Puntland: Dealing with rebellion and isolation

February 9, 2016February 9, 2016

By Ali Abdulle

Will the crisis brewing in Puntland prove to be a storm in a tea cup or a shattering earthquake that will shake the province to its core? The stakes couldn’t be higher as the country as whole inches towards the end of the current government’s term in office and the anticipation for a change and a new dawn to lift the country from the mess it has been in for the last two decades.

The unrest in the eastern part of the state couldn’t come at worse time specially for the president, Mr Abdiweli Gas. This is the stuff of nightmares, an unnecessary distraction when there are more pressing issues at hand of vital significance at national level.

Abdiwali Maxamed — President Abdiwali of Puntland

But this just a manifestation of one of the numerous challenges faced by Puntland. It seems that they have mastered the fine art of making enemies proving an irritant to all involved in Somali politics. Its adversaries seem to be steadily increasing and it’s not only the usual suspects in the federal government that Puntland is at loggerheads with. The neighbouring entity of Galmudug is at daggers drawn with it and so is the far away South Western state not to mention the secessionist Somaliland province with its long standing confrontation. And to make matters worse, the so called international community dubbed the 6^th clan seems to have now joined the fray, putting their shoulder to the wheel in the efforts to undermine Puntland’s position.

But formidable as these challenges maybe, they pale into insignificance compared to a communal unrest particularly in a place like the port city of Bosaso the economic nerve centre of the state.

Tribal rebellions pose particular problems and not easy to deal with at any rate. But whatever the underlying causes of the current turbulence it is the role of government and its response to the challenge that is the deciding factor on whether the whole thing just fizzles out or turns into something much worse.

So what is the plan of the government to quell the current emergency in Bosaso? What is the best way to handle such a delicate and sensitive matter to avert a widespread revolt in such a crucial part of the province?

Rumblings from certain sections of society is nothing new in that part of the country. There are well justified grievances not to mention disappointments with successive governments in Puntland. But the fact that it has surfaced at this point in time is particularly unfortunate. The communities expressing discontent are the very folks who were and are still the backbone of the state itself ready to make sacrifices in defence of its vital interests at these uncertain times. And that is why the problem must be approached with the urgency it deserves.

There are of course those with ulterior motives trying to exploit the genuine complaints of the populace like the former regional governor. But these elements will be isolated voices if the wider grumblings are addressed. It is imperative that all constituents making up the region as a whole see themselves as stakeholders. And here perceptions are just as important as the reality on the ground.

A sobering analysis of the situation is warranted at this juncture. Dismissing the protagonists of this mutiny as agents provocateurs is counterproductive. The government must come up with a long term plan not only to defuse the current tension but also to work a route map to settle the long held grievances by some communities in the region. Despite more than 17 years of relative peace and stability state institutions are still fragile. There is a lack of transparency and fairness not only in appointing and making personnel changes but also in tendering processes for lucrative government contracts in Puntland today.

Obviously the spurious claim by certain individuals that some communities are more equal than other in Bari region in general and in Bosaso city in particular has no historical or political foundation. But the government must acknowledge that rebellions feed on mythology and that means perceptions as well as the root causes of the current dispute need to be addressed without delay.

It is an open secret that there are organised opposition groups just lurking underneath ready to exploit the situation for their own ends, if this low level insurgency is allowed to persist. The old regime in particular is intact headed by the old warhorse himself Mr Farole, who is showing no sign of losing his fighting spirit despite suffering defeat and personal tragedies.

Indeed, the role of the old regime cannot be easily dismissed in this saga and the president ignores the noises coming from these quarters at his peril.

The old guard, still smarting from their devastating defeat are licking their wounds and waiting in the wings ready to pounce at the first opportunity to grab power from the clutches of the current leadership.

And then there is the problem of the combined onslaught from the federal government and the international community with their mini plan of handing the current federal president and his Dam Jadiid group the presidency on a silver plate for the next 4 years; for this in effect is the essence of the current controversy.

The so called international community is made up of junior officers on a year or 2 year stints to build their careers and move on for more senior posts. Somalia is unique in this respect. in all the other troubled countries UN missions were always headed by high ranking staff members with well-established diplomatic and political experience; and the result of this poor leadership is there for all to see. To make matters worse the current head of the UN mission unlike his predecessor, who occasionally talked about the need for change, seems to have gone native at breakneck speed, indeed in just a matter of weeks. The word from the UN under current arrangement is everything will be alright as long as everybody follows federal government instructions – no initiative or creativity from their part in any shape or form. It comes as no surprise therefore, that the mission is in deep trouble. Despite millions of dollars spent on security the African Union peace keeping forces are losing men and materials to Al Shabab militants not to mention vast swathes of territory. The area they control is shrinking fast reduced to major urban centres where they can adequately defend their supply lines leaving the countryside for Al Shabaab forces to roam at will. And the source of their predicament is precisely because the government in Mogadishu is not honouring their side of the bargain. They were meant to build a Somali national army to fight alongside AMISOM troops. But not surprisingly the regime had other plans. Their idea of a national army is to recruit soldiers only from certain areas hoping perhaps to dress up a tribal militia as the national army just as they turned Mogadishu into a tribal fiefdom doubling as the national capital.

How long will western tax payers tolerate pouring money into a bottom less black hole is anybody’s guess especially when they themselves are in the grip of a depilating economic downturn.

So what will Puntland do as the federal government and its loyal backers plan their next move to twist their arm and force them to toe the line. It will be interesting to see on the one hand what punitive measures will be threatened if they dared to stick to their guns and on the other what the response of Puntland would be.

With Jubaland, raising the white flag after intense pressure, veiled threats and empty promises, Puntland is on its own and it is not clear how long they will be able to hold out.

But here is a thought-provoking and even exciting question. With the discredited 4.5 system of elections designated for the lower house of parliament probably a forgone conclusion, will Puntland be able to snatch victory from the jaws of adversity. Will they be able to wrest significant concession on the implementation of the selection process for the new members of the lower chamber; a copper-bottomed guarantee that Villa Somalia will not have their way in determining the shape of the next parliament. Only a system ensuring that Dam Jadiid will not return to power after the forthcoming elections come September 2016 will be an acceptable quid pro quo for Puntland to accept the current proposals as they are formulated at the present moment.

So there you have it, the battle lines are dawn. Will there be a real change, a genuine transformation of the country and the realization of the long suffering people of Somalia’s aspirations? Or will it be more of the same, corruption, divisions and ineptitude of the current regime for another four-year term? This in a nutshell, is what is at stake at this point in time.

Ali Abdulle

email: barqadle@hotmail.co.uk

No Comments

This is what normally happens when you put mentally sick person in the lead
February 9, 2016 moyu
This is what normally happens when you put mentally sick person in the lead
February 9, 2016 moyu
Good Analysis, and, although, I am not well-versed in the dark-alleys of Puntland’s internal tribal politicking, particularly what is going on in Bosaso and how its genesis have come about, but, I will say this. And, that is, Prof Gas, has been a unmitigated disaster at politics – both locally in Puntland and in the wider Somali’s world. Hence, I couldn’t really believed how he was so solipsistic, inept, and down-right untutored in the art of political deal-making. Even to the point that he had lose – glaringly and openly – to Hassan Culusow of Mogadishu, particularly when it comes to influencing the UN’s pen-pushers in Somalia, in-terms of where Somalia should go come the change-over of the presidential selection in this September.
Moreover, the UN made her “choice”, admittedly a bad one for Puntland. But the fault lays with Prof Gas, who seemed to come across, as if he has been blind-sided by the UN’s move. Although, everyone could of seen it easily that the UN will put her thump on the scale, eventually, particularly in the event of a failure of agreement between the Somalis stake-holders in their various inconclusive meetings. Hence, that he was so bad in reading the “political tea-leaves”, particularly where the eventual UN’s position will be, is really an indictment of the highest order.
However, now that the “deeds” is done, and considering that UN is not going back on its word, by saying lets open this particularly Pandora’s box, in which Somalis could start to re-litigate their differences, afresh, then the option open to Puntland is really unenviable.
And by that I mean, there is no way the UN will give any “sotto-voce” gentlemen’s sort of agreement in which upon it Hassan Culusow could be disbar in running for a second term, in exchange of Puntland coming in from the cold and accepting the deal the UN had forced through. Which is what the author of this article seems to insinuates, or even suggest as one possibility in which upon its political realization, Puntland could then come in from the cold (as it where).
Hence, the UN seems so invested heavily in to the maintenance of a facade which says, that Somalia is recovering state (not a failed state), whereby, the government is legitimate and all stake-holders have agreed the way forward. Of course, its patently obvious that Somalia is far from that happy picture as anything could be possible be. But the UN’s hired-apparatchiks, such as their head-honcho in Somalia, namely a certain Mr Keating, seems to be oblivious to any other political reality other than UN’s own fiction.
And, I suspect that may be largely to do with the fact that UN has effectively concluded that Somalia is endless problem, and they want to cut their losses and leave her in the lurch, once this transition is completed, come September of this year, and once the Al-Shabaab’s troubles are contained into the country-side. Hence, its a PR shell-game what the UN has in mind in here. In particularly in the sense of saying, that we have helped Somalia to come out from her failed status into a recovering state. And therefore, once this transition is done, so our job of “baby-sitting” Somalia, in political term, will also be at an end.
All in all, I think Puntland need to re-group and start thinking how to make a best hand out of a miserable sets of political cards, in which, Prof Gas, had seen fit to “collect” for Puntland, particularly from the Political high-stake Casino that is Somalia’s politicking reality in this transitional period.
Consequently, he really need to up his game. And in that context, he need to spend some time in retail politics, in the sense of wooing the various stake-holders in Somalia’s politics, such as Sharif Sakin of Baidabo, and others within the Mogadishu’s political elites. And, he should do that so that he will have to genuinely convinced them that Hassan Culusow and his conspiratorial Dam-Jadiid’s clique, are bad news for every one, not only for Puntland.
Of course, so long as Prof Gas come across to others as if he is “privileging” the position of Puntland, politically, to the exclusion of everyone else’s political interest, then he will not have any luck in cobbling together a “political coalition” against Hassan Culusow and his Dam-Jadiid’s clique.
Hence, he need to drop, speedily, the arrogance dismissiveness in which he treat others with, along with the customary stiff-upper-lip haughtiness in which one detects from his political mutterings when it comes to seriously negotiating with others in the political arena. And that is doubly urgent now, since his old game of “Plan A” has been comprehensively defeated. And therefore he needs a new “Plan B”, which should start from the deep conviction that will suggest to him the political need to build a “coalition partners” within the various stake-holders, so that, he (or his preferred candidate for the presidency) can be a “contender” for high-office at best, within Somalia after September hand-over. Or at worse, Puntland’s interest will be fully “respected” by whoever comes after the hand-over.
And that means, he should work tirelessly how a new group of politicians can take the helm, politically, at Mogadishu, whereby, Puntland’s political interest will not be a non-starter with them, as it currently is with Hassan Culusow and his Dam-Jadiid’s clique.
Subsequently the questions are: can Prof Gas pull off such a feat of “coalition-building”? Or even swallow his pride – long enough – to understand that he has been bested comprehensively by Hassan Culusow in this “first round”; and therefore he should come prepare for the “second round” with a new and a better plan B? Well we shall see soon enough, I suppose.
February 9, 2016 Dhako
- Apparently, after I have posted this analysis, I just saw in the Hiiraan online that a large delegation from the UN and the rest of the International community hangers-on, have arrived in Garowe, with the expectation of mollifying, or at any rate helping Prof Gas to unhook himself – honorably – from his own political petard.
  Hence, according to the news item there, the delegation will be in town for a three days. And, this of course, will mean lots of arm-twisting, all manner of political lullaby, and, of course, the usual promise of “elbow-oiling” by the international community will be done there in those three days
  Lets hope Prof Gas can really have a better game-plan than the one he confronted with these same set of people, when they have told him that they were minded to support Hassan Culusow instead of his plan during the last Mogadishu’s meeting.
  But, still, for what is worth, I think, Prof Gas, is bound to come down to reality and accept the “blandishment” (or perhaps the “threats”) of these folks, who are really the ones who call the shots in Somalia. But, the point is, at what concession (or price) will he extract from them.
  After all, he must not sell his political hand rather cheaply. But still, he must really play the game of his life now, or he will be remembered as the most politically inept leader in which that fiefdom was ever cursed with. Hence we shall see as to what price, politically, he will demand for his eventual climb-down.
  February 9, 2016 Dhako
- Apparently, after I have posted this analysis, I just saw in the Hiiraan online that a large delegation from the UN and the rest of the International community hangers-on, have arrived in Garowe, with the expectation of mollifying, or at any rate helping Prof Gas to unhook himself – honorably – from his own political petard.
  Hence, according to the news item there, the delegation will be in town for a three days. And, this of course, will mean lots of arm-twisting, all manner of political lullaby, and, of course, the usual promise of “elbow-oiling” by the international community will be done there in those three days
  Lets hope Prof Gas can really have a better game-plan than the one he confronted with these same set of people, when they have told him that they were minded to support Hassan Culusow instead of his plan during the last Mogadishu’s meeting.
  But, still, for what is worth, I think, Prof Gas, is bound to come down to reality and accept the “blandishment” (or perhaps the “threats”) of these folks, who are really the ones who call the shots in Somalia. But, the point is, at what concession (or price) will he extract from them.
  After all, he must not sell his political hand rather cheaply. But still, he must really play the game of his life now, or he will be remembered as the most politically inept leader in which that fiefdom was ever cursed with. Hence we shall see as to what price, politically, he will demand for his eventual climb-down.
  February 9, 2016 Dhako
- Dhako
  I join your verdict on Abdiwelli Gaas Puntland Presidency as a disaster. But he shares that blame with the whole Puntland political elite whose failures and shortsightedness go back all the way to his predecessors as the author pointed out. Puntland is a victim of its own foolhardy self-delusion in believing that its temporary preeminence in the past, born of its relative success since its establishment in 1998 against the turmoil in the rest of southern Somalia, would endure and they would remain the top dog in Somalia for ever. That delusion was nourished partly by the international community who pampered the only functioning bit in former Italian somaliland.
  Thus, until recently, all roads would lead to Garawe where almost all deals on Somalia were done. This has bred a certain arrogance and self- importance particularly innate in the character of Abdiwelli Gaas that they can dictate to the rest of Somalia and even the international community. This might have been possible in the past but not any longer with new shifting balances of power now much in favour of Hassan Culusow. Unlike Puntland, he has been able to build alliances mainly against Puntland, making use of the millions of dollars of State resources he is using for his own political ends. His greates success was to wean Jubaland’s wayward Ahmed Madoobe from his alliance with Puntland – a damning indictment of Abdiwelli that his partner would pull this sudden betrayal surprise right in front of his own eyes, apparently neither aware of its looming nor making serious efforts to foil it.
  Where does Puntland goes from here? Getting rid of Abdiwelli right now is no panacea. It could even make matters worse. Puntland has to learn from its past mistakes and accept the realities that they no longer the top dog in Somalia. They should beat Hassan Culusow in his own game and win alliances: first to renounce its preposterous claim to the SSC regions and support Khatumo in addition to regaining Jubaland’s alliance. These could form a formidable alliance and a counter weight to Culusow’s cobbled fragile alliance, a realignment of forces which could not be ignored by the SRSG.
  Once Puntland adopts this strategy, and accept working within the 4.5 formula, it could defeat Culusow in his own game and deny him the Presidency not only for the good of Puntland but for Somalia.
  February 9, 2016 Osman Omar Hassan
  - Osman,
    Well, firstly the name is “Dhako” (as in “head”). And, secondly, I do agree with you much of the analysis about the origin of Puntland’s political own goal, which is very much in evident nowadays. Although, you and I, obviously, disagree many things in regards to the “fate” of the Khatumo state. However, where I agree with you easily is on the prospect of Khatumo helping Prof Gas, in his struggle against Hassan Culusow, if he had played his card rather differently.
    Moreover, considering how Gal-Mudug,which is not even a complete state have won the price of being considered as a member of good standing when it comes to who is a stake-holder in Somalia’s musical chairs, then he in turn should have been clever to say (nay, insist) that Khatumo is also a state of its own, in that political dispensation.
    And therefore, in that eventuality, he could have in his political column: such as Jubbaland, Puntland, and of course, Khatumo state. Where as, Hassan Culusow, is counting on the South-West, Gal-Mudug, Hiiraan/Shabelle-Dhexe, to give him a leg up when it comes to the presidential election in this September.
    Consequently, I think, once Gal-Mudug was, politically, “legitimized” (against very edicts of the provisional constitution, which state that only two regions and more can form a political state within the Somalia’s constitution) then he should of said it, that: two can play this fictitious game. And therefore, insist, that, in that case, Khatumo is also State, even, if the bulk of Khatumo state is in the hand of Somaliland.
    After all, Gal-Mudug, doesn’t control even two complete cities, much less it being a political state with two regions under its belt. Hence if he had played his card this way, he would have not come across as a sore loser when he is against the 4.5 formulation, since everyone knows that Somalia can’t have a one-person-one-vote in this year.
    This is the reason, I kept saying, Prof Gas, is really not a politician (in the true sense of the word). But rather, he is a technocrat, who seems to think that Somalia is a normal state where arguments gets to be evaluated on their on terms; as opposed to dysfunctional state, in which political argument, or at least whose argument gets to be prevail against others, is always “contingent” on the fact of who has the power to complicate the agenda of others, such as UN’s offices in Somalia.
    Hence, since Mogadishu and its environment has the potential to be a endless geopolitical trouble-makers for the region and the wider world due to the insurgency-infested reality of that city, then the UN and the international community will always bend their ears for the arguments of those who hail from that city and its environment much more readily than they would do for others, including even to Somaliland.
    Subsequently, that, “biting” political reality ought to have been a six-sense sort of “accepted wisdom” in the mind of highly learned man, like Prof Gas. But, apparently he seems to forget, that, if it comes down to it, the UN and the rest of the international community (IC) will always side with the agenda of those who are ruling Mogadishu.
    And the reason for it, is that since Mogadishu has the capacity to be persistent trouble-maker for the rest of the world, if they are not politically satisfied. And this will simply mean the international community (IC) and her UN’s good offices, will always pay double attention to the arguments of the Mogadishu’s elites.
    Of course, that is unfair to many Somali. But the reality is that the international community (IC) only cares about Somalia in so far as what damage Somalis could do the peace and tranquility of the region and the wider world. And since only Mogadishu with her endless stream of insurgency has that capacity of being a “trouble-making” place, then, I am afraid, the international community (IC) will only care for those who could do a damage to them. Not self-governing entities, like Somaliland and Puntland, who had established a law-and-order without anyone teaching them how to do it.
    In other words, like Afghanistan, whereby, the powers-that-be, have accepted that for that place to be at peace with itself and with others, then the Taliban-supporting-Pashtun-tribesmen, must always be given the chance to rule Afghanistan against others, like the manner Hamid Karzai as well as the current president Ahraf Ghani, were made a presidents of that place, since both of these gentlemen, are Pashtun tribesmen.
    And, similarly, it seems, ever since, Col. Abdilahi Yusuf (Yey) was evicted from power back in the 2008, the international community (IC) has accepted that, the Pashtun-of-Somalia (i.e., the Mogadishu’s elites) must always be privilege, politically, against others, till at least Somalia achieved peace.
    This is the background information which will explain to you as to why the UN’s offices had readily accepted the argument of Hassan Culusow, even when they could see how that will play badly in Puntland.
    Lets hope Prof Gas, will regroup and start thinking afresh in terms of what he has to do in-order to compete against Hassan Culusow and his political clique in Mogadishu, who are been supported openly by the international community (IC) and her UN’s good offices in Somalia.
    February 9, 2016 Dhako
  - Osman,
    Well, firstly the name is “Dhako” (as in “head”). And, secondly, I do agree with you much of the analysis about the origin of Puntland’s political own goal, which is very much in evident nowadays. Although, you and I, obviously, disagree many things in regards to the “fate” of the Khatumo state. However, where I agree with you easily is on the prospect of Khatumo helping Prof Gas, in his struggle against Hassan Culusow, if he had played his card rather differently.
    Moreover, considering how Gal-Mudug,which is not even a complete state have won the price of being considered as a member of good standing when it comes to who is a stake-holder in Somalia’s musical chairs, then he in turn should have been clever to say (nay, insist) that Khatumo is also a state of its own, in that political dispensation.
    And therefore, in that eventuality, he could have in his political column: such as Jubbaland, Puntland, and of course, Khatumo state. Where as, Hassan Culusow, is counting on the South-West, Gal-Mudug, Hiiraan/Shabelle-Dhexe, to give him a leg up when it comes to the presidential election in this September.
    Consequently, I think, once Gal-Mudug was, politically, “legitimized” (against very edicts of the provisional constitution, which state that only two regions and more can form a political state within the Somalia’s constitution) then he should of said it, that: two can play this fictitious game. And therefore, insist, that, in that case, Khatumo is also State, even, if the bulk of Khatumo state is in the hand of Somaliland.
    After all, Gal-Mudug, doesn’t control even two complete cities, much less it being a political state with two regions under its belt. Hence if he had played his card this way, he would have not come across as a sore loser when he is against the 4.5 formulation, since everyone knows that Somalia can’t have a one-person-one-vote in this year.
    This is the reason, I kept saying, Prof Gas, is really not a politician (in the true sense of the word). But rather, he is a technocrat, who seems to think that Somalia is a normal state where arguments gets to be evaluated on their on terms; as opposed to dysfunctional state, in which political argument, or at least whose argument gets to be prevail against others, is always “contingent” on the fact of who has the power to complicate the agenda of others, such as UN’s offices in Somalia.
    Hence, since Mogadishu and its environment has the potential to be a endless geopolitical trouble-makers for the region and the wider world due to the insurgency-infested reality of that city, then the UN and the international community will always bend their ears for the arguments of those who hail from that city and its environment much more readily than they would do for others, including even to Somaliland.
    Subsequently, that, “biting” political reality ought to have been a six-sense sort of “accepted wisdom” in the mind of highly learned man, like Prof Gas. But, apparently he seems to forget, that, if it comes down to it, the UN and the rest of the international community (IC) will always side with the agenda of those who are ruling Mogadishu.
    And the reason for it, is that since Mogadishu has the capacity to be persistent trouble-maker for the rest of the world, if they are not politically satisfied. And this will simply mean the international community (IC) and her UN’s good offices, will always pay double attention to the arguments of the Mogadishu’s elites.
    Of course, that is unfair to many Somali. But the reality is that the international community (IC) only cares about Somalia in so far as what damage Somalis could do the peace and tranquility of the region and the wider world. And since only Mogadishu with her endless stream of insurgency has that capacity of being a “trouble-making” place, then, I am afraid, the international community (IC) will only care for those who could do a damage to them. Not self-governing entities, like Somaliland and Puntland, who had established a law-and-order without anyone teaching them how to do it.
    In other words, like Afghanistan, whereby, the powers-that-be, have accepted that for that place to be at peace with itself and with others, then the Taliban-supporting-Pashtun-tribesmen, must always be given the chance to rule Afghanistan against others, like the manner Hamid Karzai as well as the current president Ahraf Ghani, were made a presidents of that place, since both of these gentlemen, are Pashtun tribesmen.
    And, similarly, it seems, ever since, Col. Abdilahi Yusuf (Yey) was evicted from power back in the 2008, the international community (IC) has accepted that, the Pashtun-of-Somalia (i.e., the Mogadishu’s elites) must always be privilege, politically, against others, till at least Somalia achieved peace.
    This is the background information which will explain to you as to why the UN’s offices had readily accepted the argument of Hassan Culusow, even when they could see how that will play badly in Puntland.
    Lets hope Prof Gas, will regroup and start thinking afresh in terms of what he has to do in-order to compete against Hassan Culusow and his political clique in Mogadishu, who are been supported openly by the international community (IC) and her UN’s good offices in Somalia.
    February 9, 2016 Dhako
    - Dhako
      Sorry for the missing “k”, which happily is now inserted.
      I agree with much you have said except your suggestion that what sways the international community (IC) is the power of “trouble-making” which you say is the preserve of Culusow and his camp. Far from this being helpful to him, it is precisely because of its troubles that Mogadishu has been ignored until recently in favour of Puntland and Somaliland for their relative peace and stability.
      What changed is the success of Culusow to change the balance of power by fathering three dubious States supporting him and, even better, further isolating Puntland by winning over Jubaland, its only partner. The international community are guided by realpolitik such that when the south was politically down, it was Puntland that was the dominant and the darling of the IC; and now fortunes have changed with Culusow who has a stronger political hand and Gaas almost empty-handed, even deserted by Jubaland. Culusow, once he has tasted victory over his Puntland nemesis would continue to pile on the pressure, further marginalising PL – unless there is a drastic and urgent change of policy and strategy on the part of PL which is a moot point under Gaas.
      February 9, 2016 Osman Omar Hassan
    - Dhako
      Sorry for the missing “k”, which happily is now inserted.
      I agree with much you have said except your suggestion that what sways the international community (IC) is the power of “trouble-making” which you say is the preserve of Culusow and his camp. Far from this being helpful to him, it is precisely because of its troubles that Mogadishu has been ignored until recently in favour of Puntland and Somaliland for their relative peace and stability.
      What changed is the success of Culusow to change the balance of power by fathering three dubious States supporting him and, even better, further isolating Puntland by winning over Jubaland, its only partner. The international community are guided by realpolitik such that when the south was politically down, it was Puntland that was the dominant and the darling of the IC; and now fortunes have changed with Culusow who has a stronger political hand and Gaas almost empty-handed, even deserted by Jubaland. Culusow, once he has tasted victory over his Puntland nemesis would continue to pile on the pressure, further marginalising PL – unless there is a drastic and urgent change of policy and strategy on the part of PL which is a moot point under Gaas.
      February 9, 2016 Osman Omar Hassan
- Dhako
  I join your verdict on Abdiwelli Gaas Puntland Presidency as a disaster. But he shares that blame with the whole Puntland political elite whose failures and shortsightedness go back all the way to his predecessors as the author pointed out. Puntland is a victim of its own foolhardy self-delusion in believing that its temporary preeminence in the past, born of its relative success since its establishment in 1998 against the turmoil in the rest of southern Somalia, would endure and they would remain the top dog in Somalia for ever. That delusion was nourished partly by the international community who pampered the only functioning bit in former Italian somaliland.
  Thus, until recently, all roads would lead to Garawe where almost all deals on Somalia were done. This has bred a certain arrogance and self- importance particularly innate in the character of Abdiwelli Gaas that they can dictate to the rest of Somalia and even the international community. This might have been possible in the past but not any longer with new shifting balances of power now much in favour of Hassan Culusow. Unlike Puntland, he has been able to build alliances mainly against Puntland, making use of the millions of dollars of State resources he is using for his own political ends. His greates success was to wean Jubaland’s wayward Ahmed Madoobe from his alliance with Puntland – a damning indictment of Abdiwelli that his partner would pull this sudden betrayal surprise right in front of his own eyes, apparently neither aware of its looming nor making serious efforts to foil it.
  Where does Puntland goes from here? Getting rid of Abdiwelli right now is no panacea. It could even make matters worse. Puntland has to learn from its past mistakes and accept the realities that they no longer the top dog in Somalia. They should beat Hassan Culusow in his own game and win alliances: first to renounce its preposterous claim to the SSC regions and support Khatumo in addition to regaining Jubaland’s alliance. These could form a formidable alliance and a counter weight to Culusow’s cobbled fragile alliance, a realignment of forces which could not be ignored by the SRSG.
  Once Puntland adopts this strategy, and accept working within the 4.5 formula, it could defeat Culusow in his own game and deny him the Presidency not only for the good of Puntland but for Somalia.
  February 9, 2016 Osman Omar Hassan
- I agree with this analysis.
  In my opinion, Dr. Abdiweli and President Hassan have many things in common, not the least of which is that both believe in playing politics than governing a nation (they see money). Probably many of you saw the speech president Hassan Sheikh gave this week to the parliament in Mogadishu. In this confusing and rhetoric speech, empty in substances, the president concludes what’s failing us is “politics”. He repeated this word many times to suggest our differences in “politics” are the only thing relevant—to rebuild the nation—-“And the rest of the world wouldn’t fix it for us”, to quote what he said.
  I was flabbergasted! It was clear to me that the president doesn’t understand the difference between governance and politics. Dr. Abdiweli is also a victim of his lack of understanding what governing means. There lays his failure, not recognizing that bidding his people against one another is not how you become a leader of today’s Somalia: antagonizing against the formation of SSC state, initiating tribal war and sabotaging Gal-Mudug state, or undermining Jubaland state, are all about playing politics on his part; not governing. President Hassan and Abdiweli play the same politics (how to get elected again); little to do with governance. Contrary to what these guys believe, however, Somalia needs a governing philosophy, not the same old tribal rivalry and warlord mentality (politics). But this is what both offer the Somali people. But do they know they both failed the public?
  February 9, 2016 Ali Bahar
  - Dr ali
    As you have said, the common denominator between Culusow and Gaas is their desire to remain in power. But where as Culusow does not even have power over any territory other than Ville Somalia, at least Gaas runs a territory with rudimentary governance to the extent that there are a modicum of law enforcement and the machinery of justice. But it has as yet none of the requirements for the exercise of democracy such as political parties and free elections. This is one of the areas where the professor has failed to make progress.
    I am happy you pointed out his incomprehensible pointless claim on the SSC regions to frustrate their right to a State. This has been mutually harmful to the SSC people as well as Puntland as is we now clearly see it. Unfortunately, he shares this delusion of a Greater Puntland at least in name with the whole political elite of PL. Witness that the author, Ali Abdulle, like the rest of his peers, is silent on this issue and not for the same time.
    February 9, 2016 Osman Omar Hassan
  - Dr ali
    As you have said, the common denominator between Culusow and Gaas is their desire to remain in power. But where as Culusow does not even have power over any territory other than Ville Somalia, at least Gaas runs a territory with rudimentary governance to the extent that there are a modicum of law enforcement and the machinery of justice. But it has as yet none of the requirements for the exercise of democracy such as political parties and free elections. This is one of the areas where the professor has failed to make progress.
    I am happy you pointed out his incomprehensible pointless claim on the SSC regions to frustrate their right to a State. This has been mutually harmful to the SSC people as well as Puntland as is we now clearly see it. Unfortunately, he shares this delusion of a Greater Puntland at least in name with the whole political elite of PL. Witness that the author, Ali Abdulle, like the rest of his peers, is silent on this issue and not for the same time.
    February 9, 2016 Osman Omar Hassan
- I agree with this analysis.
  In my opinion, Dr. Abdiweli and President Hassan have many things in common, not the least of which is that both believe in playing politics than governing a nation (they see money). Probably many of you saw the speech president Hassan Sheikh gave this week to the parliament in Mogadishu. In this confusing and rhetoric speech, empty in substances, the president concludes what’s failing us is “politics”. He repeated this word many times to suggest our differences in “politics” are the only thing relevant—to rebuild the nation—-“And the rest of the world wouldn’t fix it for us”, to quote what he said.
  I was flabbergasted! It was clear to me that the president doesn’t understand the difference between governance and politics. Dr. Abdiweli is also a victim of his lack of understanding what governing means. There lays his failure, not recognizing that bidding his people against one another is not how you become a leader of today’s Somalia: antagonizing against the formation of SSC state, initiating tribal war and sabotaging Gal-Mudug state, or undermining Jubaland state, are all about playing politics on his part; not governing. President Hassan and Abdiweli play the same politics (how to get elected again); little to do with governance. Contrary to what these guys believe, however, Somalia needs a governing philosophy, not the same old tribal rivalry and warlord mentality (politics). But this is what both offer the Somali people. But do they know they both failed the public?
  February 9, 2016 Ali Bahar
Good Analysis, and, although, I am not well-versed in the dark-alleys of Puntland’s internal tribal politicking, particularly what is going on in Bosaso and how its genesis have come about, but, I will say this. And, that is, Prof Gas, has been a unmitigated disaster at politics – both locally in Puntland and in the wider Somali’s world. Hence, I couldn’t really believed how he was so solipsistic, inept, and down-right untutored in the art of political deal-making. Even to the point that he had lose – glaringly and openly – to Hassan Culusow of Mogadishu, particularly when it comes to influencing the UN’s pen-pushers in Somalia, in-terms of where Somalia should go come the change-over of the presidential selection in this September.
Moreover, the UN made her “choice”, admittedly a bad one for Puntland. But the fault lays with Prof Gas, who seemed to come across, as if he has been blind-sided by the UN’s move. Although, everyone could of seen it easily that the UN will put her thump on the scale, eventually, particularly in the event of a failure of agreement between the Somalis stake-holders in their various inconclusive meetings. Hence, that he was so bad in reading the “political tea-leaves”, particularly where the eventual UN’s position will be, is really an indictment of the highest order.
However, now that the “deeds” is done, and considering that UN is not going back on its word, by saying lets open this particularly Pandora’s box, in which Somalis could start to re-litigate their differences, afresh, then the option open to Puntland is really unenviable.
And by that I mean, there is no way the UN will give any “sotto-voce” gentlemen’s sort of agreement in which upon it Hassan Culusow could be disbar in running for a second term, in exchange of Puntland coming in from the cold and accepting the deal the UN had forced through. Which is what the author of this article seems to insinuates, or even suggest as one possibility in which upon its political realization, Puntland could then come in from the cold (as it where).
Hence, the UN seems so invested heavily in to the maintenance of a facade which says, that Somalia is recovering state (not a failed state), whereby, the government is legitimate and all stake-holders have agreed the way forward. Of course, its patently obvious that Somalia is far from that happy picture as anything could be possible be. But the UN’s hired-apparatchiks, such as their head-honcho in Somalia, namely a certain Mr Keating, seems to be oblivious to any other political reality other than UN’s own fiction.
And, I suspect that may be largely to do with the fact that UN has effectively concluded that Somalia is endless problem, and they want to cut their losses and leave her in the lurch, once this transition is completed, come September of this year, and once the Al-Shabaab’s troubles are contained into the country-side. Hence, its a PR shell-game what the UN has in mind in here. In particularly in the sense of saying, that we have helped Somalia to come out from her failed status into a recovering state. And therefore, once this transition is done, so our job of “baby-sitting” Somalia, in political term, will also be at an end.
All in all, I think Puntland need to re-group and start thinking how to make a best hand out of a miserable sets of political cards, in which, Prof Gas, had seen fit to “collect” for Puntland, particularly from the Political high-stake Casino that is Somalia’s politicking reality in this transitional period.
Consequently, he really need to up his game. And in that context, he need to spend some time in retail politics, in the sense of wooing the various stake-holders in Somalia’s politics, such as Sharif Sakin of Baidabo, and others within the Mogadishu’s political elites. And, he should do that so that he will have to genuinely convinced them that Hassan Culusow and his conspiratorial Dam-Jadiid’s clique, are bad news for every one, not only for Puntland.
Of course, so long as Prof Gas come across to others as if he is “privileging” the position of Puntland, politically, to the exclusion of everyone else’s political interest, then he will not have any luck in cobbling together a “political coalition” against Hassan Culusow and his Dam-Jadiid’s clique.
Hence, he need to drop, speedily, the arrogance dismissiveness in which he treat others with, along with the customary stiff-upper-lip haughtiness in which one detects from his political mutterings when it comes to seriously negotiating with others in the political arena. And that is doubly urgent now, since his old game of “Plan A” has been comprehensively defeated. And therefore he needs a new “Plan B”, which should start from the deep conviction that will suggest to him the political need to build a “coalition partners” within the various stake-holders, so that, he (or his preferred candidate for the presidency) can be a “contender” for high-office at best, within Somalia after September hand-over. Or at worse, Puntland’s interest will be fully “respected” by whoever comes after the hand-over.
And that means, he should work tirelessly how a new group of politicians can take the helm, politically, at Mogadishu, whereby, Puntland’s political interest will not be a non-starter with them, as it currently is with Hassan Culusow and his Dam-Jadiid’s clique.
Subsequently the questions are: can Prof Gas pull off such a feat of “coalition-building”? Or even swallow his pride – long enough – to understand that he has been bested comprehensively by Hassan Culusow in this “first round”; and therefore he should come prepare for the “second round” with a new and a better plan B? Well we shall see soon enough, I suppose.
February 9, 2016 Dhako
Gentlemen,
You may need to hold your horses here; I believe it’s rather too early to write puntland’s obituary despite the recent political setback in Mogadishu. I think Abdiweli has still too many cards in his hands if he is clever enough to play them right. To begin with, Puntland is the only functioning regional administration in Somalia to date. All other so-called regional administrations are in name only. So for example, if Puntland decides to boycott this year’s so-called elections, I can guarantee you that the new government will have no legitimacy whatsoever after it loses the largest and the only functioning regional administration which was part of the union. I believe if they stick to their guns, the British Governor General in charge now will have no choice but to go back to the drawing board and come up with a formula that may satisfy Puntland. However, Puntland needs to reconsider its adamant objection of helping establish a new regional administration shared by Dhulbahante and Warsangeli clans, which could give them them a reliable ally in Somali politics in the future. And as far as Ahmed Madoobe’s desertion, I think for someone who is still struggling to establish a viable regional administration, Ahmed Madoobe needs Puntland much more than Puntland needs him. But his desertion has dealt an irrevocable harm to that relationship.
February 9, 2016 Ahmed Baasto
Gentlemen,
You may need to hold your horses here; I believe it’s rather too early to write puntland’s obituary despite the recent political setback in Mogadishu. I think Abdiweli has still too many cards in his hands if he is clever enough to play them right. To begin with, Puntland is the only functioning regional administration in Somalia to date. All other so-called regional administrations are in name only. So for example, if Puntland decides to boycott this year’s so-called elections, I can guarantee you that the new government will have no legitimacy whatsoever after it loses the largest and the only functioning regional administration which was part of the union. I believe if they stick to their guns, the British Governor General in charge now will have no choice but to go back to the drawing board and come up with a formula that may satisfy Puntland. However, Puntland needs to reconsider its adamant objection of helping establish a new regional administration shared by Dhulbahante and Warsangeli clans, which could give them them a reliable ally in Somali politics in the future. And as far as Ahmed Madoobe’s desertion, I think for someone who is still struggling to establish a viable regional administration, Ahmed Madoobe needs Puntland much more than Puntland needs him. But his desertion has dealt an irrevocable harm to that relationship.
February 9, 2016 Ahmed Baasto
While all our eyes were on Puntland, it seems most of us tend to have overlooked that the secessionist enclave, which has been allocated the same number of seats as that of tiny Galmudug, didn’t fare better than Puntland either. Had they not been included in the suggested dispensation, the secessionists would have had a field day, celebrating Puntland’s seeming political predicament. But the apparent muted/subdued response of the enclave’s inhabitants (including Dhako’s on this page) tells us that Somaliland has suffered a stinging political setback and is embarrassingly nursing its wounds in silence.
As for Abdiweli, I believe he is trying to placate the public but was in fact on board with the 4.5 formula, at least initially. We will see if he easily “relents” in the next few days.
February 10, 2016 Hersi Farah
- Hersi
  You are suggesting that the one-clan secessionist enclave calling itself Somaliland covets, like Puntland and others, to get as many seats as possible in the Somali Federal Parliament. It is not as simple as that.
  Officially, they don’t, if one is to judge by their statements, actions and incessant claim that they are a separate independent country and have nothing to do with Somalia. On the other hand, those individual MPs hailing from the clan who enter the federal parliament on the clan’s quota for their own gainful pursuits are more loyal to SL than Somalia and would oppose any action detrimental or hostile to the interest or independence of the enclave.
  It is a position Hassan Culusow accepts and exploits for his own political ends. That is why there is never any censure or condemnation of Somaliland’s occupation of the SSC regions and the daily crimes it commits. And that is why unacceptable concessions have been given to the enclave at the Somalia/Somaliland talks, at which Somaliland has been accepted as another separate country on par with Somalia. Despite appearances and actions to the contrary, Somaliland can only appreciate the stand of its “renegades” in the Somali federal parliament. But the bottom line is that they expend no time to have a share in the Somali parliament. To do so is to acknowledge the are part of Somalia.
  February 10, 2016 Osman Omar Hassan
  - Osman,
    I understand they have always been there since the beginning even though they have never officially acknowledged that they have had reps in parliament. However, if you look at the recently released list of regional administrations, Somaliland’s name is included and gets the same number of seats that everyone else gets (Their goal: Plan A: Secession; Plan B: North-South federation). And this is particularly worrisome for them since the head of the UN mission in Somalia is from Britain, a nation which provides them the very sustenance that enables them to launch their aggression against SSC people!
    February 10, 2016 Hersi Farah
    - Hersi
      The Somali government has to perforce allocate parliamentary seats to Somaliland whether the latter likes it or not because they consider it as part of Somalia as does the International Community. For the federal government to do otherwise, and not allocate seats to Somaliland, is tantamount to recognizing the break-up of Somalia, something Culusow dare not openly do- at least for now.
      But despite these allocations, Somaliland has no interest to take them on the grounds that they are a a separate country from Somalia, and, what is worse, even the Somali government treat them as such, in which case the UN and its SRSG are under no compulsion to treat them differently.
      Perhaps you heard the other day the speech of the enclave’s so-called foreign minister. He said they are eager to urgently resume the talks/negotiations with the Somali government. What is the urgency? Because they are aware they cannot get a better deal from Somalia than from Culusow. Hence, the enclave’s frantic race against time with the approaching end of his tenure round the corner.
      In a nutshell, Culusow is the current cancer that is destroying Somalia and its unity.
      February 10, 2016 Osman Omar Hassan
    - Hersi
      The Somali government has to perforce allocate parliamentary seats to Somaliland whether the latter likes it or not because they consider it as part of Somalia as does the International Community. For the federal government to do otherwise, and not allocate seats to Somaliland, is tantamount to recognizing the break-up of Somalia, something Culusow dare not openly do- at least for now.
      But despite these allocations, Somaliland has no interest to take them on the grounds that they are a a separate country from Somalia, and, what is worse, even the Somali government treat them as such, in which case the UN and its SRSG are under no compulsion to treat them differently.
      Perhaps you heard the other day the speech of the enclave’s so-called foreign minister. He said they are eager to urgently resume the talks/negotiations with the Somali government. What is the urgency? Because they are aware they cannot get a better deal from Somalia than from Culusow. Hence, the enclave’s frantic race against time with the approaching end of his tenure round the corner.
      In a nutshell, Culusow is the current cancer that is destroying Somalia and its unity.
      February 10, 2016 Osman Omar Hassan
  - Osman,
    I understand they have always been there since the beginning even though they have never officially acknowledged that they have had reps in parliament. However, if you look at the recently released list of regional administrations, Somaliland’s name is included and gets the same number of seats that everyone else gets (Their goal: Plan A: Secession; Plan B: North-South federation). And this is particularly worrisome for them since the head of the UN mission in Somalia is from Britain, a nation which provides them the very sustenance that enables them to launch their aggression against SSC people!
    February 10, 2016 Hersi Farah
- Hersi
  You are suggesting that the one-clan secessionist enclave calling itself Somaliland covets, like Puntland and others, to get as many seats as possible in the Somali Federal Parliament. It is not as simple as that.
  Officially, they don’t, if one is to judge by their statements, actions and incessant claim that they are a separate independent country and have nothing to do with Somalia. On the other hand, those individual MPs hailing from the clan who enter the federal parliament on the clan’s quota for their own gainful pursuits are more loyal to SL than Somalia and would oppose any action detrimental or hostile to the interest or independence of the enclave.
  It is a position Hassan Culusow accepts and exploits for his own political ends. That is why there is never any censure or condemnation of Somaliland’s occupation of the SSC regions and the daily crimes it commits. And that is why unacceptable concessions have been given to the enclave at the Somalia/Somaliland talks, at which Somaliland has been accepted as another separate country on par with Somalia. Despite appearances and actions to the contrary, Somaliland can only appreciate the stand of its “renegades” in the Somali federal parliament. But the bottom line is that they expend no time to have a share in the Somali parliament. To do so is to acknowledge the are part of Somalia.
  February 10, 2016 Osman Omar Hassan
While all our eyes were on Puntland, it seems most of us tend to have overlooked that the secessionist enclave, which has been allocated the same number of seats as that of tiny Galmudug, didn’t fare better than Puntland either. Had they not been included in the suggested dispensation, the secessionists would have had a field day, celebrating Puntland’s seeming political predicament. But the apparent muted/subdued response of the enclave’s inhabitants (including Dhako’s on this page) tells us that Somaliland has suffered a stinging political setback and is embarrassingly nursing its wounds in silence.
As for Abdiweli, I believe he is trying to placate the public but was in fact on board with the 4.5 formula, at least initially. We will see if he easily “relents” in the next few days.
February 10, 2016 Hersi Farah
This is not a seismic turbulence, it is an earth quake of about 9.0 magnitude. For outsiders, it is nothing but about the 3.0. Get it????????????????????
February 14, 2016 Hussein Ahmed
Hello,Madawyne Weli of P/land announced that he may succeed from Mogadishu today in his interview with Kaaha Bari journal in Bossaso. Brother, it is getting worse than we all thought!!!!
February 14, 2016 Hussein Ahmed
Hello,Madawyne Weli of P/land announced that he may succeed from Mogadishu today in his interview with Kaaha Bari journal in Bossaso. Brother, it is getting worse than we all thought!!!!
February 14, 2016 Hussein Ahmed
My dear comrades, though I respect your optimism in somalias current affairs, one must relise that Somalia is an African country and must be respected within that context. Somalias case is further complicated by tribalism which is above nation and religion.
In terms of political evolution Somalia must be seen through the eyes of Stone Age Europe where society consisted of rulers and peasants.
In that respect, the contemporary Somali rulers are the muqdishans which makes the provinces politically insignificant.
Going back to puntlands isolation, it seems that puntlanders are playing the civilised politics of contemporary Europe. Respect for the constitution is the ussual rhetoric of puntlanders. they failed to grasp the famous proverb ”if you are in rome,act like the romans”.
Puntland have failed to notice that a constitution is a piece of paper not power.
The fact that puntland had placed so much trust in the Somali constitution shows their total misjudgment of somalis and the rule of the gun.
One simple example is galmudug which gained substantial political power only because they slaughtered puntlanders. I am afraid that puntland is not prepared to play the politics of the gun which in turn rendered their political and economic power useless.
puntland can however use the nationalist rhethoric to try and mobilise a wider public within the somali society, a notion which is likely to lead to an uprising. this uprising could disturb the puntland order and their politicians are not prepared to play that gamble.
in terms of puntland recognising khaatumo state,i think this is a possibility in the near future. however,this would also ensure that the somali public were held hostage by the few and that their constitution was totally discredited. this would undouptedly be a victory for reer xamar which aim to create weak federal states which they can oppress.
February 18, 2016 hebal haatuf