By Buraale Xiniin

Strategic alliances and partnerships among nations, whether in the areas of defense, security, or economic cooperation are an essential pillar of international relations. They enable countries to advance their national interests, strengthen their security, expand economic opportunities, and address shared regional and global challenges more effectively.

However, alliances should never be pursued for their own sake. They must be grounded in a clear national strategy and reflect the long-term interests, sovereignty, and aspirations of the nation seeking such a partnership. A successful alliance is one that delivers mutual benefit, preserves national independence, and contributes to sustainable security, economic development, and political stability rather than creating dependency or compromising strategic national interests.

While neighbouring nations prioritize systemic economic modernization, infrastructure integration, and sustainable domestic growth, the Federal Government of Somalia remains trapped in an outdated paradigm of performance-based sovereignty. Rather than building the internal institutional mechanisms necessary to project authority, Mogadishu’s political class has opted for a policy of outsourced defence.

The recent flurry of security pacts signed with regional powers, namely Türkiye and Egypt, is presented by state media as a masterclass in safeguarding territorial integrity. However, an objective geopolitical analysis reveals a more sobering reality: these treaties function primarily as theatrical substitute measures, designed to mask deep-seated domestic governance failures while external actors advance their own strategic agendas in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.    

A- The Illusory Shield: The Geopolitical Reality of Outsourced Defence

Mogadishu’s enthusiastic diplomatic engagements with Cairo and Ankara must be scrutinized through the lens of political realism.

 The Egyptian Aligned Interest: For Egypt, the defence pact signed with Somalia is not merely an altruistic defence of Somali borders. It is a tactical repositioning within the broader Nile Basin hydro-politics, establishing a forward military presence to counter Ethiopian influence.

The Turkish Maritime Footprint: For Türkiye, the naval and defence cooperation agreements secure a highly coveted geopolitical foothold in the Indian Ocean, anchoring Ankara’s maritime power-projection ambitions.

The Strategic Mismatch: While these external powers deploy armored units, fighter jets, and naval assets to Mogadishu, the core threats to Somali statehood are fundamentally domestic, asymmetric, and institutional.

The reliance on foreign militaries to guarantee basic territorial integrity highlights a profound paradox. If a state’s borders are maintained solely by foreign bayonets, the state itself remains a legal fiction. True sovereignty cannot be rented; it must be built through internal cohesion, robust institutions, and an economy capable of self-sustenance.

B- The Reality in the North: The Berbera Enclave and Strategic Shifts

While the federal administration in Mogadishu focuses on high-profile diplomatic summits, tangible geopolitical realignments are taking place on the ground. The most striking example is the rapid infrastructural development at the Berbera International Airport and seaport.

Recent investigative reports and satellite imagery analysed by international outlets, including Le Monde, point to the discreet construction of a highly sophisticated military installation in Berbera, facilitated by the United Arab Emirates. This facility is reportedly designed to serve as a strategic operational outpost for the UAE and its international allies, including the United States and Israel, positioned directly opposite the volatile Yemeni coast.

The establishment of this base represents a significant shift. The historical precedent of Israeli colonial-style settler mind suggests that once Israel military power establishes a highly fortified, strategically vital outpost, dismantling that presence becomes exceptionally difficult for centuries to come (look at Guantanamo Bay, in Cuba).

By allowing the commercialisation of its coastline, the Somali political apparatus, both at the federal level and within regional administrations, risks permanently surrendering control of its maritime security to external actors.

C- Domestic Realities: Elite Enrichment vs. Institutional Decay

The contrast between the wealth of the political elite and the daily struggles of the population is stark. Across Somalia, from Puntland and Jubaland to Somaliland and the southern regions, millions of citizens face severe economic instability, food insecurity, and a lack of basic public services. Yet, senior political figures across various administrations continue to acquire high-value assets and real estate in the Gulf states, Europe, and North America.

This disconnect is driven by several key factors:

 1. The Rentier Political Economy: The Somali state apparatus functions largely on external rents, including international aid, security assistance grants, and licensing fees. Because the ruling class is not dependent on domestic taxation, they have little structural incentive to remain accountable to the citizenry.

 2. The Fragmented Federal Model: The decentralized system has evolved into a collection of semi-autonomous regional entities. Leaders within these regional administrations often operate with minimal federal oversight, treating local resources and port revenues as personal or sub-clan assets.

 3. The weaponization of Clan Divisions: The political class skilfully utilizes traditional clan dynamics to prevent the formation of unified, cross-regional social movements. By framing every political dispute as a zero-sum conflict between rival clans, politicians successfully shield themselves from collective accountability.

Conclusion: The Need for Institutional Reform.

The current trajectory of the Somali state is unsustainable. Relying on outsourced defence pacts while turning a blind eye to domestic economic challenges is a recipe for long-term instability.

For Somalia to achieve true sovereignty and protect its territorial integrity, its leadership must pivot away from the performance-based diplomacy of international photo opportunities. Instead, they must focus on the difficult work of internal state-building: establishing transparent financial institutions, building a professional and unified national defence force, and fostering a political culture that prioritises public service over personal gain. Until these structural reforms are enacted, the nation will remain a pawn in the geopolitical rivalries of the Red Sea basin.

Buraale Xiniin
Email: eastafridac@gmail.com
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