interesting. The priorities of U.S. foreign policy are changing, and they don’t seem coherent, except for the focus on combating China. Both J. Meservey and Honorable Michelle Gavin confirmed that the nation-building efforts in Somalia are both off-track and unsustainable. It is no longer acceptable to ignore these facts, especially as other conflicts, such as those in Palestine, the Pakistan-India war over Kashmir, and the crisis in Bab al-Mandeb and the Red Sea, are drawing much increasing attention.
Unless we live in a parallel universe, it is detrimental for us to ignore what is happening around us. Leadership that is oblivious to the surrounding challenges is destined to fail. Somalia, today, cannot afford to overlook these developments for its own survival.
For Somalia to survive, we have to go back to the drawing board of our governance anew and without open and honest dialogue among the country’s political elite, represented by the FGS, FMSs, and other stakeholders, the survival and sustainability of Somalia will be in jeopardy—a prospect that would not be in anyone’s interest. Now is the time to act for the sake of both God and country. It was a now or never.
Ali Haji Warsame MA; MBA, CPA
Email: ali.warsame@hiilinstitute.org
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Ali is the executive director of Hiil Institute and former Puntland Minister of Education.
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