Politics will save Somalia

By Nicholas Kay

Sitting in Mogadishu, it’s easy to think the world needs to learn from Somalia. As human suffering escalates in Ukraine, Syria, Iraq, Gaza, Libya, South Sudan and the Central African Republic, Somalia looks increasingly stable and hopeful. Is that just a mirage? Or are there genuine grounds for optimism and even lessons to be drawn?

My answer is an emphatic “yes”. Perhaps, as some say, I’m a professional – almost incurable – optimist. But I am not alone. In New York this week, the UN Secretary-General will convene leaders from a growing band of countries, whose collective efforts over the last years mean that today millions of Somalis can dare to dream that more than two decades of hopeless conflict are over.

Who is saving Somalia?

First and foremost Somalis themselves are writing this new chapter in their nation’s troubled history. Their solution is political – and very Somali in nature, combining modernity and tradition. But the international community – in its broadest sense – also has a significant role in the emerging success. African Union forces continue to expand security and government authority across Somalia. In joint operations with Somali forces, AMISOM is depriving the militant group, Al Shabaab, of key towns. It is now possible to see a day when the terrorists will be reduced to a beleaguered group of insurgents, running out of hiding places and increasingly riven with internal disputes. But we should not be under any illusions. Terrorism will not disappear overnight. Nor will military action – however brave and professional – ever deliver a lasting peace.

Peace and security in Somalia will depend ultimately on political solutions. Somalis are rising to that challenge and undertaking a breath-taking feat of political engineering. They have determined that stability depends not on turning the clock back to the Somalia that existed before the state collapsed in 1991, but rather on building an entirely new political construct: a federal, not unitary, state with democratic, not autocratic, governance. Why federal? The political reality in Somalia today is that power – political, military and economic – has dispersed around the regions. A formalized agreement on sharing and devolving that power is the only practicable way forward.