By Osman Hassan
So much is happening in the Horn of Africa around the one-clan secessionist enclave calling itself Somaliland. The trio – Somalia, Ethiopia and Eretria – hitherto arch-enemies for centuries or decades, as the case may be, have reconciled and agreed in principle to join hands in the interest of peace and development for the sake of their peoples and form a union possibly modelled on the European Union.
The wind of change blowing across countries in the Horn is also sweeping within countries. Puntland, for too long a thorn in the flesh of Somalia is now agreeable to the pre-eminence of the federal government. That happened when it got rid of its former leader, Abdiweli Gaas, the leading unscrupulous rogue destabilizing Somalia. Puntland’s redemption follows in the footsteps of other federal States who similarly dumped their treacherous leaders and now accept their subordination to the federal government. And it is only a matter of time before the remaining destabilizer, Ahmed Madoobe of Jubaland, joins the ranks of his unseated cohorts. Even the Somali Region under Ethiopian rule is openly claiming its Somali identities and gravitating towards integration with its Somali roots. In this new paradigm, secession would be consigned to the dustbin of history.
While the trend all around in The Horn is towards unity and integration, the secessionist enclave is the odd one out turning its back on these history-making developments. Even after it has been ditched by its former protégés, like Ethiopia and lately shunned by the UAE in the pursuit of realpolitik, the enclave remains hooked to dogmatic self-righteous mindset that it will always triumph over all its adversities and ultimately realize its aspiration of an independent nationhood.
The enclave’s stand could be perceived delusional or rational depending on whose perspective one takes. For the rest of Somalia and the wider world, the secession of a breakaway one-clan enclave is ultimately doomed when it is opposed by the other clans/regions in what they call Somaliland, above all the SSC regions, as well as Puntland, and no less by the federal government.
Seen from their perspective, the enclave would challenge these assertions as spurious. Taking them one by one, and starting with successive governments in Mogadishu since the fall of the regime of Mohamed Siyad Barre, they will argue that none of these governments, nor for that matter their population in Southern Somalia, have seriously opposed their secession in words and deeds and often look the other way.
Some go further and contend that the very notions of a Somalia nation and its unity have few adherents among the disparate clans in southern Somalia. Otherwise, how does one explain, they argue, that whereas they were able to form a “state” (“Somaliland”), a functioning government and a “united” people from day one after the collapse of the Somalia State in 1991, none of that has taken root or in sight in the South? What this amounts to, they stress, is that their secession is officially opposed at Villa Somalia for public consumption but beyond that unopposed.
As for the international community’s support for Somalia’s unity and territorial integrity, they counter that this is all lip service and point out to the other side of the coin. It is national interest and realpolitik that trumps adherence to UN resolutions on Somalia calling for its unity. After so many years, as “Somaliland” lasts as a de facto independent country, sooner or later one country, weighing up the pros and cons, could recognize it. And when such breakthrough happens, it could, they reckon, set off a chain reaction in which other countries follow suit. On this basis, they see time is on their side. Delusional or prescient?
When it comes to Puntland, none of its leaders since it was established have cared a hoot about the defence of the SSC regions or their liberation once occupied notwithstanding the fact that they are part of Puntland as per the August 1998 clan/regional concord. The enclave realised this fact long before the SSC people did. As it is, What merely interests Puntland is milking these regions for the economic and diplomatic benefits they confer without incurring any cost. Only once did it look as if it will challenge Somaliland after it captured Tukaraq when it mobilized thousands of its own forces and clan militias.
As it turned out, Puntland’s warlike reaction to the capture of Tukaraq was prompted merely by the need to defend Garawe after some hotheads in the secessionists’ parliament threatened to “overrun” it if Puntland challenges their capture of Tukaraq. But once it was given assurances to the contrary by IGAD and members of Somalia’s key international partners that the enclave’s militia would not go beyond Tukaraq, that paid to rest Puntland’s much trumpeted liberation of Tukaraq. There is even less likelihood that the new leader of Puntland, Said Abdullahi Deni, an affable risk-averse business man, will rush in where his predecessors feared to tread. The enclave is therefore right that they have nothing to fear from Puntland either.
Where the enclave has been untypically clear-sighted from the outset is the realisation that their aspiration for an independent recognized “Somaliland” would remain a dream, a non-starter, unless they have the SSC regions and their clans (and Awdal) on board. Aware that they will not get them willingly, they had to invade and occupy Lascanod, the capital of Sool, without meeting resistance neither from the defending Puntland forces nor from the local Sool population except initial street demonstrations in the city.
In pursuit of their aspirations, what is undeniable is the spectacular and easy success the one-clan secessionist Somali clan (calling itself Somaliland), not so much to occupy fellow clans (for they had numerically superior forces and resources), but to subvert the soul of Sool, hitherto priding itself as the cradle of the Darkish resistance to British colonial rule for 21 years, such that it succumbed so quickly under no undue pressure, and turn a blind eye to, if not tolerate, the heretical gospel of a union phobia renegade clan.
The enclave’s successful hold on Sool and Sanaag, combined with Puntland and the federal government’s apparent indifference to the liberation of the occupied SSC regions in defence of the union, have rightly or wrongly sent a message to the enclave to believe that nothing stands in the way of their recognition. They may be right about Puntland and Mogadishu but wrong to believe that Sool and Sanaag will be theirs forever. That is a delusion pure and simple.
Admittedly, the occupation and their replication in Sool of the infamous British colonial practices of divide and rule, pitting one sub-clan in Sool against another, have paid off for now. But the current prevailing picture in Sool, as in the wider occupied SSC regions, is bound to change. Just as the British lost their empire when they run out of tricks and the people in every country woke up and united against them, and just as the people of Buuhoodle region have been able to keep the enclave at bay thanks to their unity, so similarly the people of Sool and Sanaag are bound to unite sooner or later, against their occupier when they get the right leadership. Henceforth, they will rely on themselves as they learned the hard way that counting vainly on Puntland or Mogadishu hindered rather than helped their struggle.
And for the last word, history reminds us that while the British survived as a nation the loss of their Empire, the secessionist enclave will not survive their loss of Sool and Sanaag. When art thou awakening the Republic of Riyo?
Osman Hassan
Email: [email protected]
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Osman Hassan is a seasoned journalist and a former UN staff member. Mr Hassan is also a regular contributor to WardheerNews.
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