By Mohamed Fatah

In late December 2024, the semi-autonomous region of Puntland launched Operation Hilac (Operation Arrow), a decisive campaign against the Islamic State in Somalia (ISS) aka Daesh that has since become a textbook example of effective counterterrorism. While the Somali federal government in Mogadishu continues to flounder in its war against al-Shabaab, Puntland has demonstrated that local leadership, self-reliance, and strategic vision can deliver tangible results. This stark contrast between Puntland’s progress and Mogadishu’s failures offers a compelling case for rethinking Somalia’s governance and counterterrorism strategy.

The Puntland Security Forces have waged a relentless and highly successful campaign against the Islamic State in the Bari region, reclaiming strategic territory and dismantling key insurgent strongholds. Their discipline, coordination, and effective leadership have stabilized communities long terrorized by extremists. These forces have not only pushed back militants but have done so with limited external support, proving that strong leadership and a clear strategy are critical to defeating terrorism.

At the heart of Puntland’s success is President Said Abdullahi Deni, whose leadership has been game- changing. Re-elected to a second term in 2024, President Deni has prioritized security, governance, and economic development, earning the trust and support of his people. Under his command, Operation Arrow has eliminated key ISIS operatives, dismantled extremist networks, and reclaimed territory, all while operating on a fraction of the budget available to the federal government.

In contrast, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s declaration of war against al-Shabaab in 2023 has been a spectacular failure. Despite billions of dollars in international aid and military support, Mogadishu has made little progress in its fight against the extremist group. Corruption, nepotism, cronyism and  mismanagement, and a lack of strategic direction have plagued the federal government’s efforts, leaving large parts of the country under al-Shabaab’s control.

Operation Arrow: A New Model for Counterterrorism

Launched in late December 2024, Operation Arrow has been a game-changer in the fight against ISIS. The campaign, led by Puntland’s security forces, has focused on intelligence-driven operations, community engagement, and targeted military strikes. These efforts have not only weakened ISIS but also strengthened the bond between the government and its citizens.

The Puntland government has invested in building a professional, well-trained, and well-equipped security force. Unlike the Somali federal government, which relies heavily on foreign troops and funding, Puntland has prioritized local ownership and accountability. This approach has enabled Puntland’s forces to operate with greater efficiency and legitimacy, earning the respect of both their people and international partners.

The Federal Government’s Downward Spiral

While Puntland moves forward, Mogadishu is going backward. President Mohamud’s declaration of war against al-Shabaab in 2023 was met with optimism, but his administration has failed to deliver. Corruption, nepotism, and cronyism have undermined the federal government’s efforts, with international donor funds routinely siphoned off by senior officials and their allies.

Perhaps most egregiously, President Mohamud has appointed unqualified individuals, including former members of al-Shabaab, to senior government positions. These appointments have eroded public trust and raised serious questions about the government’s commitment to combating extremism. Meanwhile, al-Shabaab continues to carry out deadly attacks with impunity, further highlighting the federal government’s inability to secure the country.

A Tale of Two Leaders

The contrast between President Deni and President Mohamud could not be starker. Deni’s leadership has been marked by a clear vision for Puntland’s future. He has successfully managed the region’s challenges, from terrorism to economic development, earning the trust and support of his people. In contrast, Mohamud’s tenure has been defined by mismanagement, corruption, and a lack of strategic direction.

The Alleged Role of External Actors

While Puntland’s success is largely homegrown, external actors have played a supportive role. The United States, under the Trump administration, has provided kinetic support, while the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Ethiopia provided financial and material support. These contributions have complemented—not supplanted—Puntland’s own initiatives, ensuring that the region retains control over its security strategy. In contrast, the federal government’s reliance on foreign troops and funding has created a dependency that undermines local capacity-building. Despite billions in international aid, Mogadishu has failed to build a cohesive national army, relying instead on African Union peacekeepers and U.S. airstrikes to counter al-Shabaab.

A New Model for Somalia

Puntland’s success carries broader implications for Somalia’s political and security landscape. It challenges the prevailing assumption that a strong centralized government is the key to stability and counterterrorism. Instead, Puntland’s model suggests that well-governed regional states can be more effective in securing their territories and combating extremism. This decentralized approach aligns with Somalia’s federal structure, which grants significant autonomy to its member states.

The international community must take note. For too long, the focus has been on propping up the Somali federal government, despite its repeated failures. It is time to shift resources and attention to empowering federal member states like Puntland, which have demonstrated the capacity to deliver results. By investing in regional security forces and governance structures, the international community can help build a more resilient and decentralized Somalia—one that is better equipped to confront the twin threats of terrorism and state fragility.

Conclusion

Puntland’s success is not just a counterterrorism victory; it is a testament to the power of local leadership and self-reliance. Under President Deni’s leadership, Puntland has shown that effective governance, investment in people and infrastructure, and a commitment to accountability can pave the way for progress. In contrast, President Mohamud’s administration serves as a cautionary tale of how nepotism, corruption and mismanagement can undermine even the most well-intentioned efforts.

As Somalia continues to grapple with terrorism, insecurity and political instability, Puntland offers a blueprint for how the country can move forward. The question is whether the international community will seize this opportunity—or continue to pour resources into a centralized model that has repeatedly failed to deliver. In a region often defined by despair, Puntland’s story is a rare glimmer of hope. It is a reminder that even in the most challenging environments, effective leadership, governance and local initiative can pave the way for progress. The world would do well to take notice—and act accordingly.

Mohamed Fatah
Email: mabshir47@outlook.com
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Mohamed Fatah is an executive specializing in government affairs, foreign policy, national security, regulatory and financial crimes compliance.

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