Events in the southern Somali port city ofKismayu are on a fast-moving escalator as violence intensifies and armed factions mobilise and adopt offensive postures.

Two days of deadly violence between the Ras Kamboni Brigade (RKB) and militiamen loyal to Iftin Basto, one of the many claimants to the contested Jubaland presidency, has left scores dead and dozens wounded, mainly civilians.

The KDF/AMISOM troops in Kismayu are now faced with the unwelcome prospect, not to say additional strain, of policing their allies, over and above the routine military task of keeping up the pressure on Al-Shabaab and ensuring the militant group does not stage a come-back.

The violence was predictable and is a result of four weeks of political stalemate and mediation stasis which has given elements wedded to a violent solution the signal to act.

Equally, the reckless posturing, brinkmanship and bellicose rhetoric on all sides has simply served to dangerously inflame passions and polarise opinion.

There is a real danger the situation in Kismayu could spiral out of control and the violence spread to the rest of the Juba Valley, unless urgent steps are taken to disengage the combatants and initiate a credible mediation to seek a peaceful political solution.

Puntland’s President Abdirahman Farole has been in Nairobi for over seven days in an attempt to mediate, but he is seen as being too partisan by many in the political establishment in Mogadishu, and consequently he is unlikely to become acceptable as a serious mediator.

Even more disconcerting, there is credible evidence that Al-Shabaab is discreetly and cleverly exploiting inter-clan tensions in Gedo and Juba to foment further instability in Kismayu and elsewhere in the region.

It is easy to be pessimistic, but a compromise solution is achievable, if only all the sides are willing to change tack.

And below are a few practical steps and recommendations that could positively impact on the situation and which all the parties must consider seriously:

• All sides must immediately stop mutually hostile propaganda which simply fuels the crisis and inhibits progress on the search for a solution;
• AMISOM must take urgent steps on the ground to disengage the warring sides, prevent the hostilities from escalating further and protect civilians;
• IGAD, the African Union, the United Nations, and other key partners of Somalia need to urgently identify and put together a credible mediation team;
• The Somali Government has maintained a consistent message on Jubaland framed around constitutionalism and sovereignty. However, that message has not gone down well in Juba and it must now be recast so as to allow for a pragmatic political solution;
• An urgent task force must be set up to discuss the disharmony of views regarding which federal model is best-suited for Somalia – i.e. top-down federalisation or bottom-up federalism – and its recommendations put before the proposed national conference in Mogadishu.

Mr Abdi descibes himself as an independent Horn of Africa analyst

Source: Daily Nation