By Abdullahi A. Nor

President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s governance style, market by unilateral decision-making and constitutional overreach, has fostered a tense political atmosphere in Somalia. His approach is increasingly straining the delicate balance between the federal government and the Federal Member States, raising serious concerns about the future of Somalia’s unity and stability. The very foundation of the federal system is being undermined, with potentially far-reaching consequences for the country’s political cohesion and long-term peace.

The ongoing National Consultative Council (NCC) meeting comes at a time when Somalia faces numerous internal challenges, including inter-clan conflicts, the ongoing threat of Al-Shabaab, droughts, floods, food insecurity and deepening political instability. The possibility of more regions following Somaliland’s path is not far-fetched. As frustration with the Federal Government grows, other federal member states may decide that their interests are better served through greater autonomy or outright independence.

Although President Hassan aims to use the National Consultative Council (NCC) as a platform to advance his agenda of consolidating power and asserting greater control over Somalia’s Federal Member States, the council’s mandate does not align with such ambitions. The NCC was established as a forum for dialogue and collaboration between the federal government and the member states, not as a legislative body with the authority to enact or impose constitutional changes.

While Puntland successfully held its presidential election on time – 8 January despite the relentless negative interference from President Hassan. Most of other Federal Member States have seen their elections delayed by President Hassan in contravention of chapter 12 (Federal Member States) Articles 120 – Institutions of FMS and 121 – Principals of constitutions, contributing to further instability. This has fueled distrust between the federal government and the FMS, with Puntland and others claiming that the delays are part of a broader effort to consolidate power in Mogadishu.

In a bold call for unity, Puntland State President, Mr. Said Abdullahi Deni, has announced that Puntland is ready to initiate efforts to resolve the prolonged political discord with the Federal Government of Somalia. This discord, which has persisted for the best part of two years, has significantly strained relations between Somalia’s federal member states and the central government, risking further fragmentation in an already divided nation. Speaking at the Puntland Development and Research Center (PDRC) conference on Sept 23, President Deni expressed deep concern over Somalia’s political trajectory, warning that the country could face further disintegration if meaningful political dialogue is not pursued. His warning was stark: if Somalia’s leadership continues on its current path, other regions may follow Somaliland’s example and declare independence. Somaliland, which declared independence in 1991 following the collapse of Somalia’s central government, has long been a symbol of the dangers of political fragmentation in the country.

President Deni also referenced previous reconciliation attempts made by former Somali Presidents Sharif Sheikh Ahmed and Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo soon after the inauguration of President Deni’s 2^nd term in Feb 2024, who sought to bridge the divide between the federal government and the Puntland member state. His remarks were a clear call to action, urging all stakeholders to prioritize national reconciliation and avoid political brinkmanship that could further destabilize the country. However, these efforts were reportedly rebuffed by President Hassan, casting doubt on the current administration’s willingness to engage in constructive dialogue.

As soon as the ball of reconciliation, this time round, landed in President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s court; as usual, he turned the offer down. The Federal Government has decided not to entertain Puntland’s offer for reconciliation and work toward healing the political rift that threatens Somalia’s future. The stakes are high, as failure to engage in dialogue could result in the disintegration of Somalia as a unified state.

According to reliable sources close to the ongoing National Consultative Council (NCC) meeting, the President of Jubaland, Mr. Ahmed Islam Madobe, has categorically rejected any discussion on the extension of the Federal Member States’ mandates, constitutional amendments, or the shift to universal suffrage elections in the absence of key stakeholders. He emphasized that such crucial topics cannot be addressed without the participation of Puntland and the interim administration of Khatumo State. President Madobe’s stance reflects his concern that making decisions on these significant issues without the full involvement of all federal member states risks further undermining the legitimacy of the NCC and exacerbating Somalia’s political crisis. His firm opposition and President Ahmed Islam declaration that Jubaland State will have its election cycle for the elected offices on November as per the Jubaland Constitution and the same declaration was made by Southwest President and this signals a growing divide over how Somalia should navigate its future political framework, particularly given the federal system’s delicate balance of power.

In addition to President Ahmed Madobe of Jubaland’s refusal to engage in the discussion of the NCC agenda, the Himilo Qaran party, headed by former President Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, has also issued a press release outlining seven critical points. Among the most significant is the party’s strong stance against any extension for either the Federal Member States (FMS) or the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS). The statement warns President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud to cease his unconstitutional maneuvers, which are seen as an attempt to pressure and manipulate the NCC members. Himilo Qaran made it unequivocally clear that it will not, under any circumstances, accept these tactics or the political power grabs being pursued by the President. The party’s firm stance adds to the growing opposition within Somalia, signaling widespread resistance to President Hassan’s attempts to centralize power and alter the political landscape without broader consensus.

The ongoing National Consultative Council (NCC) meeting in Mogadishu holds little promise for meaningful outcomes, as Puntland Federal Member State is not participating. Given that the NCC’s decision-making process is based on consensus rather than majority rule, Puntland’s absence significantly undermines the legitimacy of any decisions reached. Without the full participation of all Federal Member States, including Puntland, the resolutions from the meeting are unlikely to be implemented effectively and may be considered “dead on arrival.” This situation reflects the deepening rift between the Federal Government and key regional administrations, complicating efforts toward national unity and stability.

Chapter Five, Articles 50 to 54 of the Provisional Constitution of the Federal Republic of Somalia comprehensively details the working relationship between the Federal Member States (FMS) and the Federal Government of Somalia, emphasizing collaboration and power-sharing. These provisions reinforce the idea that governance in Somalia is based on federal principles, requiring consensus and shared responsibility between the center and the FMS. The National Consultative Council (NCC), as a forum for dialogue, as sated earlier, is not a legislative body and therefore cannot approve amendments to the constitution or national frameworks like the election format. Its role is purely consultative, and decisions made by the NCC must go through the proper legal process to be valid.

Even the Federal Parliament, which holds legislative authority, does not have the unilateral power to amend the constitution without extensive consultation with the public, particularly the populations of the Federal Member States. Constitutional amendments require the input and approval of the wider Somali public, ensuring that the voices of all regions are heard and that changes reflect national consensus. The constitution is a covenant between the people and their government, and any modifications must respect the federal system and the principles of inclusivity and participation enshrined in it. Therefore, any attempts to bypass these procedures would be illegitimate and could risk further division in the country.

The 10th National Consultative Council (NCC) meeting, although its agenda has not been publicly disclosed, reportedly includes discussions on the following key topics: 1) security, 2) democratization, 3), approval of the resolutions from the 9th NCC meeting and 4) illegal extension of the mandate of the FMS President’s. These topics are highly contentious, particularly among the Federal Member States of South West State and Jubaland, both of which have expressed deep grievances over the security arrangements in Somalia post-ATMIS (African Union Transition Mission in Somalia).

The democratization topic is perhaps the most controversial. President Hassan, acting in what many describe as an authoritarian manner, has unilaterally discarded the parliamentary framework outlined in the Provisional Constitution in favor of a presidential model without any consultation or following the proper legal process. He has announced a shift from the current indirect election system to universal suffrage at a time the security of the country wouldn’t allow such exercise; wherein the President would have the authority to appoint and dismiss the Prime Minister at will. Additionally, he has drafted a new election law that allows only three political parties which again contradicting Article (1) the declaration of the Federal Republic of Somalia; without input from key stakeholders, sparking widespread concern.

These actions, particularly the abandonment of the established democratic framework and the unilateral changes of the electoral law, are seen as dangerous oversteps. They have been cited as major factors behind Puntland Federal Member State’s decision to sever ties with the Federal Government. Puntland’s discontent serves as a cautionary tale, highlighting the broader risks of centralization and disregard for federal principles. On top of these missteps, it’s worth noting that President Hassan has dismissed all the Independent Commissions including the Electoral Commission in the first three months into his second term with the view to replace them with hand-picked loyalists. Such actions only exacerbate the political crisis, and the failure to engage Federal Member States in the democratization process is a dangerous misstep.

Compounding this, the agenda topics—including security, democratization, and the approval of previous resolutions—touch on some of the most divisive issues in Somali politics. Federal Member States like South West and Jubaland have voiced serious concerns about the security arrangements post-ATMIS, especially after President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s unilateral defense pact with Egypt, signed without consultation, a violation of Article 53 of the Provisional Federal Constitution (PFC). This disregard for federal consultation fuels distrust, making cooperation on security nearly impossible.

The NCC’s failure to address these core issues in an inclusive and collaborative manner will likely accelerate political fragmentation rather than foster unity. As the council convenes amidst these tensions, it is becoming increasingly clear that its decisions, lacking national consensus and Federal Member State support, will carry little weight and may deepen Somalia’s political crisis.

In conclusion,

The 10th National Consultative Council (NCC) meeting underscores the growing fractures within Somalia’s federal system and highlights the deepening distrust between the Federal Government and Federal Member States. The absence of Puntland from the proceedings, combined with President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s unilateral governance approach, renders the outcomes of the meeting both precarious and potentially ineffective. Without the engagement and consensus of all federal entities, particularly in such critical matters as security, democratization, and constitutional amendments, Somalia risks further fragmentation and political instability.

As the nation faces significant internal and external threats, genuine dialogue and adherence to the federal principles enshrined in the Provisional Constitution are essential to avoid further division and to ensure a path toward national unity and lasting peace. If this opportunity for reconciliation and reform is squandered, the political rift could deepen, pushing Somalia closer to disintegration.

Abdullahi Ahmed Nor
Email: abdullahinor123@gmail.com

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