SOMALIA: IT IS TIME FOR PRESIDENT HASSAN TO COMPROMISE

February 24, 2016February 24, 2016

By Mohamed Abdiqafar H. Hussein

The Somali people expected that when the Special Representative of the UN Secretary General Michael Keating came to Puntland on February 9, 2016, he would bring a new plan to advance mediation between Puntland and the federal government. However, at the end of his meeting, it became clear that he had no new proposal.

Michael Keating did not come to influence the people of Puntland to accept the 4.5 election system presented by the federal government nor did he come to give consent to the Puntland version of the 2016 election, which is based on a district ballot vote. Those who went to the various meetings attended by Michael Keating stated that they presented their views against the 4.5 system and it seemed their points were understood.

In the press conference, at the end of the international community’s representative visit to Garowe, the President of Puntland, Abdiwali Gas, said that there was no new plan from the International Community, but he added that they are now aware of the Puntland situation and more discussions are expected to take place. Others said that Michael Keating was in Garowe for fact-finding. In that conference, Michael also stated that he will go back and meet the Federal Government to continue looking for a solution.

Even though Michael Keating did not deliver what the Puntland people expected, he came out of those meetings knowing more. He was told all the reasons why the Puntland people oppose the 4.5 system including all the agreements signed by the Somali leaders, which stated that 2012 was the last time the 4.5 system would be used.

The statement read and delivered by the ex-president of Puntland, Abdirahman Faroole, also mentioned some of the articles in the constitution that were changed without consulting all of the stakeholders. Puntland politicians, whom Michael Keating met, also told him that the main reason the president wants to use the 4.5 system is to make his reelection easy.

In addition, Michael Keating was told by the elders that it does not make sense that the same president who admitted that he had failed to achieve “one person, one vote” and who also called all the other stakeholders to decide which election model is to be used in 2016, has now, all of a sudden, decided to dictate to the Somali people the use of the 4.5 system which he knows is unconstitutional, but will secure his reelection. President Hassan knows that since the parliamentarians selected through the 4.5 system are not accountable to any constituent in any district or region, that they are up for sale.

As result, the Puntland people thought that they will help Michael to make an informed decision upon his return to Mogadishu, since his decision to accept the 4.5 system was suspected to be based on the information provided to him by the president and prime minister or Nicholas Kay. It is most likely that Nicholas Kay informed him that everything in Somalia politics is on track and the only thing waiting to happen is the outcome of the Mogadishu meeting, where the final model to be used is being decided.

Upon his arrival in Mogadishu, the president and prime minister presented to him the plan they orchestrated to remain in power while stepping over all the other agreements reached and the constitution. Most likely, they explained to him that based on the information collected from four cities in the current regional states with Jowhar and Mogadishu that overwhelmingly Somalis had agreed to use the 4.5 system without mentioning that there could be more than eight other cities whose constituents would prefer not to use the 4.5 system. However, that misinformation provided to Michael Keating cannot only be blamed on the president and prime minister alone. Jubaland and Puntland leaders made it easy for the president to present his case. They entertained the president while he was putting in place all the steps needed for the international community to agree with him.

Those who follow Somali politics knew the president was up to something when he proposed that the four models being discussed by the Somali people would include the 4.5 system, even though his mandate was to move Somalia forward.

Another issue which raised an average person’s eyebrow was when the president convinced all the regional leaders to agree that data on which model is to be used in 2016 would be collected from only six cities, with the knowledge that four out of the six cities would vote for the 4.5 system. Finally, the president and prime minister were able to present the outcome of those fabricated steps to the International Community to persuade them that this 4.5 system is what the Somali people overwhelmingly want.

After the Garowe meeting, Michael Keating continued his fact-finding mission to Baidoa in the Southwestern State, and met President Sharif Hassan and others in his administration. In Baidoa, Michael acknowledged that there are differences among the Somali regional leaders about which model is to be used in 2016, but he insisted on standing by his previous decision.

Michael Keating said that the decision about which model is to be used in the 2016 election belongs to the Somalia people and that the International Community was there to support that decision. He added that even though different models were to be used for the Lower and Upper Houses, it should be considered that the international community wants Somalia to move forward. This 4.5 system is the model that the government has chosen for the Lower House. He supported that model because it is the only one that can be implemented considering the security situation in the country. The reason Michael Keating stated that he supported the president’s decision can be considered valid, but the question is: will that model work on the ground?

Since the collapse of the central government in Somalia in 1991, the government has been built based on consensus among the Somali people. Ahmed Modobe, president of Jubaland, who accepted the 4.5 system after the International Community forced him, doubted its implementation when he said he is waiting for the International Community and others to implement that system.
Based on Somali behavior, it can be said that the plan is doomed to fail. Any solution should consider the reality on the ground. The Somali people will not accept any election that is not based on the constitution agreed by all, and any amendment made to the constitution should be approved by all.

It will be hard now for the Somali people, who welcomed President Hassan when he was elected because of his promise to lead the Somali people to “one man, one vote,” to accept him again when he admitted that he had failed to accomplish the most important goal of his mandate. They will not accept the 4.5 model as long as they know that if it is accepted, President Hassan will be reelected through bribing the parliamentarians, as he did when he ousted two prime ministers in less than three years.

The Somali people know very well the dangers of a leader who thinks he is the only one who can solve Somalia’s problems.
President Hassan should not only ask others to compromise, but he should consider compromising himself to allow the Somali people to move forward, considering that the Somali people gave him a four-year term during which he has not accomplished much.

If the president does that, the Somali people are willingly to accept a new leader elected through a system where there is a level playing field. Hopefully, this time they will elect someone who will promise to focus on the mandate and will not stand for another term.

Mohamed Abdiqafar H. Hussein
Email: mohabdhus@gmail.com

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Culusow’s government has again tampered with the constitution since Keating’s visit to puntland, effectively making the country a unitary, centralized state. And the Brits who oversee the so-called government are completely on board with Culusow’s shenanigans. Today, Culusow was asking the Istanbul conference to lift the arms embargo so that he can equip his clan and start invading other regions. Having lost the largest and the only functioning regional state-perhaps for good, let’s see what Culusow and his British handlers come up with in August 2016! It is clear to everyone that Somalia has taken multiple steps back towards lawlessness and anarchy.
February 24, 2016 Yasin Abdi
somalias current situation was predictable from 2012. hassans strategy was simple. break the constitution,create galmudug to balance puntland to continue 4.5 and get re-elected. it comes to no surprise that he demanded a lifting of the arms embargo which he will be granted given the perception that somalias position is not volatile. the best card that puntland can play at this moment to outmaneuver him is to discredit galmudug. galmudug offers hassan the confidence which he enjoys from his own tribe. take care of that and he will face his own clan.
February 24, 2016 hebal haatuf
Very predictable and boring, a “good”read for fadhi ku dirir individuals.
February 24, 2016 Mohamed Yare
Puntland is paying the price for the poor leadership it had since Abdullahi Yussuf. As a military man, he was a strategist with a vision who adeptly played Somali tribal politics to realise his personal ambitions and that of his clan. He has been successful on both counts admittedly with no pretensions of being a national statesman. Of those who came after him, the worst is the current leader, Abdiweli. Paranoid and myopic, he has neither vision nor strategy. Relying on Putland’s overblown weight in Somalia, and the misguided belief that all roads in Somali politics lead to Garawe, he wrongly thought he had a veto over any matter not to his taste cooked up in Mogadishu. Huffing, puffing and bluffing have been the standard response to any challenge to the perceived interest of Puntland.
Abdiweli has yet to realise that Hassan Sheikh is now calling the shots and has the international community on his side, all because he has the winning cards in his hands. His knee-jerk response is to dig in his hells, huff and puff – and even threaten secession. It is unlikely to work and in the end Puntland will be humbled, forced to bite the bullet and accept the 4.5 formula it has hitherto vehemently rejected.
How did Hassan Skeikh succeed and Abdiweli fail? Needless to say, Haassan created satellite regional States for his own political ends. His success to push through the formation of Galmudug Regional State, against all odds and contrary to the constitution, attests to his single-mindedness to do what he wants to get what he wants, using money, the power of his office and his prowess for political shenanigans. Abdiwei’s Puntland on the other hand saw no need for true allies other than the dubious Jubalans’s Ahmed Madoobe. He deserted them because he reckoned the sacrifice he has to make siding with Puntland was onerous.
Things might have been different and Puntland in a better stronger position if Khatumo State was formally accepted as a State Federal member. It would have been a more reliable partner to Puntland just as Galmudug is to Hassan Sheikh. It did not happen because Puntland put all possible difficulties to deny it that status for the sake of maintaining the fig leave that the SSC regions are part of Greater Puntland. Khatumo will of course get its way, sooner or later, but the ultimate loser on all fronts would be Puntland. As Qamaan Bulxan said in response to Ali Dhuux in the famous Guba poems:” Nin walaal kii doorsaday ilaah daraja siinwaaye”
February 26, 2016 Mohsin
- Muxsin,
  Haddii la idin isticmaalay oo dabadeena la idin tuurayna weli Hawiye ma u jaamaynaysaa!!!? Waxba Culusow Cabdi Weli ma yeeli karo, waayo wuxuu markii horeba faraha ugu hayaa iska yaraa. Culusow haddii uu jebiyo wixii lagu heshiiyey ee Puntland ixtiraamaysay, isagay u taallaa cidda uu ku xukumayo wuxuu gacanta ku samaystay? Options-ka u furnina Puntland aad bay u badan yihiin. Balse Caligan aad tuurta ku sidato adigaa abti u ahe dee meel gee, ama tolkiisa u shaqeeya SNM ha u tago oo fidmada Buuhoodle uu kula dhex jiro ha kala dhex baxo.
  February 27, 2016 Yasin Abdi
  - Falladhi gilgilasho kaagama go’do. Waxba farta haku fiiqin Hawiye. Shacabkiisu 100 kiiba 100 waa taageersan yahay Khatumo. Hadii cidi Cadow ku tahay waad garaynaysaa.
    February 27, 2016 Mohsin
Mohsin,
I can see your obviously gleeful response to the current events between Culusow and Puntland. I am afraid, Mohsin, your celebration is a little bit premature though. I can guarantee if Puntland digs its heels and decides not to participate in Culusow’s 4.5 formula, nothing is going to happen to them despite your wishes to the contrary. What you tend to forget is the fact that Mogadishu has been a capital in name only for the last 25 years? We know who you are even though I would elect not to reveal your identity, and for a man in your age, I think it is highly unbecoming to insult an honorable leader on this page just because he refused to recognize Ali Khalif (a well known closet secessionist and subversive for the enemy) as the leader and representative of Dhulbahante!!!
February 27, 2016 Bulhan Warsame
- “Waa lagu digtaa qoon haduu kuu darnaan jiray” ( Ali Dhuux to the Sayid on his defeat).
  Me, gleeful about Pundland’s doldrums? Not really. But if I were to be, do you blame me, and almost all the Khatumo people, considering all the harm your Puntland did to the SSC regions – giving them away to SL on a plate, and yet still preposterously claiming them, sparing no effort to deny them to have their rightful place in Federal Somalia?
  Of course, in defending Puntland, that conflates in your subconsciousness with your clan’s enclave and excludes the SSC regions- otherwise, they are merely claimed to be part of Puntland as a negatiatng chip to further Puntland’s clan interest. And yet you want them to be cheerleaders for Abdiweli. Sometimes listening to him, he would be hard pressed to place Lascanod and Buuhoodleh on Somalia’s map.
  February 27, 2016 Mohsin
Puntland is out of touch with the reality on the ground in Somalia. Abdiweli Gas needs some psychiatric help and some rest. He drove the Puntland boat aground. While he is away, Garacad and Eyl fell to Al-Shabaab. What in hell is he doing boasting in Minneapolis while the Puntland is being overrun by Galmudug and Al-Shabaab???
Gaas is raving crazy!
March 15, 2016 Abdulqadir Tallman