By Tim Hart

LONDON – From 1 December 2015, the shipping industry’s ‘high risk area’ off Somalia was reduced in size. The redrawing of the boundaries, announced in October 2015, followed a significant drop in armed attacks and hijacks in the north-western Indian Ocean. Somali piracy in 2015 reached around 1% of the levels seen at its height in 2011.

Yet a month after the announcement was made, the pirates reminded the industry of their continued potency, reportedly seizing a fishing vessel in the Indian Ocean more than 200 nautical miles from the coast. While the reduction of the high risk area was designed to symbolise the success of counter-piracy measures, those opposed argue that reducing security measures could encourage groups to launch more such attacks.

After all, the situation onshore in Somalia, which enabled the groups to operate their unique ‘hijack-for-ransom’ model, has not dramatically changed. The reduction of the high risk area followed pressure from regional states, which pointed to the drop in activity and lack of high-profile hijacks since 2012, rather than the dismantling of pirate capability and economic advances within Somalia.

Now the shipping industry and navies face difficult choices.

Since mid-2011, a combination of co-ordinated naval patrols and improved ship security measures, including the use of armed guards, has effectively contained Somali pirate groups offshore. Yet maintaining these measures is expensive, particularly at a time of global economic pressures and emerging naval commitments elsewhere.

So what does this mean for the future of Somali piracy?

Source: Forbes