By Ali H. Abdulla

Receding Hope

Hope for Somalia emerging from its prolonged failed-state status seems to be receding . The country, where thousands of vulnerable people perish for lack of water and recurring famine, might be sliding once again towards a never-ending cycle of violence and disintegration.

This perceived lack of hope has forced thousands of young Somalis to flee their country only to end up in the bellies of sharks and along the beaches of foreign lands as decomposed bodies spewed by the sea. The pictures of dozens of young bloated Somali corpses littering Italian and Yemeni shores no longer shocks and have become an ordinary phenomenon that barely makes it to the headline news.

Some of these would-be immigrants survive, only to end up in concentration camps manned by ruthless gangs who demand thousands of dollars for their release. Some make it to Europe, only to discover that the paradise they imagined and risked their lives for was a disappointment at best.

Despite the marked improvement in the security of the capital city Mogadishu, all is not well. Targeted assassinations by elusive elements continue to be problematic for returning professionals and businessmen. Several lawmakers have already lost their lives and the rest of them live in fear of being next on the list. Another letdown for many Diaspora returnees remains the difficulty of reclaiming their properties from illegal squatters who at times resort to violence to scare the legitimate owners.

The AMISOM Factor

The forces hired by the International community to stabilize Somalia have found it to be a cash cow that can be milked for years to come. They have now become another source of misery and instability for Somalia. There are serious allegations leveled against them for raping vulnerable Somali women in refugee camps under their protection; for being a possible source of Ebola for a county that lacks the most basic rudimentary healthcare system; and for turning a blind eye to the illegal charcoal and weapons traded in areas under their jurisdiction.

Many Somalis look upon the AMISOM forces as a tool to deprive them of their legendary pride and dignity, and to weaken their Arab and Islamic ties. This feeling may be justified by the fact that the AMISOM forces have been largely cherry-picked from African countries that have nothing in common with the Somali people when it comes to matters of faith or culture. Egypt, Sudan and other Muslim countries have been deliberately excluded. Somalis will no doubt be alarmed and haunted by the thousands of illegitimate Africans to be left in their midst.

Potential conflict in the North Central/North Western Regions

A supposedly calm enclave that has so far enjoyed a semblance of calm and stability risks inviting the instability and misery of the Southern regions if the current political squabble between a geriatric ruler, who is intent on extending his rule, and former rebel commanders, who are intent on wrestling power from him, deteriorates into armed conflict. One of the most vocal former rebel commanders, who call themselves ‘the Mujahidin”, threatened on public television that bullets would start flying in Berbera, Burao and Hargesisa at the same time if elections were not held on time. The inter-clan animosity between the three major clans in the separatist enclave of Somaliland runs deep and had already led to a damaging civil war in the early 1990s. The start of another civil war is a reality despite the attempts of the enclave leaders to portray a democratic façade meant to attract foreign aid and International support for their separatist agenda.

Another potential source of instability and armed conflict in this area comes from the continued and illegal occupation by Somaliland of the capital city of a newly established Federal State known as the Khatumo State Of Somalia, which is based on parts of the old 18 regions of Somalia viz. Sool, Sanaag and Ayn. Khatumo supporters based their Federal State on Article 48 of the Somali Constitution and on articles 19 and 20 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights:

Article 19 of the declaration states that:  “Everyone has the right to freedom of opinion and expression; this right includes freedom to hold opinions without interference and to seek, receive and impart information and ideas through any media and regardless of frontiers”.

Article 20 of the declaration states that: (1) Everyone has the right to freedom of peaceful assembly and association. (2) No one may be compelled to belong to an association.

Since the world recognizes one united Somalia and Somaliland is not a legal entity that has formally separated from Somalia through internationally supervised referendum, its attempts to use force to stop Khatumo adherents from holding their conference in Taleh and selecting their leaders is a criminal act that violates the Somali Constitution and articles 19 and 20 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. It goes without saying that the Khatumo people cannot be railroaded into a separatist enclave based on defunct colonial borders against their wish.

The leaders of the Somaliland administration repeatedly ignored the calls of the international community to respect the wishes of the Khatumo people and defiantly employed heavy weapons to disrupt the Khatumo conference on more than one occasion. Such behavior has galvanized the peaceful people of Khatumo to seriously consider taking up arms in order to defend their God given Human Rights. Such a potential conflict will worsen the suffering of the Somali people.

Any conflict in this area can easily be exploited by the extremist Al-Shabab movement that is keen on gaining a foothold in the area after being squeezed out from their strongholds in the South. Although their leader was killed recently, he still has a lot of sympathizers in the form of sleeping cells in major cities in the North such as Hargeisa and Burao. There are even serious allegations against the Minister of the Presidency in Hargeisa for being a former Al-Shabab operative. These allegations were recently voiced by a former State Minster of Security who nearly lost his life and lost his freedom as a result of these credible allegations.

The International community seems to be oblivious to these potential destabilizing factors although there are strong indications that the Somaliland-Khatumo conflict will haunt the country for a long time unless the International Community puts pressure on the bellicose leaders of Somaliland in order to stop their illegal expansionist policies and respect the Federal Constitution of Somalia.

Another entity that has ignored the Somali Constitution and might pose a threat to the stability of the area is Puntland and its new leader who ironically used to be the Prime Minster of the Federal Republic of Somalia. As if it were not enough for Puntland’s previous leader, Farole, to commit atrocities against innocent civilians in Taleh, the temporary capital of Khatumo, as reported by the UN Monitoring Group, its current leader keeps bragging about reclaiming Las Anod, the capital of the Khatumo State, from Somaliland by force. His claims are based on a shared clan lineage with the Khatumo people. However, it is highly unlikely that a learned professor would go to war over Las Anod for a shared lineage with the Khatumo people. The real motive behind the sabre rattling of Abdi-Weli Gas is the potential oil in the Nugal Valley Block and particularly the Holhol field. The International Community needs to keep a close eye on a developing situation that can lead to a three-pronged conflict.

The explosive situation in the North is not unique to these regions. The lack of a credible Boundaries commission tasked with supervising the creation of the Federal States as stipulated in the Somali Constitution will lead to conflict. Things almost got out of hand in the Mudug case.

Destabilizing Dual Track Approach for Somalia

The Federal Government of Somalia and the world community seem to be working on a dual track approach to stabilize Somalia. The first track aims at federating the Southern States as was apparent from a recent conference on Somali Federalism held in Addis Ababa. The second track aims at re-negotiating a new ACT-Of-Union between the Somaliland Administration and the Federal Government in Mogadishu. These questionable negotiations are vague and are not transparent and broke down several times due to the lack of clarity and purpose. The talks initially skirted around the sharing of airspace and never addressed the core issue: the fate of the union.

The revival of these talks should take into consideration the new reality on the ground due to the establishment of the Khatumo State of Somalia under the leadership of the former Prime Minister of Somalia, Dr. Ali Khalif Galaydh. The fate of the former British Somaliland Protectorate which united voluntarily in 1960 with the former Italian Somaliland can no longer be decided by the Federal Government and the Somaliland Administration alone. The Somaliland Administration here refers to those regions in the North that want to secede from the Somali Republic and does not include unionist states such as the Khatumo state of Somalia and Awdal State.

Misuse of Donor Funds in Somaliland

Some of the millions of dollars that the International community provides to the Somaliland Administration for development and humanitarian purposes are used to arm and train elite units such as the Rapid Response Unit (RRU) that are deployed to suppress freedom of expression and association. These units are being trained by companies based in the UK. According to experts, foreign security companies may affect the exercise of sovereignty in the countries in which they operate, create resentment among the inhabitants and contribute to impunity for the crimes committed by the mercenaries they hire.

Saladin, a UK based security company, will now be used to train an elite Oil Protection Unit (OPU) that will provide security services for predator oil companies such as Genel and DNO. These companies are trying to replace oil giants such as Conoco-Phillips whose oil operations in Somalia have been suspended under force-majeure after the collapse of the Somali government in 1991. Since most of the nomads eking a precarious living from some of the areas being prospected for oil will resist such illegal incursions into their lands, the mercenary trained OPU is expected to use deadly force if necessary to expel or subdue them. Such hostile operations will result in the displacement of thousands of nomads from their ancestral lands.

In Conclusion

Instead of collaborating and working hard to extricate the country from such a miserable situation, Somalia’s current leaders squabble over the constitutionality of cabinet changes and are gearing up for a fight that will no doubt be marred by bribery and clan mobilizations. Sacking the current Prime Minister and replacing him with a new comer will only prolong the suffering of the Somali people. The hope that Somalis will go to the ballot box in 2016 is unrealistic and is based on wishful thinking and lack of vision.

The situation in Somalia reminds me of a Somali song in a play that was politically motivated and accurately predicted the current situation in Somalia. The play was composed many years before the collapse of the Somali government by the famous playwright Hadrawi who tried to alert the Somali people to the dangers that lay ahead for their country:

“Hal la qalay raqdeed baa,
Lagu soo qamaamoo,
Qalalaasihii baa,
Ninba qurub haleeloo,
Laba waliba qaybteed,
Qorraxday ku dubatoo,
Qoloftiyo laftii baa,
Lagu leqay qalaylkee;
Qosol wuxu ka joogaa,
Qubanaa dambeeyee,
Weli qaba hamuuntee,
Buuraha qotada dheer,
Ka arkaaya qiiqee,
Qarka soo jafaayee”

The Somali piece above can be roughly translated as:

“A slaughtered she-camel,
 was fought over by many contenders.
 In the ensuing confusion,
 each person got hold of a tiny piece,
 and cooked it in the sun.
 Even the bones and skin,
 were swallowed without water.
 What humors me most,
 are those who are still left,
 hungry for a share,
 seeing the smoke,
 from high mountains,
 clambering down,
 to reach an empty spot” 

Somalia is indeed like the she-camel of Hadrawi; slaughtered, fought over, divided and disappearing slowly from the map of the earth under the very eyes of its sons who have opted to watch helplessly as it splinters into tiny pieces fought over by power-hungry clan-motivated leaders while vultures, in the form of predator oil prospectors that can potentially harm the environment, clamber to exploit it. The Kenyan attempt to usurp a large portion of the Somali Coast portends the carving up of Somalia into several spheres of influence. We may be witnessing another Berlin Conference.

Even poets and playwrights like Hadrawi seem to have given up on Somalia and are no longer motivated to save the She Camel, Somalia, through their poems and lyrics .

So Let us pray for Somalia and hope for better leaders who can extricate our country from its seemingly perpetual failed-state status. The hurdles Somalia faces before rejoining the International Community are numerous and the road is littered with dangerous snares and pitfalls. Neither AMISOM nor other members of the International Community can save Somalia. Its fate lies in the hands of its own people. Instead of trotting the globe in search of demeaning handouts from Western and Gulf donors, all the current leaders of Somalia should sit under an acacia tree and hammer out a roadmap for reclaiming their country from AMISOM and the forces of darkness, the Al-Shabab who keep destroying the pristine acacia forests of Somalia in order to fund their misguided agenda.

God Save Somalia.

Ali H. Abdulla
Email: aliegeh@gmail.com