By Abdullahi A Nor

Somalia’s ambition to implement a “One Person, One Vote” (1P1V) electoral system faces insurmountable challenges under President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s administration. While Somaliland has successfully embraced a democratic model, Southern Somalia’s ongoing political, security, and governance crises have rendered the vision of inclusive democracy unattainable for the foreseeable future.

Despite the federal government’s rhetoric about transitioning toward universal suffrage, the current political environment reflects conflict, division, distrust, and a lack of foundational prerequisites necessary for a credible electoral process. The comparison between Somaliland’s achievements and the south of Somalia’s stagnation highlights not only the blunt differences in governance but also the profound obstacles Somalia must overcome to avoid political disintegration.

Equally alarming is the complete erosion of the legislative branch’s independence, which should act as a vital check on executive overreach. Instead, Somalia’s current parliament has become an extension of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s office, rubber-stamping every agenda item presented without scrutiny, debate, or even a quorum. This shocking abdication of responsibility has reduced the legislature to little more than a ceremonial body, utterly failing its mandate to represent the people or uphold democratic principles.

Even more astonishing is the parliament’s practice of approving agreements and bills without seeing their text—a grotesque deviation from any recognized standard of parliamentary procedure. No legislative body in the world, no matter how dysfunctional, has stooped to this level of negligence. This reckless behavior undermines Somalia’s fragile governance framework, rendering the checks and balances essential for accountability and transparency nonexistent.

This dysfunctional parliament exemplifies the broader decay of state institutions under the current administration, where the executive wields unchecked power, erodes democratic norms, and fuels public mistrust in the government’s legitimacy.

If not addressed urgently by the international community that invested so much for so long, this trend will only deepen Somalia’s governance crisis, isolating the central government further from the people it claims to serve and ultimately its fallout could open floodgates for refugees and embolden Al-Shabaab terrorists, posing a grave threat to the stability of the Horn of Africa. Immediate action is essential to reverse this alarming trend and restore functional governance.

Adding to the already dire governance crisis is the complete absence of a functioning, independent judiciary in Somalia. There is no Constitutional Court to mediate disputes or uphold justice for competing political parties—a critical pillar for any credible one-person, one-vote (1P1V) system. Without an impartial judiciary, there can be no fair resolution of constitutional or electoral disputes, leaving the rule of law in tatters.

The only court that commands public trust is the Military Court, chaired by General Shuute, which has taken on responsibilities far beyond its intended scope. While this court has earned respect for its efficiency, its jurisdiction is limited and cannot replace the essential role of an independent civilian judiciary.

Without a credible and impartial judiciary, any attempt at 1P1V will be inherently flawed, further undermining the legitimacy of the electoral process and exacerbating the political instability that continues to plague Somalia.

Somalia’s federal system is crumbling under the weight of incessant clan warfare, government dysfunction, and rising discontent among its Federal Member States (FMS). While President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud pushes for “One Person, One Vote” (1P1V), the reality on the ground paints a picture of chaos, isolation, and disillusionment.

Federal Member States in Disarray

The situation, I am highlighting is a clear reflection of the severe limitations that the current political and security environment imposes on governance and campaigning efforts. If the president himself cannot travel on road to neighboring regions like Merca Jilib or Jowhar due to security concerns of the control of Al-Shabaab over critical areas where they collect taxes and sakawat, it raises a fundamental question about how political campaigns can effectively reach the people in such regions.

Campaigning requires access to voters, and when movement is restricted by insecurity related to Al Shabab, it becomes nearly impossible for political figures, including party campaigners, to directly engage with the electorate in those areas. Thus, the inability to travel by land and reliance on air travel further complicates things, especially since air access might be limited or controlled by various factions or security forces, making it difficult to communicate the party’s message and rally support in these key regions.

This lack of mobility due to security highlights not only the challenge of conducting a free and fair election but also the growing disconnects between the central government and local populations, further corroding trust in the federal system. It underscores the urgency of resolving these security concerns related to Al Shabab and clan militias and fostering a political environment in which all regions are not only accessible by road but are treated as integral to the democratic process.

Moreover, Puntland and Jubaland have severed ties with the Federal Government, further shrinking the territories where elections could feasibly be conducted, if any were to take place.

Hirshabelle: A Region Torn Apart

Hirshabelle’s fragmentation into Hiiraan and Jowhar, each with self-declared leaders, reflects the deep governance and security challenges facing the region. This division has led to unchecked lawlessness and inter clan warfare further undermining the federal structure. The inability of President Hassan Sheikh to travel by road even short distances—such as the 90 km stretch from Mogadishu to Jowhar—illustrates the severity of the security crisis. Al-Shabaab’s stronghold on critical routes has rendered ground travel perilous, forcing reliance on air transport, which is neither practical nor universally accessible.

This situation exposes the broader issue of political inaccessibility in areas under Al-Shabaab control. Political campaigns, which depend on direct voter engagement, are severely hampered in these regions. Leaders and candidates cannot meet communities, understand local concerns, or mobilize support, leaving large populations disconnected from the democratic process.

Moreover, the insecurity perpetuates a growing disconnect between the central government and regional populations. It diminishes trust in the federal system, as the government appears incapable of addressing basic security needs or fostering inclusive governance. The lack of access to regions such as Baletweyn and Jowhar underscores the urgent need for a comprehensive approach to dismantle Al-Shabaab’s influence and stabilize the regions. Without such measures in place, the possibility of conducting free, fair, and inclusive elections in all the Federal Member States except of course Puntland is utterly impossible, further deepening Somalia’s political crisis.

Galmudug: Al Shabab and Perpetual Clan Wars

Galmudug remains mired in relentless Al Shabab insurgency and inter-clan warfare, perpetuating a cycle of violence that obstructs every effort at reconciliation and stability. This persistent conflict has left the region deeply fractured, with no functional governance to address the needs of its people. The resulting vacuum not only exacerbates instability but also renders the prospect of meaningful political campaigns nearly impossible.

In areas under their control, Al-Shabaab enforces its own rule, collects taxes, and imposes strict regulations, leaving communities isolated and fearful. This domination makes it nearly impossible for political candidates or parties to access voters, as any movement is fraught with the risk of ambushes, checkpoints, or attacks.

Read more: Somalia’s Struggle for “One Person, One Vote” Amidst Political

Abdullahi Ahmed Nor
Email: abdulahinor231@gmail.com