By Ali Abdulle
The countdown for Puntland election is truly and seriously underway. The campaign is in full swing. All the ingredients are in place to guarantee a thrilling election campaign. And it is already becoming clear that there is an element of unpredictability in this election. Few months ago, the current leadership were almost written off as credible contenders; not any more. This election is wide open.
Because of the long list of failures, mistakes and at times sheer incompetence of the current administration, even seeking further term in office was considered unthinkable. A re-election of the current dweller of the presidential palace is however not inconceivable at this point in time and dismissing Faroole out of hand would be a grave mistake by opponents.
The contenders are also coming in droves. It is the nature of this type of elections to attract not only the ambitious, the opportunistic and the self-publicist but also the jokers and even the downright lunatics throwing their hats into the ring coveting the top job. Of the contestants vying to topple the incumbent is a former federal prime minister, no less.
There is a sense of de ja vu in the air – an unfinished business, as it were, between these two prominent candidates; the sitting leader and the former prime minister (FPM). Their rivalry goes back to the days of the roadmap and the drafting of the federal constitution. Indeed this election is effectively between these two characters although a dark horse contender emerging at the last minute cannot be discounted.
Back in 2012 during the federal elections these same protagonists locked horns. Unlike the current president who was not in the running for the top job at the federal state, the former premier had his sights firmly on winning the ultimate prize, right at the top of a new central government and even thought it was already in the bag. After all, he was the man tasked with the stewardship of the road map intended to end the transitional period and bring in a permanent government after many interim ones. But despite being in pole position to influence things from inside and engineer his victory from within, success eluded him in a spectacular way coming only poor third on the first count.
Part of the problem was the bruising battles which pitched the FPM against the current Puntland leader. With the FPM also hailing from the same region the two should have been close allies, not adversaries, fighting in the same corner to secure what would have been a remarkable honour for Puntland and its people.The fallout from that period is the backdrop to the current election. Their spectacular rift is still a subject of intense speculation and the animosity between the two camps as fierce as it can be. And they both have their supporters and critics in equal measure.
The critics of the FPM are quick to dismiss him as a political novice still learning the ropes of Somalia’s treacherous political intrigues and will find it difficult to outmaneuver his rival; an old hand in the murky world of skullduggery and back stabbing characteristic of the Somali political arena.They even argue that he came to his old job by sheer luck simply because his close friend got the role of forming a government and brought him in as a cabinet member. Then as though one occurrence of good luck wasn’t enough another round of good fortune hit him when his protégé fell on his sword after a bout of conniving and rivalry at the very top of the then transitional government – that way stepping into his shoes without any effort from his part.
Not to be outdone in the negative campaigning department, his supporters point out at the botched democratisation process which was flawed from the start as a major weakness of the government. If the stalled democratisation process is to be reignited with a view to conducting the next election using the one man one vote system the current administration will struggle to convince anyone that they can be trusted with its completion.But their trump card no doubt is the roadmap and ending of the interim administrations; a project he completed on time and on budget. Besides, their argument goes, if change is what is needed to transform the political landscape and a new broom to sweep away the corruption, nepotism and the ineffective ways of running things, then there is only one horse to bet on. After all Somalia is emerging from the shadows of a prolonged conflict and moving into a recovery and developmental stage.
This election is no doubt the last act of a long lasting rivalry between them. What is clear is that none of the two men won from their confrontation. They both lost; one had seen his political ambition at least at the federal level curtailed, the crown he thought was rightly his irretrievably lost and the other is on the receiving end of unrelenting hostility from the federal powers he ironically helped to come into office.
Unknown to anyone, those who took over power in Mogadishu turned out to belong to an obscure religious sect known as Damul Jadiid pejoratively called Dambul Jadiid by their critics, intent on pursuing a divisive agenda in the midst of a terrorist war wreaking havoc not only in Somalia but throughout the region. It is not only their political objectives that are worrying but their modus operandi and the characters too. With the prime minister side-lined a gaunt Rasputin like figure, aptly dubbed the blade, is exerting wholly undue influence on the entire affairs of government and pursing a hidden and suspicious political program.
The shadow of the central government is therefore looming large in this election. At the centre of the political campaign will be on the one hand how prospective candidates will convince electors that they can stand up to the interests of the state and on the other capitalise on the relative stability of the region to embark on a major programme of economic develop.
So there you have it. The battle lines are drawn and two characters with over inflated egos are at daggers drawn. This election is promising to be totally different from anything we have seen so far. Puntland watchers are in for a spectacle of high drama. The stakes are so high to such an extent that some are already sounding the alarm, fearful of the political scrum degenerating into a violent standoff.
The election itself is curious and is indirect in its workings. There are 66 members of parliament electing a president and a vice president and they face a stark choice: change or the status quo. Apart from the personalities and presentations there are important and substantive issues involved in this election. The outcome will affect not only the region but will have a direct influence on how Somalia is run in the future. Puntland regions spearheaded the rebellion against the defunct military rule and have a bitter memory of that era. Likewise the northern entity of Somaliland faced a similar experience and suffering at the hands of a centralised dictatorship.
None of these entities will accept a return to the status quo ante. Only a credible federal system with a copper-bottomed guarantee that running the country in the old way is unthinkable and will not be repeated is the way forward if a proper central government is to be resurrected from its current state of suspended animation.
No wonder the over-centralising policy pursued by the current federal regime is seen by observers as an obstacle to peace in Somalia. Concentrating all the power of the state in Mogadishu, the old Somali capital but now a tribal fiefdom is plunging the country back into the old entrenched mentality of division and suspicion.
As the campaign gathers pace the suitability of any contestant will depend to a large extent on how they convince the public at large but more importantly the electors not only that the state is safe in their hands but there will be a considerable improvement in the standard of living of ordinary people.
The ills afflicting the state are too many to enumerate. Concentrating on negative propaganda and smear campaigns will only serve to depress the mood of the public and sow the seeds of cynicism and mistrust directed at all those seeking political office. What is needed is a positive campaign. This election provides a unique opportunity to stimulate a wider debate on how to proceed from here with a view to charting a credible and unified political and social programme to re-define the role of the state in the current political climate and move to the next level of development.
Ali Abdulle
Email:barqadle@hotmail.co.uk