The term of the current Somalia government ends in September, but will the presidential and parliamentary elections be held by August 20 as announced? The candidates are ready, the donors have conditions but the process is mired in unpreparedness. TEA GRAPHIC | NATION MEDIA GROUP
By FRED OLUOCH
The term of the current Somalia government ends in September, but will the presidential and parliamentary elections be held by August 20 as announced?
President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud had promised that his government will hold elections by August 20 after sustained pressure from donor and development partners such as the United Nations, who have made it clear that they will not accept an extension of his term.
Whether it was a knee-jerk reaction or just an optimistic outlook, one cannot tell as yet. All indications are that it will not happen, given the general state of unpreparedness surrounding the process.
For one, the date of the elections is yet to be fixed. The Senate, which is supposed to participate in the new electoral mode — which shifts electors of Members of Parliament from purely clan elders to a select team for electors from each of the five federal units — is yet to be constituted, while the government has not given the donors, who are expected to bankroll the elections, the electoral budget.
The National Leadership Forum, made up of the president, the prime minister, leaders of federal regions and clan elders — met in Mogadishu from August 2-4 to receive a new election timetable from the new Electoral Commission, which was appointed on June 15, and review the budget for elections.
Somalia experts say that given the many preparatory measures that are required for credible electioneering, the polls could be delayed by several weeks, if not months.
For example, according to Abdirahman Omar Osman, a former presidential spokesperson, though there is little time left before the proposed date, the country is yet to decide on how to elect members of the Senate.
“It would require at least six months to implement the new electoral system and organise security around elections if the process is to be inclusive and representative,” said Mr Osman.
However, Somalia ambassador to Kenya Gamal Hassan told The EastAfrican that the elections will be held no later than September.
4.5 clan system
Unlike in 2012, when 135 clan elders selected 275 MPs—who elected the president—this time the voting will include 50 electors from each of the five federal units, who will elect the 275 MPs. The MPs, together with members of the Senate, will then elect the president. There will be a total of 14,000 people voting.
The new election model combines the traditional 4.5 clan system (four major clans plus a cluster of five small clans) and the participation of the federal units and the Senate. In addition, 30 per cent of the parliamentary seats have been preserved for women.
The National Consultative Forum had settled on this model after President Mohamud announced that his government could not deliver on the promise of universal suffrage — one person, one vote — that could have taken Somalia out of the clan-based elections.
The 4.5 clan system has been criticised for being susceptible to manipulation and inter-clan divisions that have seen a high turnover of prime ministers.
The five regions that will participate in electing the president are Puntland, Jubbaland, Galmudug, Interim South West Administration and Central Shabelle. The 4.5 formula will mainly involve those in Mogadishu.
Under Somalia’s Federal Charter, political power is dominated by four major clans: Darod, Dir, Hawiye and Isaaq, who are predominantly found in the breakaway Somaliland. In the current parliament, one- third of the seats are reserved for representatives of the clans in Somaliland.
UN special envoy to Somalia Michael Keating wrote on the UN official site that the global body has been pushing for dialogue among politicians, civil society and women and youth groups to come up with a formulae acceptable to all.
“The 2016 elections are already looking significantly different from 2012. The voting is going to take place around the country in six or seven locations, so there is going to be a real sense of much more local ownership. There are going to be ballot boxes, there will be a mechanism for verifying whether the process is being conducted, there’ll be secret voting. So it’s going to have aspects that simply did not exist in 2012,” he said.
Insecurity
However, myriad challenges could still interfere with the elections, starting with the increased insecurity in Mogadishu. Unlike in the run-up to the last elections, Al Shabaab has increased its attacks in Mogadishu, vowing to ensure elections are not held.
They have also attacked the bases of Kenyan, Ugandan, Ethiopia and Burundi soldiers who are serving under African Union Mission in Somalia (Amisom).
In a recent interview with The EastAfrican, head of Amisom Fransisco Madeira said the African peacekeepers are making special arrangements for security during elections even with the militants splitting into small groups and mingling with civilians.
Amisom suffered a serious setback at the beginning of the year when the European Union slashed 20 per cent from its $200 million annual funding, prompting threats by key troop-providers like Kenya and Uganda to withdraw.
National political dialogue to reconcile the clans, which was a key mandate of the current government when it was elected in 2012, is yet to take place.
Also, the Senate is yet to be constituted while Central Shabelle and Hiran, which are supposed to constitute the fifth region, are still feuding over its name and headquarters.
There are presidential candidates doubting the neutrality of the Electoral Commission of Somalia that was appointed by President Mohamud on June 15.
Mohamed Abdirizak, a former employee of UNDP in Nairobi, argues that there is a conflict of interest, rendering the president’s unilateral decision a suspicious action that may unduly influence the electoral process.
Despite the many new features in the electoral system, the clan factor will still play a key role in the elections. Besides clans, and with the history of Somalia elections, winners must have the support of influential Islamic groups, who are not necessarily radicalised like Al Shabaab but have influence and resources.
Economy in tatters
The United Nations and a few donors are going to fund the lections given that the Somalia government is entirely dependent on donors, with a struggling economy already weighed down by a $5.3 billion external debt.
The private sector is slowly picking up and leading in job creation, but the government, without a system of collecting taxes, can only count on $250 million a year that is generated from the port.
Source: The East African
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